I found the issue with NY data – you will hear in the press the flattening of NY while our data does not show it (nor John Hopkins) – https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/ny-virus-deaths-550-time-april-70225279

You will see in the article they state 13K deaths whereas we are closer 18K – “Nearly 13,000 New Yorkers in all have died since the state’s first coronavirus case was reported March 1, the governor said. The state total doesn’t include more than 4,000 New York City deaths that were blamed on the virus on death certificates but weren’t confirmed by a lab test.”

The concern now is understanding the 4K – is that category growing or is that just some back dated deaths? Are they expected to be tested or will they just be ignored?

Perhaps started all the way back in Sept. 19 and origin more complex than a seafood market according to this article – https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/18/coronavirus-may-started-september-scientists-say-12576961/

More asymptotic issues – in this stat 100% asymptotic – 146/397 at a homeless shelter – https://wercfm.iheart.com/content/2020-04-18-cdc-reviewing-stunning-covid-19-test-results-at-boston-homeless-shelter/?Keyid=socialflow&Pname=local_social&Sc=editorial

I take Vitamin C, Zinc drops (every other day), B12, and Vitamin D drops – support of Vitamin D – https://www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/the-surprising-role-vitamin-d-plays-in-your-immune-health/

Also less than $1 per dose

“"Some studies have shown that vitamin D deficiency is even associated with greater risk of self-reported upper respiratory tract infections," Tolentino says. Further, "low serum levels of calcidiol [a form of vitamin D] are also associated with higher susceptibility to infections like tuberculosis, influenza, and viral infections of the upper respiratory tract," Tolentino says.”

“There are three ways to get vitamin D: through food (since it is naturally occurring in some food), from direct sun exposure on your skin and through supplements.”

Let the public go to beach and parks responsibly? Or we just conclude they cant as much as they cant choose to eat the right foods?

Solar Radiation does help but its not that strong of an indication as we all wish it was….states tested per capita at least 1% to 2%…The figure below could be better if I had actual this year data – this comes from a solar database so its an avg solar radiation for the year by county rolled up to the state – but so far there is an intuitive relationship. R^2 0.13.

As mentioned in past report HVAC design is crucial – there are several takeaways we can deduce from this report – https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article

Viral load matters – staff did not get sick but those sitting in certain airflow spots. HVAC with UVC which is available should be more prevalent vs in labs, nursing home, hospitals, and certain dog facilities. One can add a UVC to your existing AC – replace the bulbs every 1-2 yrs. Spacing and design of restaurants and temp settings should be considered in restaurants.

“The key factor for infection was the direction of the airflow. Of note, patient B3 was afebrile and 1% of the patients in this outbreak were asymptomatic, providing a potential source of outbreaks among the public (7,8). To prevent spread of COVID-19 in restaurants, we recommend strengthening temperature-monitoring surveillance, increasing the distance between tables, and improving ventilation.”

Simple treatment option – lay on stomach – need to practice sleeping like this now – https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-prone-positioning/index.html?

Supporting our industrial animal/food supply chain leads to consequences such as this – as margin compression is so focused in industrialization – https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/17/837530494/workers-advocate-says-south-dakota-pork-plant-delayed-action-on-coronavirus?

“At least 634 employees at the Smithfield Foods facility have tested positive. The facility normally employs 3,700 people, but has stopped meat processing indefinitely after requests by the city’s mayor and South Dakota’s governor.”

“We’ve heard from employees that they consider themselves to be inches apart. That lunchrooms held 500 employees at a time. And that was still occurring until mitigation efforts were being taken the week of April 6.”

Given the interconnected nature of our society certain OLD ways of practice should be resolved – such as healthcare and doctors ability to care that stops at state borders. Hopefully some good will come out of this. Unlike laws which do differ border to border – I don’t see human health changing once you hit a state line – https://reason.com/2020/04/15/physicians-should-be-allowed-to-practice-across-state-lines-and-not-just-during-a-pandemic/?

Reiteration – don’t get yourself to the ventilator stage – at that point the odds fall precipitously – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8230775/amp/Is-proof-live-saving-ventilators-actually-deathtraps.html?

The numbers presented in this report focused on youth infected was interesting – https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-covid-possibly-children.amp?

“According to the North American registry, Virtual PICU Systems, 74 children in the U.S. were admitted to PICUs between March 18 and April 6, signaling an additional 176,190 children were likely infected during this timeframe.” Very annoying how they make a statement without any proof or validation of the extrapolation. This implies those that go PICU represent 0.04% of those infected. Once confirmed a youth have a 0.04% chance to go to ICU. Where did the number come from?

More support the cat is out of the bag hypothesis – https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/?

“Nearly one third of 200 Chelsea residents who gave a drop of blood to researchers on the street this week tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19, a startling indication of how widespread infections have been in the densely populated city.”

“At least 39 residents have died from the virus, and 712 had tested positive as of Tuesday, a rate of about 1,900 cases per 100,000 residents, or almost 2 percent.

But the Mass. General researchers ― who excluded anyone who had tested positive for the virus in the standard nasal swab test ― found that 32 percent of participants have had COVID-19, and many didn’t know it.”

“The doctors used a diagnostic device made by BioMedomics, of Morrisville, N.C., to analyze drops of blood. It resembled an over-the-counter pregnancy test and generated results on the street in about 10 minutes. Although the test hasn’t won the approval of the Food and Drug Administration, Iafrate, the principal investigator, said Mass. General determined it’s reliable.”

Obesity is a big risk for Covid-19 hospital admission– take advantage of quarantine get healthy – https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa415/5818333

“Patients aged <60 years with a BMI between 30-34 were 2.0 (95% 1.6-2.6, p<0.0001) and 1.8

(95% CI 1.2-2.7, p=0.006) times more likely to be admitted to acute and critical care, respectively,

compared to individuals with a BMI <30 (Table 1). Likewise, patients with a BMI >35 and aged <60

years were 2.2 (95% CI 1.7-2.9, p<.0001) and 3.6 (95% CI 2.5-5.3, p=<.0001) times more likely to be

admitted to acute and critical care compared to patients in the same age category who had BMI <30.”

US death difference subsided as the NY numbers are back down – but perhaps weekend lull.

Testing in NY now over 3%. Results still haven’t changed much so they must be still testing the same type of people. Positive/tested finally broke 40% but just barely.

Interestingly S. Korea and US are at the same level of testing per capita. The real issue isn’t about testing straight up – its doing “SMART”testing. Mobilize the testing unit go to the hot spots. Trace using phone records the positive tested there locations for the past few weeks – map it all on map and mobilize the testing units to the hot spots.

Hubei-China the state where Wuhan resides shows a large addition of deaths 1300.

Probably another worthy stat that should be tracked is not just the solar radiation but the fact how much people get into the sun. Many say sun/temp is not the key and they point to countries in middle east as example – but if they have a lifestyle where they cover up and shun the sun can they really be used as evidence against the sun/temp having a positive impact.

Australia has tested 1.5% of population yet only 67 deaths with 6547 confirmed – both very low per capita stats. Southern hemisphere benefits – plus a more outdoorsy lifestyle?

Good news – Italy, Spain, Iran, Switzerland, State of Washington, all still tracking down. Bad news – Brazil, MA, CA,IL, MX, Ireland, Sweden

Bar chart stats/demo fans – enjoy chart below – I have a couple of holes I need to fill in. Overall there is a metric here why a country has 500+ death. The more you have of age,bmi,and population density – its not going to look pretty.