Ugh – https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/rick-bright-trump-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus?

Smells really bad “the Trump administration has“politicised the work of Barda, and has pressured me and other conscientious scientists to fund companies with political connections and efforts that lack scientific merit. “Rushing blindly towards unproven drugs can be disastrous and result in countless more deaths. Science, in service to the health and safety of the American people, must always trump politics.””

For context I didn’t vote for Trump – don’t personally endorse – nor by the way didn’t vote for Hillary – but yes I still voted – it was a vote of no confidence in the system. If you don’t start to vote like that you will get the same thing over and over…

Anyway lets use our critical thinking for this – a drug which is manufactured by 12 different companies and sells for less than $1 a dose used worldwide for treatment of malaria for decades….and there is money to be had to fund companies to push this drug? Vs lets say a drug that cost $1000 a dose – which by the way is not taken worldwide by millions of people for decades yet.

I whole heartedly agree that HCQ is not some panacea drug to be used in ALL cases. However there are studies showing that there is merit when applied early and with zinc and vitamin C. And in terms of a risk/reward – knowing that people take it all over the world for common issue of malaria AND any incremental improvement to avoid death from covid with very low monetary cost seems like a decent trade to me. And perhaps Trump was overly optimistic and rush to jump on it and hence be his typical self – one needs to adapt to this – but seriously a move like this (press release – statement etc.._) sounds like it could do the very thing he is purported to try to no do -countless deaths! Media blitz and partisan debate could potentially close down all these HCQ trials across the world to spite Trump. This would be tragic. Perhaps my logic is messed up but I don’t see it – money usually is a good path to see the truth but money is very limited with HCQ.

The study which continues to be noted among the trump hatters and this article – seem to not have the same merit of investigated journalism/inquiry in terms of the basis of the study that it was initially premised upon which is to question the results – then you need to question the results of the results – have some humility to question everything – even yourself.. See 4/22/20 write up.

On non US partisan but not in the name of partisan news ….the UK is moving forward with a vaccine – with or without Gates help is my question – https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-human-trials-of-a-uk-covid-19-vaccine-get-under-way-11977363

Once again who will line up – what is the risk/reward – I suspect no anti-vacc folks – “Scientists at the University of Oxford say a COVID-19 jab they are developing has an 80% chance of success.”

They did add some reward beyond the 80% chance – “An urgent appeal has been issued for volunteers to take part – with those who do so being offered up to £625. People coming forward must be aged 18 to 55 and in good health.”

Risk is somewhat mitigated with the word “harmless” –

“The Oxford vaccine, called ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, is made from a harmless chimpanzee virus that has been genetically engineered to carry part of the coronavirus. The technique has already been shown to generate strong immune responses in other diseases.”

Not a favorites source for info – but it’s a good reminder to understand the symptom of strokes "FAST": F for face drooping, A for arm weakness, S for speech difficulty and T for time to call 911. – https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html?

Journalism – “seven-fold increase in incidence of sudden stroke in young patients during the past two weeks.” It’s a scary statement – denominator is fewer than 2 people a month – perhaps stress could play a part of this – I suspect this is the most stressful time – or we going to blame it all on Covid?

Well a concern for the people dying due to the economy coming from the UN – https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1062272

“"While dealing with a Covid-19 pandemic, we are also on the brink of a hunger pandemic," David Beasley told the UN’s security council. "There is also a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of Covid-19 than from the virus itself."
Will there be anything available for the super vulnerable as worldwide bailouts now over $8 Trillion.

Santa Clara back in the news – https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/22/santa-clara-county-death-data-shows-20-increase-in-march-suggesting-more-coronavirus-victims-than-previously-known/amp/?

This time they are using some rather simple math death vs. death and showing a 20% increase March on March.

“He said COVID-19 fatalities appear to have accounted for about 41% of the increase in the total number of deaths.”

“Experts said the county death tolls deserve more study but suggest the coronavirus death toll is understated, either because not enough people have been tested or fear of the virus is scaring sick people away from hospitals.”

Vitamin D run is going to make its run now – https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-52371688?

Good thing under $1 dose

“Time to make that change” MJ – https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2020/04/22/Coronavirus-and-obesity-Doctors-take-aim-at-food-industry-over-poor-diets

Article also notes/pushes for govt regulation as history has proven we cant help ourselves in our food choices – history is history – and if you think of certain food as addictive well then consider them drugs and perhaps regulation is a necessary. As Thomas Paine said “while government is there only to keep man from indulging his vices.”

Stanford guys again agitating the system – https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/amp/?

As noted before I am not a Sweden buyer just yet – testing levels are still low relatively speaking. Population density not matching for the state comparison he uses. I think its too hard to compare unsimilar population density responses. IF NJ would have opened up policy then this would be much more comparable to NY. Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming just not states with a significant population density. His concern about Asian states comparison is culture – I think one could make an argument those states culture could be just as different as Asian culture from major metropolitan areas. However I do agree “It should not be taboo to discuss these facts.”

US confirmation and death continue to lead the way. Database changes again military and VA hospital state disappeared – grrrr!

First time NJ higher than NY

Georgia is showing a spike in confirmation.

Maryland looks to be on a steep ramp for Deaths. Many states are still not on a clear trend up or down – e.g. MA, PA, MI

Changed the global view now that we have tested over time. Confirmed/tested allows one to see if testing is changing and anticipate a decline. Amazingly the number is quite flat and not erratic supporting the concept of being able poll vs. test everyone in terms of understanding overall trend. As an individual person trying to understand if I have it I would want to be tested – but this is not what is meant by saying one doesn’t need to test everyone. Testing without changing testing method seem to produce consistent results not just in states but worldwide. Italy changed the trend but still quite linearly since day 53 and continues to decline – which is good news. See the math exercise for Italy below.

Italy and Spain continues the trend down. France latest shows a big drop. Austria is showing a U.

We can actually make a guess at Italy total death toll now with this trend of confirmed/tested. Eventually confirmation is expected to stop (go to zero) in 30 more days. We cant do this for Spain given the upward trend on confirmation/test.

Testing is growing at the following rate

I cut the data down for death/confirmation as the ramp has really flattened so past history was too steep – also R^2 tighten now

So this would produce a total death for Italy at 420K. Death per capita 0.7%.

The math also says the total amount per capita needed to test is 4% – currently 2.5%.

Hopefully this MATH exercise is on the high side of reality.