Today is data day – too much fluff in the press. We got the data to get into the county level for the US – its whole different beast at that level!

Not a good day per update – US jumped 3329 deaths….majority in NY 1560. US death nearly 50K

NY also saw a dramatic drop in confirmation to 168 – likely data error. Now NJ leader of confirmed cases at 4111

Diving down into states – we see over 50% of US death in NY and NJ. In fact NY,NJ, CT, and MA which comingle with each other via mass transit total represent 60.87% of death – in terms of confirmed cases they represent 49.79% of all confirmed case. It would really be hard pressed to think population density and mass transit are not correlated.

At the same time to think what would work for these states should necessarily applicable in the other states given the difference of lifestyle.

As an overall state the population density of RI and NJ are very similar but the difference in confirmation and deaths per capita is a stark difference to what is going on. Below is just a partial statistics we have for each state each county – yes it is the age of information we have a lot more demo data.

You are almost 2X likely to have Covid in NJ then RI and likewise 2X more likely to die if you have Covid in NJ than RI. AND IT IS NOT BECAUSE OF LACK OF TESTING – RI actually has more testing than NJ 4.2% per capita tested. Delving into the county data – we don’t have individual testing data by county. RI also did not bucket their deaths by county – total is 189.

Big difference on a county level NJ has a county that is almost 7X more dense than RI most dense county. Also note the public transportation rate is 4X higher on state level and particularly much higher for the highest dense location. When people bring up race – are they trying to attribute the race genetics or the race likelihood to do certain things or both? There is a race difference here of 4X in the state data – but the county level there are some unique difference which one could not necessarily state being black genetics would make you more likely to get it or die vs. perhaps better to state black race are more likely to commute and live in dense areas. Both Mercer and Union are high level of black race but look at the two highest death county Bergen and Essexx where the black percent is much lower. Bergen also one of the lowest poverty rates in the region. RI same concern – is it because black race more likely to live in place with high density and mass transport vs. just race. In this case, confirmation is much higher in Providence which also commutes 2X more.

Just for comparison and to gain perspective below is Harris County TX. Harris county is much more likely to be more similar to RI than NJ in terms density and public transport. IF race/poverty/lack of insurance is a concern Harris County should see much higher numbers. The positive is the median age is much lower and solar radiation is much better. However if you don’t go outside to socialize or work then it would not help. IF Harris county emulated Rhode Island expect at LEAST 10X from current levels on both confirmed and deaths for Harris County. Rhode Island has plateaued but not turned yet so likely to be higher hence at least.

On the other side of the country LA County which is similar to Harris county – ex the political voting – if Harris County emulated this area then only about 260 more deaths but unfortunately LA county has not turned yet so the end game is not clear – not even plateaued.

Global view – alarming rise in Mexico for confirmed/tested. New York looks to be setting a trend of downward confirm/tested – this is really good sign.

NY,Spain,Italy, and France is continuing to move down in daily deaths. Brazil, Mexico and MA still distinctively rising…

I have over 20 articles/studies reviewed – but today I will sit on them and if they percolate up I will mentioned them this weekend.