Covid 4/28/20

Office discussion perhaps answered – https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

“flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts…….there are little data to support the CDC’s assumption that the number of people who die of flu each year is on average six times greater than the number of flu deaths that are actually confirmed…..While in the past it was justifiable to err on the side of substantially overestimating flu deaths, in order to encourage vaccination and good hygiene, at this point the CDC’s reporting about flu deaths is dangerously misleading the public and even public officials about the comparison between these two viruses. If we incorrectly conclude that COVID-19 is “just another flu,” we may retreat from strategies that appear to be working in minimizing the speed of spread of the virus”

Good points but nonetheless EVEN if it was not right the comparison to 60K is a comparison to 60K – which in the grand scheme of things is small. Certainly the perspective to flu needs to be adjusted.

This is a good segway to these 2 doctors express their concern of lockdown – https://youtu.be/xfLVxx_lBLU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw.

So sorry I just checked Youtube censored Part1 – better watch part 2 before it gets censored – still available now 8 AM. First video was very interesting – I hope someone can do a wayback machine on it…Doesn’t make sense why it got censored.  Update 1:34PM found another link to interview – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bkvkd10tJug 

Here is a much longer (+1hr) video of the two doctors in Kern CA. Didn’t listen to the whole thing but appears to be the same interview…

In general they bring up good points – but just like everything I discuss here lets apply some critical thinking – they are in Kern County. Lets look at Kern County. For perspective I put NY County, King County (WA), Wayne County (MI) – 2nd highest death county in the nation, and Harris County TX for perspective. Kern county certainly seems like a utopia with the smallest population density – limited deaths, lots of sunshine, lowest BMI, lowest median age, hardly any mass transit….

The alarming report from them is the fact their healthy population has a 4-6% confirmed cases. This from their direct testing data ~300/5000 test – they have done 50% of the testing in the county. They did note the mass transit issue.

I am not sold on their comparison with Sweden vs. Norway – that’s not a very good comparison. Nonetheless a good point they addressed in Part 1 – was that quarantine could weaken our immune systems and the second wave will be painful if that was the case.

Not that this brings confidence for me but the Doctor did note the issues I had with HCQ study making the rounds – Foxnews report highlighting my concern on HCQ “study” – https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-stephen-smith-study-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-treatment

“”I’ve no idea why [University of Virginia School of Medicine opthamology professor Dr. Jayakrishna Ambati] delved into this study, which isn’t a study. It’s a sham,” Smith said. “I can’t believe anyone took this seriously. There’s not one dosage listed, cumulative or daily, of hydroxychloriquine or anthromicin. And people call this a study.””

“”Not one person in that paper saw one COVID patient. Only three are MDs [and] all [those] are ophthalmology trained,” Smith said of the research. “It’s a sham. It’s a shame on UVA. I sent an email to the dean of the medical school at UVA. I have not heard back from them. It is an embarrassment that UVA allows this thing to be called a study.””

Another good day relatively speaking – US death change 1378 – no other country close to 1000

NJ sliding downwards now in terms of confirmation.

Death peaks likely for many states – still on the border is MA,MI, IL, WA, CA, AZ,MO

Mexico is ramping up testing and you will likely see large confirmations.

Good news continues for France, UK, Spain, Italy, Germany – all sloping down in daily death.