Happy Mother’s Day!

Lots of news to discuss – where to start….

The more the data comes out the more it shows this problem cannot be tackled on a macro scale. The virus is quite focused but still virulent. I can’t highlight enough the Korean study of the building which by far is the MOST informative and MOST to the point study of what we are dealing with. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1274_article

In fact they should have mapped out the Diamond Princess just like this study to understand where exactly the virus was at – or was it just random. With the Chinese restaurant study and this it shows this is not random.

The more I think of this study the more takeaways I develop.

Lets think of the building being a country. We can lock up the entire building – every floor forced to quarantine. We would have literally locked away 91% of the population that was innocent bystanders and would have not done anything to solve the issue at hand. Finding the right group to quarantine was not hard – the virus was very focused – 97% all on the 11th floor AND not only that 95% of the 97% was on the HALF of the 11th floor.

The mitigation problem was VERY solvable on a local basis. A floor by floor management could have easily isolated and solved the problem. A “federal” solution – ONLY SEEING TOTAL numbers would not have the knowledge or wits to realize the fact the entire building did not need to be closed down. WE HAVE THE TECHNOLOGY – to solve this problem. This is about getting data and organizing it so you can see what is going on. You give someone experienced in managing and building a database and person familiar with analyzing data or even a program to review data – they would have come to the conclusion to closed the 11th floor. Then analyze what makes the 11th floor unique.

We need to focus on the data – not macro level but we need to pinpoint the problem as S. Korea has done. They know this that’s why they are ahead of everyone. My years spent in technology – it so unfortunate the bottleneck is people – change management is key. It is a cliché consulting term but it is so on the point.

Another nuance I want to highlight the above was a discussion on mitigation – not a reduction of death. They are not necessarily connected. Obviously in the extreme they are – no spread – mitigation solved = 0 deaths. However in the non -extreme case – we can have spreading with limited deaths. Lets mitigate but where there are holes in mitigation lets have the second prong strategy of reducing death. “SMART” testing is mitigation strategy. “SMART” quarantining is focused on reducing death statistics.

Lets get more macro – Arizona has a new covid dashboard which is very informative. https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

They are also now tracking their serology tests. They are doing a test blitz and so far the data indicates mitigation to zero is not likely. Large quarantining is not going to be effective – there will be holes and given how virulent in nature the virus is you will get pockets of spreads. We need to find the pockets (not LARGE segments) and isolate them – its like the Whac-A-Mole game – but we have the technology it can be done. The acceptance of the disease spread allows the second phase of the strategy to evolve – “SMART” quarantine.

They have to dig deeper than even county level – its too high of a level but you now know which county needs to focus Maricopa. Note the amount of confirmed cases in the age group 20-44 = 4145 65+=2521

So the 20-44 yr death is 19….19/4145 = 0.5% 65+=16.8%

I know you will see the headlines of kids getting sick and the young and they will stress to you this isn’t an age disease – but it is statistically. 37X more likely to die if you get covid-19 and you are 65+ vs. 20-44. Now I am sure in general 65+ is more likely to die from even a broken leg than 20-44 – but the data suggest IF you want to reduce death FROM covid-19 focus not getting the elderly to get the virus. Spending your time isolating the youth is a poor allocation of time and resource when the key is isolating the elderly – you get 37X bang for your effort.

Tesla is in the headlines – https://www.tesla.com/blog/getting-back-work

So many people want to bash Elon that he is money grabbing. The DATA shows its pinpoint issue – if it shows up in your factory you got to deal with it – IF its not in your factory its going to be okay. HOW do you get it not in your factory and not have it spread – do things about it….WE NEED GUIDELINES to make buildings and workplace environments SAFER – we don’t need massive isolation protocols. They are taking their experiences from Shanghai and applying it – that’s what you should do. NOT ALL PLACES ARE EQUAL! Those places that do things to make their place safer SHOULD BENEFIT. They should be able to retain more talent they should be able to be more productive – they invested in making their place a better place WHY cant they get a return on it. We have data perhaps not SPECIFC to covid-19 – but we do know UV light mitigates viruses and closed recirculated air increase viral load – places installing UVC lighting and fresh air HVAC system SHOULD benefit from their capital investment – WHY are we so fixated to make everyone suffer and not have competition to make better safer places to go and visit? WHY do we not cultivate innovation to make grocery stores and essential places safer places? WE HAVE THE TECHNOLOGY. Yes Covid-19 is a unique virus but it is still a virus. WE know how to destroy viruses in terms of sanitary measures. WE know how to help mitigate spread of viruses. Educate people what would make a very safe environment to go to – then storeowners would make their places better else people will go to other places….allow competition to make us better. Policy to reduce death can coincide with guidelines – we can still focus quarantine on metrics causing death and overwhelming the healthcare system. DATA shows its not 20-44yrs overwhelming the system.

Politics…ugh – but I figure you should know its out there – looks like there COULD be some collusion with WHO and China – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8304471/Chinas-president-Xi-Jinping-personally-requested-delay-COVID-19-pandemic-warning.html

“China’s president Xi Jinping ‘personally asked WHO to hold back information about human-to-human transmission and delayed the global response by four to six WEEKS’ at the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, bombshell report claims”

“Der Spiegel published bombshell claims from its Federal Intelligence Service “

Reiteration on what concerns me in the future as I noted before – the kids of Covid-19 – living a life of early sterility – https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6491/598.full

Also notes the IMPORTANCE and DEMONSTRATES the immunity system is different when young and needs to be fostered.

“Evidence is also mounting that immune system programming that starts in early life may influence the risk of developing conditions such as allergic, autoimmune, reproductive, and neuropsychiatric disorders in later life, further underscoring the translational implications of this kind of research.”

Divorce lawyers are going to be banking another article supporting the trend – https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3083681/covid-19-toll-marriage-divorce-inquiries-rise

Another day under 2K for the US – but it’s the weekend. Brazil still showing strong numbers with an increase of 639

Once again NY is back on top of the additional deaths (369)

Sweden is not looking too good as their deaths and confirmations are increasing relative to the testing. They are the highest now among the European countries. HOWEVER as I noted before they could be playing the long game in mitigating the flu season coming up. Only time will tell on this – but some data indicate they may be right. Riddle me why flu season happens every year? Did you know in the US 50% of the death of flu occur in the 1st quarter –(https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/NCHS-VSRR-Quarterly-provisional-estimates-for-sele/489q-934x)

Rhode Island should have some interesting data they are at 8.3% testing of total population.

Mexico and Brazil continue to rise. AZ is rising to but perhaps more testing results in more confirmation and more allocation to deaths?

There is an indication opening up is leading to some increase in daily deaths….but not back to previous peaks yet.