Covid 5/15/20

Lets start off with some good news…

New antibody test found to be 100% accurate by Roche – https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/new-coronavirus-test-highly-specific-and-100-per-cent-accurate/

“Public Health England (PHE) said that last week the scientific experts at its Porton Down facility had carried out an independent evaluation of a new antibody blood test developed by a Swiss pharmaceutical company.

The examination found that Roche’s serology test was “highly specific” and had an accuracy of 100 per cent.

The findings have been hailed as a “very positive development” in combating the coronavirus outbreak.

The test is designed to help determine if a patient has been exposed to the virus that causes COVID-19 and whether they have developed antibodies against it.

The detection of these antibodies could help to indicate if a person has gained immunity against the virus.”

Note Roche is also active on late stage treatment via http://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/fda_approves_roches_actemra_covid-19_trial_1329887

T cells found in covid-19 patients which indicate long term immunity – https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity?utm_source=newsfromscience%3Dflipboard%3Dflipboard2460878

“Now, two studies reveal that infected people harbor T cells that target the virus—and may help them recover. Both studies also found that some people never infected with SARS-CoV-2 have these cellular defenses, most likely because they were previously infected with other coronaviruses.

“This is encouraging data,” says virologist Angela Rasmussen of Columbia University. Although the studies don’t clarify whether people who clear a SARS-CoV-2 infection can ward off the virus in the future, both identified strong T cell responses to it, which “bodes well for the development of long-term protective immunity,” Rasmussen says. The findings could also help researchers create better vaccines.”

Interesting connection with Vitamin D and obesity – note all the vitamin D articles of the past – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10966885

“Obesity-associated vitamin D insufficiency is likely due to the decreased bioavailability of vitamin D(3) from cutaneous and dietary sources because of its deposition in body fat compartments.”

To the scary news which I am sure will spread – “study shows you can spread coronavirus just by talking” – https://bgr.com/2020/05/14/coronavirus-tips-speaking-can-spread-covid-19-so-wear-a-mask/

Clearly they will lead with that but you got read the rest to get it tempered and also they still have not quantified the level of coronavirus needed to infect you – it is not just 1 particle that will get you sick.

““This study doesn’t directly test whether the virus can be transmitted by talking, but it builds a strong circumstantial case that droplets produced in a normal close conversation would be large enough and frequent enough to create a high risk of spreading SARS-CoV-2 or any other respiratory virus between people who are not wearing face masks.””

The above article along with this article and the current experiences from NY to the Chinese restaurant and S. Korean Building study one can deduce certain activities likely causing spread and as the article notes it’s not likely who you think – https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/14/coronavirus-who-gave-you-covid-19-its-not-who-you-think/

“A study from Shenzhen, China found that 11.2% of household contacts developed COVID-19, compared to 6.6% for all close contacts. Another study from China had similar findings: When checking the contacts of 105 COVID-10-positive individuals, the researchers found 16% of contacts in the same household tested positive for the virus.

An Illinois woman with symptoms spread the virus to her husband. Of the other 347 actively-monitored close contacts that interacted with these two patients, 43 developed symptoms and none tested positive for the coronavirus.

Family gatherings: In Chicago, the coronavirus was most likely spread from one infected person to other people — not from the same household — at a funeral in February and a birthday party three days later. Both events were several hours long and the infected individual, who had symptoms, embraced others and shared food. In total, this single individual caused six confirmed and nine probable COVID-19 cases.

Group gatherings: Public health officials believe that one infected individual spread the virus to choir members in Skagit County, WA. Of the 61 people who were at a 2.5-hour choir practice in early March, there were 32 confirmed and 20 probable COVID-19 cases.

Restaurants: In a restaurant in Guangzhou, China, one infected individual may have spread the coronavirus to customers at two neighboring tables. The tables overlapped for about an hour. The report’s authors think that infectious droplets spread between the tables via airflow from the restaurant’s air conditioning system.

Homeless shelters: In early April, tests in a Boston homeless shelter showed that the virus had infected 147 residents, or 36% of the shelter’s population.”

I agree with the article based on the evidence – the chances of a random person giving you the virus seems much more remote than a month ago. I would even speculate the contact transfer is not that great and its more likely air transfer at certain viral load which matters more. The reason I hypothesized this is the fact none of the waiters in the building got sick in the Chinese study and clearly they are moving dishes in and out. The S. Korean building even though they shared elevators/lobby no major out break beyond 11th floor. In the eleven floor most on one side of the building even though they share restroom and elevator waiting and travel time to floor equivalent. NY lockdown was so long yet confirmation rising so perhaps grocery store visits are long enough – or more likely people are visiting relatives who they believe have also been quarantined only to realize either they were asymptomatic for long periods or that someone in the chain wasn’t quarantine. Staying inside with people you cannot 100% confirm quarantine is not a good recipe as viral load builds and talking and having a long conversation in a non circulated fresh air room will eventually lead to infection. The risk is indoors not outdoors. Blaming random people is not the issue unless you spend a long time with that random person breathing in their exhausted air AND they are infected.

Before the daily update I delved into some key Asian countries including Russia and we observed the following conclusion – zero confirmation goal is likely unobtainable – however mitigation of death – hence healthcare system – is certainly possible – plus we need to investigate more thoroughly the difference in these countries vs. US before just concluding they are masking their numbers.

There are moments of zero cases for Vietnam, Taiwan, China, Japan – but it could be a reporting issues. On a 7 day moving average the only country to go to zero was Vietnam.

Death view is really amazing in context of Europe and the US. Vietnam has a total of 312 confirmed cases – NOT 1 DEATH.

Russia death is growing of recent – but even their fatality rate is low 0.9% – and their death per capita is amazingly low given the amount of testing done 0.0016% – which is the highest among all these countries. If we even double the current value 0.0032% and used this in our herd immunity example we are talking about previously – under 10K death.

US under 2K again. Brazil deaths are relatively high 759

NJ is leading in the death figures not NY at 232. IL is leading in confirmation. This is a state I would probably not recommend opening up without strict measures.

Texas death is rising and has hit a new 7 Day MA peak. However to connect the current death with the recent opening would mean the infection was quite fast. I really think it would be unfair to equate these deaths to opening just yet.

Brazil, Mexico, and Ecuador are going to show some bad number for awhile they are in the ramp stage.

Brazil is the leader in 7 day MA daily death difference if the US is broken out by state.