Covid 5/28/20

Perhaps confirmation bias – but this article sums up the direction all the data is indicating to me – https://www.livemint.com/news/india/covid-may-never-go-away-even-with-a-vaccine-report-11590641440095.html

“There are four endemic coronaviruses that are present, causing the common cold

Experts believe that COVID-19 will become the fifth”

“amid all the uncertainty revolving around the contagion, the persistence of the novel virus is one of the few things we can count on about the future.”

“"This virus is here to stay," Sarah Cobey, an epidemiologist and evolutionary biologist at the University of Chicago was quoted as saying by Post. "The question is, how do we live with it safely?"

“"People keep asking me, ‘What’s the one thing we have to do?’ The one thing we have to do is to understand that there is not one thing. We need a comprehensive battle strategy, meticulously implemented."

“many experts believe this COVID-19 could become relatively benign, causing milder infections as our immune systems develop a memory of responses to the virus. However, that process could take a long time, said Andrew Noymer, a University of California at Irvine epidemiologist.”

“experts believe that people won’t make the shift toward long-range thinking up till the infection spreads more widely and affects someone they know. "It is like people who drive too fast. They come upon the scene of an accident, and for a little while, they drive more carefully, but soon they are back to speeding again," said Michael T. Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.

"Contrast that with people who have lost someone to drunk driving," he said. "It mobilizes them and becomes a cause for them. Osterholm continued saying that everyone is eventually going to know someone who got infected or died from it and "that’s what it may take.””

No different to business strategy and changing technology the key roadblock is the human aspect of it – change management. The LONG RANGE thinking for covid-19 I keep alluding to is our ability to recognize what we feed ourselves each day can and will have a long term impact. We can make better decisions in the near term to our diets which will benefit us for the long run. Unlike all other diseases they take a lot more time to show their impact as a result of our poor diet choices, covid-19 is making it more apparent that one needs to be more cautious on what you feed yourself. The government should step in and regulate our vices of choosing poor food. The data is quite apparent IF you are healthy the odds of fatality shrinks to nearly zero. I would throw another hypothesis – the healthier you are the increase likelihood of being asymptotic/mild symptom. I hope to find the data to prove or disprove this, but IF true who wouldn’t want to be asymptotic to mild symptoms if you caught covid.

Though I do believe the virus is generally spread through the air not contact – it doesn’t mean you should not be worried about surfaces. The ability of the immune system to fight off covid would likely be improved if not fighting off multiple infections.

Brazil set another record – they are now the leader of daily confirmation 20599 – death 1086. US death back up at 1505 – now over 100K deaths in US.

NY once again the leader for the US at 182

County view – we got a flare up in Buena Vista County Iowa red dot in the middle of the map on the confirmation (7 Day MA Confirmation: 430). Looks like a from a pork and turkey plant – https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/local/state-and-regional/buena-vista-county-expecting-jump-in-covid-19-cases/article_1720dd2c-cc40-5d0d-bec0-709b3fe06427.html

“Tyson spokeswoman Liz Croston did not say how many of the 3,100 workers at its Storm Lake pork and turkey plants have previously tested positive for the virus.”

This highlights our food choice also has an impact on others. Driving margins have lead to unhealthy working conditions to many in our food supply chain.

“You have just dined, and however scrupulously the slaughterhouse is concealed in the graceful distance of miles, there is complicity.” Ralph Waldo Emerson

The positive thing many of these food processing facilities the fatality rate has been low (0.4%). https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6918e3.htm

Even though many headlines note states are open – there are still restrictions. This shows the relative OPEN the states are. Ohio more open than TX now.

US tested almost 4.5% of the population. Mexico and Brazil big piece of the daily death pie.

Brazil now the highest 7 day moving average death vs. all the countries and US states in the complete time series. The only good news for Brazil there are signs of some plateau – but this would indicate 2X+ current death level.