Some good reports to read. I will start highlighting the reference text (red) so there is no misunderstanding what I say vs. paper.

This paper notes the spread of Covid-19 for France occurred in Dec 2019 – this causes a lot more questions than answers as many good papers do. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920301643

“Covid-19 was already spreading in France in late December 2019, a month before the official first cases in the country.

Early community spreading changes our knowledge of covid-19 epidemic.”

The one patient found through all the testing of culture was:

“42 years old manborn in Algeria, who lived in France for many years, and worked as a fishmonger. His last trip was in Algeria during August 2019. One of his child presented with ILI prior to the onset of his symptoms. His medical history consisted in asthma, type II diabetes mellitus. He presented to the emergency ward on December 27 2019 with hemoptysis, cough, headache and fever, evolving for 4 days. Initial examination was unremarkable and the performed CT scan revealed bilateral ground glass opacity in inferior lobes (Figure 3). at admission he had a lymphopenia, an elevated C-Reactive Protein and fibrinogen while Pro Calcitonin was in normal range value. No pathogen was identified on sputum sample collected in the emergency ward. The patient was admitted to the ICU with antibiotic therapy, and evolution was favorable until discharge on December 29,2019”

The impact on this is the theory I have been hypothesizing is that the cat is out of the bag and the virus has already spread by the time it finally hits a patient that would warrant an investigation.

“Two recent studies suggested that around 18 to 23% infected with SARS-COV-2 were asymptomatic16 and that around 55% of infected were caused by unidentified infected persons.17 Our results strongly support these two assumptions, suggesting that many asymptomatic patients were not diagnosed during January 2020 and contributed to the spread of this epidemic”

The stat that ALL was asymptomatic is interesting – be interested to get the demographics of all the workers – also note the contagious figure similar to cruise ship 17% – https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/triumph-foods-outbreak-missouri/

“More than 370 workers at a pork plant in Missouri tested positive for coronavirus. All were asymptomatic”

This paper supports the theory that immunity is built once you have the virus. However there sample size is small (14) but they do demonstrate both antigen and Tcell immunity https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1074-7613%2820%2930181-3

“In all 14 patients tested, 13 displayed serum neutralizing activities in a pseudotype entry assay. Notably, there was a strong correlation between neutralization antibody titers and the numbers of virus-specific T cells. Our work provides a basis for further analysis of protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2, and

understanding the pathogenesis of COVID-19, especially in the severe cases. It has also implications in developing an effective vaccine to SARS-CoV-2 infection.”

Positive news on the antibody front – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8285333/Antibody-prevents-COVID-19-virus-infecting-human-cells.html?

“Antibody found to block infection by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in cells

The ’47D11′ antibody targets the ‘spike protein’ of the destructive coronavirus

It could alter the ‘course of infection’ or protect an uninfected person exposed”

Looks like everyone converging on antibody – https://www.malaymail.com/news/world/2020/05/05/israel-isolates-coronavirus-antibody-in-significant-breakthrough-says-minis/1863150

“Israel has isolated a key coronavirus antibody at its main biological research laboratory, the Israeli defence minister said yesterday, calling the step a “significant breakthrough” toward a possible treatment for the Covid-19 pandemic.”

Iceland notes SMART testing – via Test and Trace – https://time.com/5831580/iceland-coronavirus-tests/?

Iceland has done quite well and are ahead in terms of testing per capita – but they are very small relative to even cities in the US. They did not just test symptomatic they took a more statistical approach and moved around to sample the population and found hot spots.

“The company used its facilities to test a cross-section of the population, and identified scores of new cases, including people with mild or no symptoms.”

Last but not least a PSA – https://amp.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/iain-dale/quitting-junk-food-risk-dying-of-coronavirus/?

“A cardiologist has insisted that reducing the amount of junk food you eat will significantly reduce your chance of dying from coronavirus.”

“Dr Malhotra told Iain that people who are obese and are suffering with diseases related to obesity have a "tenfold increase in death" from coronavirus. Because of the health issues associated with obesity, the cardiologist told LBC that obese people have a "significantly higher chance of hospitalisation and death" from the virus.

He noted that "poor diet is the biggest factor of putting stress on our healthcare system" but assured the public that they "can reverse these risk factors very quickly". "30 minutes of exercise is the best thing you can do for you health" and taking action such as this will greatly reduce your risk of succumbing to coronavirus.”

“Dr Malhotra went further to predict a possible change in coronavirus strategy in the coming months if the UK was to adopt a healthier diet, stating that "if our population is healthier we may not need to lockdown next time we have an outbreak."

Good update day – but could be weekend lull – low deaths reported with US still leading at 1240 new deaths – almost 70K total for the US with over 50% in NY,NJ, MA.

NY still lead the way in increased death but now is less than 25% of the total – only 291.

The UK has dropped below 10% of those tested are being confirmed.

Japan is observing a resurgence in the 7 Day MA daily death – still not surpassing the initial peak but getting very close at 21.6 daily deaths. Still in the grand scheme of countries that is extremely low compared to other countries particularly given the density. I would be shocked if this level would overwhelm their health system. The state of Illinois is at 96.6 daily deaths.