Interesting to see CA gov claim that 1st community spread Covid happened in nail salon – https://theweek.com/speedreads/913304/california-governor-says-states-1st-community-spread-covid19-case-happened-nail-salon

At the same time TX Governor releases nail salon owner from jail and today hair salons are opening in TX – https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/07/texas-gov-greg-abbott-jailing-salon-owner-shelley-luther-too-far/3087849001/

I do believe just like not all types of stores are the same – also not all stores within a type of stores are the same. For example lets say a nail salon installed an advance UVC HVAC fresh air system and implemented social distancing with barriers, mask wearing employees and patrons, approved cleaning chemicals sanitize after every patron, and had testing for employees and patrons even if it was only temp reading and only took those who sign off on waiver that did not have health issues such as diabetes and obesity etc…I suspect that store would be way safer and also not cause a significant burden to the healthcare system than any grocery store or home appliance store that is currently allowed to open. Clearly NY data shows its not just these stores that’s causing the issue as they have been close all this time and all we have are “essential” stores in NY operating. The mitigation requires more than a “type” of store is the point – sure it could be worse if those stores open – BUT if mitigation efforts were to be put in place at these types of stores they could potentially not have a material impact.

Perhaps instead of sledgehammer policy of closure – guidelines to the public to watch for stores that have social distancing in place, mask wearing, and advance UVC HVAC system with fresh air system non circulated negative pressure zones – should be visited over those that do not. I think guidelines not edicts should allow consumers to come back and have confidence to visit certain stores that have implemented those guidelines. Many places that have open are still not getting any customers. Fear is still there and without some guidelines and checklist to know what store is safe or even for a store owner to make their store “safer” then the fear will likely continue. Also a reinforcement of quarantine for those that have health issues and particularly those that the covid-19 has shown to hurt the most diabetes, obesity, upper respiratory issues – and free testing for those health issues will help mitigate overwhelming the health system.

We can mitigate with technology and it doesn’t depend on the type of store you have – obviously a more contact store more mitigations would be needed to reduce viral load.

With more data and much more testing and the conclusion that in many places the virus is out and likely no way of putting it away – its now important to figure out what is going on in terms of reducing fatality. The below chart shows countries/states who have tested over 1% of their per capita and have at least 25K confirmed cases. Can we learn from those that have low fatality rates (death/confirmed). Data is so fascinating – I never realized how densely populated Netherland is. Of course population density for a country is not the best metric as perhaps population density for the most populated city in the country e.g. Russia pop density looks extremely low. Is the strain in Russia the Chinese strain thereby limiting deaths or are we going to accuse the country of misreporting the numbers? If it is a real number certainly this needs to be investigated to figure out some lessons learn – likewise with Saudi Arabia – if the two are right then its not the vodka. Saudi Arabia does by its culture ~50% population wear a face mask in public settings. Interesting comparison is TX vs. LA – over 50% better in TX than LA – all metrics similar BMI is higher in LA but both high relatively speaking.

Because of that train of thought lets dive into the county data – in New Orleans they are 3X more likely to take public transport than in Harris County TX . There is a race component 3X African American rate. There is likely more sunshine in Harris County – whether Harris County goes outside relative to Orleans folks that’s not known in this data.

Daily update another US 2k plus day of deaths (2231). Russia confirmed cases rises but their death numbers barely rise (88).

NY still lead the way in the US rise 23% (521) – then the same group of states – all intertwined with NYC. This does support the claim that NYC was ground zero for the spread. Travel from Europe was the culprit not China. China travel infection in Washington but that strain was way “better”.

Open state watch – so far nothing significant to report from the states opening up – but wont really know much for another 2 weeks.

Mexico testing data is flat lining for some reason even though confirmed cases and death rising – https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-total-tests-for-covid-19?year=2020-04-18&country=MEX

Sweden surpassed Spain in Deaths/Confirmed – now at 12.35%

Several US states haven’t turn the corner in terms of daily death changes 7 day MA – AZ,PA,CA,FL,CT. AZ in fact is peaking not flat lining. Mexico,Brazil, India continue to rise.