New study on HCQ – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.19.20136093v1.full.pdf

“We evaluated the effectiveness of (hydroxyl)chloroquine in treating patients with

moderate COVID-19. Our data suggest that chloroquine is likely to be effective in

treating certain types of the disease. At the dosage used, hydroxychloroquine exerted

effects similar to those of chloroquine; however, the magnitude of

hydroxychloroquine’s effects was limited.”

“Forty-eight patients with moderate COVID-19 were randomized to oral treatment

with chloroquine (1000 mg QD on Day 1, then 500 mg QD for 9 days; n=18),

hydroxychloroquine (200 mg BID for 10 days; n=18), or control treatment (n=12)”

The verge of crisis in Houston is the headline – very scary headline for sure – https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/504319-houston-on-verge-of-crisis-amid-surging-covid-19-cases

There are multiple variables to consider from the Memorial holidays, protest, and general opening of the economy. Clearly a SMART opening – strong guidelines and quarantine for individuals in high risk category – would have been advisable. Guidelines for business to install and/or improve air flow would have been advisable. Protest guidelines from wearing mask to STRONG suggestions to not gather back in homes or bars/restaurants to discuss the days events. I think the act of walking outside with a mask not likely will contribute to the issue. But the bond of marching with your fellow man after a quarantine probably lowered the guard and caused a social gathering which would likely not be in a conducive environment. INDOOR talking and socializing with AC running without a fresh air unit is likely the perfect environment to spread coronavirus. Restaurant gathering indoor without modification on HVAC likely circulated coronavirus from an asymptomatic person as they talked and socialized if the person was aligned with HVAC blowing. I would probably hypothesize the blowing of HVAC could cause a spread similar to a sneeze in terms of distance probably not viral load.

In terms of data to understand what is happening the best source still is Texas Medical Center. The most concerning graph likely the below image.

They note 2 dates. You can see phase 1 and phase 2 even weeks after did not do much. Even after Memorial day which this year May25th – 2 to 3 weeks later – no big jump till the very end of 3rd week which is the later end of timeline of symptoms avg ~14days. The protest began beginning of June 1 week later which would coincide on the spread growth timeline. Once again I believe its not the protest itself it is the human aspect of finally being out with your fellow person and deciding to get together afterwards that likely resulted in spreading AND perhaps having restaurants. Also I would hope high risk category individuals would have not protested – high risk are multiple comorbidities – diabetes, heart issue, immune deficiency, obese,….. IF that was considered than we will likely have increased confirmations BUT it should not strain the medical system.

Here is the ICU capacity chart – note date 6/23 – AT slight below NORMAL capacity…..27% ICU bed for Covid-19….so not sure about the VERGE of CRISIS…certainly alarming increases

This is probably the most alarming chart offered which included some extrapolations including a significant growth of noncovid ICU. Probably need to look back in history and see IF July actually increased over June. How many are elected procedures? Now that the governor has banned elected procedures this chart should be revised.

Here we are in the no concern to moderate concern….once again Verge of crisis?….maybe it’s the only way to get clicked on now….

Our data source continues to not show “alarming” stats yet…In fact the fatality rates are the envy of the nation.

Trying to understand the breakout of Harris county confirmation the only source – https://harriscounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/9280d2e195b440d5ac29dfc819048550

Interesting to see the majority Race/Ethnicity unknown.

Interesting distribution of age group impact – hopefully the elderly are doing much better job quarantining here.

If we look at Harris county population distribution it does show kids are not getting it OR get to a point to go get a test.

Brazil leading the death leaderboard followed closely by Mexico.

California leads the US in deaths 99. Florida and TX confirmation rising dramatically.

Miami Dade is similar to Harris County in terms of confirmation and deaths leading the state.

Just like Harris County the increases do come with a silver lining – fatality rates are dropping – no alarming rise. Hopefully this means we are treating it better and those vulnerable are staying quarantined and not getting it.

Brazil and Mexico still on top and not showing a decline yet.