Just the numbers today.

Below are all the counties in the US with 500+ confirmed covid cases. So basically these counties have covid. What I don’t have is how much of the population is tested in these counties without going to each county unique website. I suspect by deduction the lower end are likely less tested vs. the higher end. The highest confirmation per capita is in Trousdale County TN – largely because a huge prison – https://www.wkrn.com/community/health/coronavirus/trousdale-county-leads-us-in-virus-cases-per-capita-due-to-prison/

Assuming ones county doesn’t make up like a prison not likely to spread as rapidly – which coincidently is similar the Princess Diamond Cruise ship ~18% of the population. On the far end of the spectrum we have Clark Washington US at 0.15% confirmed per capita. They have only tested 2.7% of the population – https://www.clark.wa.gov/public-health/novel-coronavirus

They are also fortunate enough to have a lesser population density than many major cities with only 3256 people per sq mile as compared to Harris County TX at 5319 and NYC at 28K.

The median distribution for these 540 counties is 0.75% – which is close to state of Alaska totals I discussed yesterday.

Unless your county is uniquely clean or socially different than the rest of the US likely if you have not tested beyond 20% of your population – the county will likely gravitate to at least the median number if the county already has covid in the general population. Obviously IF you have covid than the odds of covid deaths is greater and hence there is trend to show more covid cases more covid deaths. Discovering deaths having covid can come in after the deaths have occurred as noted by multiple death revisions by states. However having high confirmation does not directly equal high mortality as Trousdale county is sitting at 0.06% death per capita as compared to NY with a 2.5% confirmed per capita and a death per capita rate of 0.27%. (highest in the country).

Harris county TX has only tested 6% of the population as of Jun 25th – https://www.dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/

As Harris County TX test there is no doubt confirmations will rise as the current confirmed per capita is low relative (0.65%) to expectations for a city this size and a decent non-mask wearing society.

New York City and associated counties have tested nearly 18% of the population and sit at 2.5% confirmed per capita. Testing total for city: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

So far hypothesis of testing and amount confirmed seems reasonable.

The key is whether this overburdens our hospitals. Unfortunately I don’t have TX hospital data source – but we do have FL and AZ. We can see even though the confirmations are rising less of those are being hospitalized – which is a very good thing (last chart below). In terms of testing and positive outcomes we see for AZ, FL, and TX that stat is growing (third chart below). There are many factors that can lead to that percentage growth from better testing sites to more community awareness to the simple fact the disease is spreading much more rapidly to the general public. CA is interesting to see that they are maintaining their positive to test percentage at around 6%.

Harris county view shows deaths are still in check in terms of the confirmed even on a 2-4 week lag basis.

No doubt the opening of the states could have been structured much better. The mask requirement could have been started at the beginning with simple explanations why mask are necessary.

We certainly should have persuaded the general public that adoption of a healthy lifestyle will significantly reduce your risk. During quarantine this would have been a perfect time to transition to whole foods and daily workouts.

Guidelines/recommendations to create a safer environment from fresh air HVAC units to UV filtrations should have been announced and promoted. Closing all business type regardless of investment and strategy to reduce spread seems unfair. Guidelines and recommendations gives business owners a chance to at least compete.

In the rest of the world – Brazil continues its top death country at 990 – Mexico 2nd 719

CA leads the US in deaths yesterday at only 62. Optimistically we know how to treat the disease much better than the beginning.

India has sustained its dip down in death for the 7 day moving average