Topic of the day school re-opening….We should not think of this as we are isolated and have no data to know what to do. We should also be cognizant of what peoples reaction would be IF school closures happen and to really understand IF their actions would result in a worse situation.

First lets understand worldwide what is happening – many parts of the world doesn’t have summer break like we do – https://globalhealth.washington.edu/sites/default/files/COVID-19%20Schools%20Summary%20%282%29.pdf?

Denmark, Germany, and Norway ALL did things to produce the below results.

“school re-opening in Denmark has not resulted in a significant increase in the growth rate of COVID-19 cases”

“school re-opening in Germany has been accompanied by increased transmission among students, but not school staff”

“school re-opening in Norway has not resulted in a significant increase in the growth rate of COVID-19 cases. 1”

Isreal:“Teachers and students older than 7 years are required to wear masks. As of June 24, 2020, isolation and quarantine has affected approximately 1% of

Israeli students”

Japan: “The Ministry of Health issued guidelines for school reopening that includes measures

such as opening windows to ventilate classrooms, maintaining physical distance, checking temperatures

daily, and wearing face masks”

We SHOULD Cherry pick solutions and come up with a way to produce an environment for learning. We should also think outside the box and implement mechanical solutions. We are the wealthiest nation we should be able to produce a safe learning environment.

I am pro-online learning and self teaching – if your kid cannot learn from online e.g. youtube they are missing a very key component to the future. However I understand the physical aspect of socialization skills and also the fact parents have designed their life around a place that takes care of their children while they work.

In the social media many parents are coming up with solutions for group learning in peoples homes – or ex-teachers are offering services at their locations – this will defeat the whole purpose of not opening up schools and could make the situation worse. Then of course kids particularly teenagers will likely do things while their parents are at work that could be not very safe beyond covid.

IF an infected symptomatic person on an 13 hour flight not infect anyone – there is a mechanical solution to the problem. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30314-5/fulltext

“Patient 0, who was an employee of the Chinese branch of a German company based in greater Munich, travelled from Shanghai to Munich by aeroplane on Jan 19, 2020, to facilitate workshops and attend meetings in the company building. The day after arrival (Jan 20, 2020), patient 0 felt chest and back aches—which she reported to be unusual—and took a single dose of medicine containing paracetamol. The patient reported fatigue during her whole stay in Germany and attributed the symptom to jetlag. After an overnight flight back to Shanghai on Jan 22, the patient felt feverish. With a self-measured temperature of 38·6°C and cough on Jan 24, the patient visited a physician’s office on Jan 25. The patient tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on Jan 26 and was hospitalised the next day. The clinical situation in both parents also deteriorated during the primary case’s stay in Germany and both were laboratory-confirmed with COVID-19 later.7 The German company was informed of the primary case’s infection in the morning of Jan 27, 2020, and immediately informed its employees as well as the local health authority.”

“A Chinese colleague (patient 13) of patient 0 accompanied them in multiple activities while in Germany. Patient 13 travelled back to China with patient 0, developed symptoms on Jan 27, and tested SARS-CoV-2 positive a few days later.”

“Patient 12 departed for vacation to Spain 3 days later (Jan 28). After Spanish authorities were informed, patient 12 was isolated in hospital on Jan 30 and diagnosed with COVID-19.”

“Extensive contact tracing involved the international flights from Munich to Shanghai (patient 0 on Jan 22, 2020) and from Munich to Tenerife (patient 12 on Jan 28, 2020). As of May 2, no further cases have been identified among flight passengers or other (personal) contacts.”

The cost to ventilate classrooms/offices/public spaces and redesign HVAC systems to pull more fresh air and to install UV filtration is nothing compared to the economic cost of shutting down and working on vaccines that may or may not work. This along with mask wearing should be sufficient to keep the viral load in check to not cause significant spread.

The sentiment expressed in this article is on track with my sentiment – https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-schools-can-reopen-safely-recommendations-from-health-experts-11594652649?mod=e2tw

The politics of this is AWFUL much like HCQ – just because some guy that you don’t like says something – you want to do the opposite – do you see how much power you have given the guy? Smartly open the schools by implementing mechanical solutions combined with safety protocols.

Sacrifices need to be made but as long as they are reasonable and not overburdensome lets do it so we can move on. Wear the mask, ventilate, spend more on electricity, be more healthy, be safe and move on….

Brazil on top of death no surprise there – but second place with 1057 deaths is Chile! US Confirmation continues to top at 71.5K

Texas tops both death and confirmation 163 and 11914 respectively.

Same counties lead the pack other than Dallas is now the leader in Texas in confirmations.

This could be just a reporting delay to cause Dallas to have topped Harris county the 7 day MA still below Harris.

It does look like Houston is being very prudent with who goes to ICU. If it is too prudent we should see a corresponding increase in fatality rate.

ICU growth has remarkably flattened out in the fact of increasing confirmations. Less than 0.1% of those confirmed on 7 day MA are going to the ICU.

South America is now representing much of the top death countries. Confirmation in Chile is highest on the list at over 1.5% per capita

What makes it likely much worse for Chile – is that they haven’t really even tested that much still under 7% tested per capita.