This just might flip the whole covid thoughts upside down – https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/9/20-1798_article?deliveryName=USCDC_333-DM32083

They show potentially how a single asymptomatic carrier spread covid throughout the community impacting 71 positive cases while still being asymptomatic 1+ month later!

The figure is very interesting and certainly a lot of work would have to be done in order to fill the figure out. There are some big questions left answered from the 2 negative test of patient A0 on March 31 and April 3 – only later on April 11th tested positive. Also to note the Chinese investigators conclude A0 as source and so happened to have traveled to US and arrived March 19 – where in the US?

They have come to conclusion it is by touch – but that is not necessarily clear.

“Patient B1.1 was the downstairs neighbor of case-patient A0. They used the same elevator in the building but not at the same time and did not have close contact otherwise.”

“we believe A0 was an asymptomatic carrier (7,8) and that B1.1 was infected by contact with surfaces in the elevator in the building where they both lived (9).”

IF it was from touch then why not more – could it be A0 was singing or sneezing or coughing and then B1.1 went in. IF from touch could it be that the virus has mutated to be different than the Restaurant, Gym, and Office building studies where no/minimal ancillary person to the events got sick.

The proof or substance that this had to be A0 who came from the US/abroad is the genome –

“The viral genome sequences from the cluster were distinct from the viral genomes previously circulating in China, indicating the virus originated abroad (10) and suggesting case A0 was the origin of infection for this cluster.”

What are at least the facts – Covid can spread and spread efficiently. Perhaps from surfaces perhaps from respiratory (I am still leaning towards that but a mutation certainly is possible). Covid can kill you as a result of your body response to covid. IF you are healthy you can beat covid – healthy is a person who has one or less comorbidity (heart issue, obesity, immune deficient, diabetes). You can get sick even if healthy but it wont likely kill you. SOME do experience longterm issues. Use your quarantine time to get healthy.

Viral load is the key. You will come across covid there is no doubt. It is about keeping the covid levels low so you don’t get infected. Your body can fight off covid at certain levels. Mask even not perfect will reduce viral load for both parties at least in terms of circulation in the air. Not being around people reduces viral load. Being outdoors with breeze reduces viral load. Indoors/car with air just being recirculated with an infected individual will increase viral load – the longer the time the increase viral load.

Study to support opening up of gyms – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.24.20138768v2.full.pdf

“Conclusions: Provided good hygiene and social distancing measures, there was no increased

COVID-19 spread at training facilities.”

Perhaps people who exercise do a better job of fighting of infection? And/or they did self-select so no one who had comorbidities were allowed to be a part of the study. So only healthy people can go to the gym?

The unintended consequences of quarantine – https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-drug-overdose/#click=https://t.co/OghOpWfme9

“Suspected overdoses nationally — not all of them fatal — jumped 18 percent in March compared with last year, 29 percent in April and 42 percent in May, according to the Overdose Detection Mapping Application Program, a federal initiative that collects data from ambulance teams, hospitals and police. In some jurisdictions, such as Milwaukee County, dispatch calls for overdoses have increased more than 50 percent.”

“As the pandemic has pushed massive doses of fear, uncertainty, anxiety and depression into people’s lives, it has cut off the human connections that help ease those burdens.”

“Research has established strong links between stagnating economies and increases in suicides, drug use and overdoses. In recent years, economists Anne Case and Nobel Prize-winner Angus Deaton have dubbed such increasing fatalities in declining blue-collar communities “deaths of despair.”

“Many factors — not just job loss — trigger opioid use, said Alex Hollingsworth, a health economist at Indiana University. “Don’t use opioid deaths as a reason to reopen.””

Even though Brazil death continues to climb their fatality rate is much better than Mexico. Noted before Brazil went with HCQ treatment vs. Mexico following advice of WHO.

Texas shoots up in confirmation by over 9.3K. Metric to watch the next weeks are death and fatality rates for TX

Big jump in TX came in Bexar County – San Antonio region – https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Bexar-County-reports-1-268-new-coronavirus-cases-15378030.php

“Statistics provided by the Metropolitan Health District painted a dire picture of the virus’ spread across San Antonio. On Tuesday, the number of COVID-19 patients in area hospitals rose to 966. That’s almost five times as many as two weeks ago and more than 10 times the number reported June 1.

The number of patients needing intensive care and ventilators soared again Tuesday, reaching 288 and 158, respectively. On June 1, just 39 patients were in intensive care and only 20 were on ventilators.”

“Nirenberg and Wolff tightened their emergency orders regarding masks. Those orders already mandate that businesses require employees and customers to wear face coverings in situations where maintaining a 6-foot distance from others is difficult.

Under changes announced Tuesday, businesses also must require employees and customers to answer questions about COVID-19 symptoms before entering. Businesses with “indoor facilities” — a category that includes gyms, restaurants, shops, supermarkets and many other establishments — also must check people’s temperatures.”

“One in every four admissions to San Antonio-area hospitals now stems from the novel coronavirus.”

Below is Harris and Bexar view we don’t necessarily have a forward view metric. We can see death relative to 2-4 weeks back seemed to be under check so far. Whether this latest blitz of confirmations lead to abnormal percentage of death cannot be ferreted out with data at hand. There are several people noting they need to get tested to come back to work and so this will drive more testing.

Where we do have hospital data we are not seeing a big increase in those confirmed going to the hospital which bodes well for recovery vs. death.

7 day Moving Average daily deaths is creeping back up for the US