Somber reporting day ….
Two experts agree this is here to stay now and even with vaccine …..
““Even with a vaccine, there is no going back to normal anytime soon,” said Thomas Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, speaking at a CNBC Workforce Executive Council virtual event to human resources executives on July 23 about a safe return to the workplace. “Prepare for at least eight to 12 months of this situation,” said Frieden, who now runs the Resolve to Save Lives disease prevention organization.”
“Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy at the University of Minnesota, said it is estimated that 7% to 9% of the total U.S. population has been infected with coronavirus, and that means the worst is yet to come. He said the best understanding in the medical field is that transmission will not slow down until 50% to 70% of the population is infected.
“The pain, suffering, death and economic pain we’ve had to date — that’s 7% to 9% of the U.S. population. We’ve got a long way to go,” Osterholm said.”
““We will be dealing with this forever,” Osterholm said.
“Covid is here to stay,” added Frieden.”
““We have great vaccines and still 100,000 deaths a year from measles,” Frieden said, speaking about Africa. “In the U.S. we still have hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations from flu each year with vaccines, and it looks more likely than not that this virus keeps circulating even with a vaccine.”
““Face-cloth covers are not surgical or N95, but wear ‘em, wear ’em,” Osterholm said, even though he added, “We don’t know how well they work.”
The virus expert said distance is the most important protective measure, especially in indoor-air environments, and everything else, including masks, needs to be layered on after that.
Osterholm chided current CDC director Robert Redfield for recently claiming that all we need is masks to drive Covid-19 into the ground in six weeks.
“I thought it was irresponsible,” Osterholm said of Redfield’s claim.”
“There has been a lot of discussion about the need for updated HVAC systems to provide ventilation never considered necessary before Covid-19, but the former CDC director said becoming infected by touching a doorknob or elevator in a building is more probable than contracting the virus due to an AC system, which was the case with SARS. “One thing we need to do is know there is no one thing we need to do,” Frieden said. “If anyone tells you they know this virus, don’t trust them,” he added.”
“Osterholm said anyone who does not know a person who has become infected or died from coronavirus should heed his personal warning about indoor air and large gatherings”
““There is no 100% safe other than everyone staying at home, which is too difficult,” Frieden said. “We will be living in a 24/7 Covid world eventually,” he said
The point of the HVAC discussion I will disagree with the “expert” IF this was the case there would have been multiple floors impacted in the S. Korean building structure. He then says there is no one thing – that’s right – just a bunch of low hanging fruits to reduce the probability to a manageable level…HVAC, Mask, distancing, washing hands, open windows, healthy diet, exercise….all reduce probability to a manageable level. Staying INDOORS by YOURSELF and not going anywhere is the only way to 100% proof – but it would seem with families and friends the BY YOURSELF is not feasible. We need to start with what we can now – there are multiple benefits with redoing the HVAC – fresh air reduces odor – reduces other contaminants beyond covid.
CDC studies show symptoms persist for 35% covid patients weeks later – https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm?s_cid=mm6930e1_w
“ Ninety-five (35%) reported that they had not returned to their usual state of health at the time of interview. The proportion who had not returned to their usual state of health differed across age groups: 26% of interviewees aged 18–34 years, 32% aged 35–49 years, and 47% aged ≥50 years reported not having returned to their usual state of health (p = 0.010) within 14–21 days after receiving a positive test result.”
Good news is you can reduce your odds by 2X in terms of longterm impact by getting healthy (physically and mentally)
“Obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg per m2) (aOR 2.31; 95% CI = 1.21–4.42) and reporting a psychiatric condition§ (aOR 2.32; 95% CI = 1.17–4.58) also were associated with more than twofold odds of not returning to the patient’s usual health after adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity.”
US leads in death at 1244 – Brazil and Mexico next
TX leads in death at 200
What is happening in TX is not very apparent if you look at state level data. The county level shows a much different story. Below are bar chart of each county with % of Total Death of State (Blue), % of Total Population of State (Orange), and Fatality rate (death/confirmation – Red). Just the top 10 counties represent ~55% of total deaths and population in TX. We noticed that Harris county has more population per state capita but much less death per state capita. Hidalgo and Cameron county are the opposite – so this indicates the high level state data is not corresponding to reality. The issue of death numbers coming from the state of Texas is not directly a function of covid -but other factors in play and by a significant amount. The fatality rate in Cameron County is 3X to Harris. Top end state data is essentially useless in interpreting what is happening – good for warning signs but not much after that. Each county has their own issues and challenges – and some are a lot worse than others.
Statistically speaking the mortality rate (death/total county population) in TX is quite a range from essentially 0% to 0.13% – the areas of death are not in the areas observing the topline confirmations that are being noted. In Harris county you need to know 6666+ people in Harris county before you would statistically know of someone that has died from Covid compared to Cameron at 1515.
County daily change show the same counties causing most of the increases
Confirmations in Harris County are falling now. Still no major crisis noted from the data – as death rates are still within range and ICU beds for covid are still trending down….
China is creeping up in deaths and confirmation….indicating its just not going away….
