Sooner or later this was going to come out – https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/pandemic-appears-have-spared-africa-so-far-scientists-are-struggling-explain-why

“Although Africa reported its millionth official COVID-19 case last week, it seems to have weathered the pandemic relatively well so far, with fewer than one confirmed case for every thousand people and just 23,000 deaths so far. Yet several antibody surveys suggest far more Africans have been infected with the coronavirus—a discrepancy that is puzzling scientists around the continent. “We do not have an answer,” says immunologist Sophie Uyoga at the Kenya Medical Research Institute–Wellcome Trust Research Programme.

After testing more than 3000 blood donors, Uyoga and colleagues estimated in a preprint last month that one in 20 Kenyans aged 15 to 64—or 1.6 million people—has antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, an indication of past infection. That would put Kenya on a par with Spain in mid-May when that country was descending from its coronavirus peak and had 27,000 official COVID-19 deaths. Kenya’s official toll stood at 100 when the study ended. And Kenya’s hospitals are not reporting huge numbers of people with COVID-19 symptoms.”

“So what explains the huge gap between antibody data on the one hand and the official case and death counts on the other? Part of the reason may be that Africa misses many more cases than other parts of the world because it has far less testing capacity. Kenya tests about one in every 10,000 inhabitants daily for active SARS-CoV-2 infections, one-tenth of the rate in Spain or Canada. Nigeria, the continent’s most populous nation, tests one out of every 50,000 people per day. Even many people who die from COVID-19 may not get a proper diagnosis.”

“Jambo is exploring the hypothesis that Africans have had more exposure to other coronaviruses that cause little more than colds in humans, which may provide some defense against COVID-19. Another possibility is that regular exposure to malaria or other infectious diseases could prime the immune system to fight new pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, Boum adds. Barasa, on the other hand, suspects genetic factors protect the Kenyan population from severe disease”

“If tens of millions of Africans have already been infected, that raises the question of whether the continent should try for “herd immunity” without a vaccine, Boum says—the controversial idea of letting the virus run its course to allow the population to become immune, perhaps while shielding the most vulnerable. That might be preferable over control measures that cripple economies and could harm public health more in the long run. “Maybe Africa can afford it,” given its apparent low death to infection ratio, Boum says. ”We need to dig into that.””

All the above they didn’t want to go over the most obvious in my mind – which is viral load – what causes high viral load but non recirculated air. In order to have AC/Heated homes one typically needs electricity –

Even S. Africa has lower access to electricity than Brazil. When you have limited viral load your body can gradually build a defense to the virus.

Not only is the viral load not building so high in their homes because of a lack of HVAC, the likely have strong immune system as they obtain BCG vaccine when young and exposed to much more than 1st world countries. A strong immune system is obviously a key thing to have as the stronger immune system tied to health will allow the viral load level for infection to be higher. The more exposure to germs when young likely builds that system. Those in 1st world clean their homes with so much disinfectants and the 3 second rule is no longer acceptable – youth will not have strong immunity when they get older which I showed before to be a very key time period to build your immunity for your life in a previous report (https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/05/covid-5-10-20/)

“Reiteration on what concerns me in the future as I noted before – the kids of Covid-19 – living a life of early sterility – https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6491/598.full

Also notes the IMPORTANCE and DEMONSTRATES the immunity system is different when young and needs to be fostered.

“Evidence is also mounting that immune system programming that starts in early life may influence the risk of developing conditions such as allergic, autoimmune, reproductive, and neuropsychiatric disorders in later life, further underscoring the translational implications of this kind of research.””

S. Africa, Kenya, Ghana, Ethiopia, and Nigeria added to the country comparison below. Note the wealthier the country the more test….but at some point more test wont tell you anything more than what you can mathematically understand – similar to polling/sampling methods. As an individual – testing is certainly important but as country/state analysis testing cost money and time and will likely not get you anymore information than sampling.

US on top of death chart 1499 – Brazil back on the list at 1175

TX back on top of death at 305

Even though TX largest county was Harris at 63 – but LA CA county 113 and Maricopa AZ at 111 – so lots more dispersion in TX – with border counties in TX still high relative confirmations and population.

Harris county 7Day Moving Avg death highest level now 39….Interesting ICU beds are still available but deaths are climbing very rapidly. There must be another constraint or the new data for death is not correct. Fatality rate also highest it has been now 3.6% for 7 day moving average view. This all comes after the new data reporting mechanism.