Covid 8/26/20

Wow the Japanese have been busy – deploy the fastest supercomputer to end the mask debate? – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/26/non-woven-masks-better-to-stop-covid-19-says-japanese-supercomputer

“Face masks made from non-woven fabric are more effective at blocking the spread of Covid-19 via airborne respiratory droplets than other types that are commonly available, according to modelling in Japan by the world’s fastest supercomputer. Fugaku, which can perform more than 415 quadrillion computations a second, conducted simulations involving three types of mask, and found that non-woven masks were better than those made of cotton and polyester at blocking spray emitted when the wearer coughs, the Nikkei Asian Review said.

Non-woven masks refer to the disposable medical masks that are commonly worn in Japan during the flu season, and now during the coronavirus pandemic.

They are made from polypropylene, and are relatively cheap to make in large numbers. Woven masks, including those used in the Fugaku simulation, are typically made from fabrics such as cotton, and appeared in some countries after non-woven versions were temporarily in short supply.

They can be reused and generally offer more breathability but, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), should be washed in soap or detergent and water of at least 60C at least once a day.

The non-woven variety blocked nearly all droplets emitted in a cough, according to experts at Riken, a government-backed research institute in the western city of Kobe.

Cotton and polyester masks were slightly less effective, but were still able to block at least 80% of droplets.

Non-woven “surgical” masks were slightly less effective at blocking smaller droplets measuring 20 micrometres or less, with more than 10% escaping through gaps between the edge of the mask and the face, according to the computer model.

One micrometre is one millionth of a metre.

Polyester and cotton masks allowed up to 40% of the smaller droplets to escape.

“What is most dangerous is not wearing a mask,” Tsubokura said, according to the Nikkei. “It’s important to wear a mask, even a less effective cloth one.”

Fugaku, which was named the world’s fastest supercomputer last month, has also run simulations on how respiratory droplets spread in partitioned office spaces and on packed trains when the carriage windows are open.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ozone-idUSKBN25M0SO

I noted this back in April 17th that I use an ozone generator to disinfect and deodorize. Once again I do feel this is quite obvious and not worthy of so much research as O3 is not stable and oxidation is inevitable – any organic cell in vicinity will likely get oxidized. You do need to take precautions using it- it can also cause materials to breakdown early.

“Scientists at Fujita Health University told a news conference they had proven that ozone gas in concentrations of 0.05 to 0.1 parts per million (ppm), levels considered harmless to humans, could kill the virus.

The experiment used an ozone generator in a sealed chamber with a sample of coronavirus. The potency of the virus declined by more than 90% when subjected to low level ozone for 10 hours.”

“A recent study at the Georgia Institute of Technology showed that ozone may be effective in disinfecting gowns, goggles and other medical protective equipment.

Fujita Medical University Hospital, in Aichi prefecture central Japan, has installed ozone generators to reduce infection in waiting areas and patient rooms.”

The quest for age breakout of deaths by covid lead us to the CDC statistics. https://healthdata.gov/dataset/conditions-contributing-deaths-involving-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-age-group-and

Filtered out for Coronavirus Disease 2019 total US death 153K….ok not as high as JH which is more 175K – perhaps just timing….

So now on a state level we can see your chances of dying from covid on a per capita basis. I had to graph it on a log scale just so you can see the low end range. For perspective your chances of dying in a car crash is around 1 in 106 or roughly 1%. Under the age of 84 the odds of you catching (obviously you need to get it to die from it) and then dying of covid is currently less than 1%. This chart also highlights the awful policy NY did in the beginning with the 2.87% rate in the 84+ category more than 2X than any other state below. If you are 45-54 you odds of dying is equivalent to dying is equivalent to dying from choking on food or bicycle accident. Granted this is today stat so lets say the number rises 4X from current level then the risk is equivalent to somewhere being a pedestrian and/or riding on a motorcycle. Lifetime odds of death – https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/

US death back over 1K

TX back in the lead

Harris county lead TX at 42. Top county in the country LA CA at 47.

Harris county data reporting is very sporadic. The 7 Day MA smooths it out and shows deaths are down over 10 deaths from peak.

Harris county never saw ICU beds hit the dire predictions.

No major trend changes in global counts.