As noted before – but reconfirmed by this paper – the common cold could be a key in our immune body defense given they are also corona viruses – https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/04/science.abd3871

“Surprisingly, antigen-specific T cell studies performed with five different cohorts reported that 20-50% of people who had not been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 had significant T cell reactivity directed against peptides corresponding to SARS-CoV-2 sequences (3–7). The studies were from geographically diverse cohorts (USA, Netherlands, Germany, Singapore, and UK), and the general pattern observed was that the T cell reactivity found in unexposed individuals was predominantly mediated by CD4+ T cells. It was speculated that this phenomenon might be due to preexisting memory responses against human “common cold” coronaviruses (HCoVs), such as HCoV-OC43, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-NL63, or HCoV-229E. These HCoVs share partial sequence homology with SARS-CoV-2, are widely circulating in the general population, and are typically responsible for mild respiratory symptoms (14–16). However, the hypothesis of crossreactive immunity between SARS-CoV-2 and common cold HCoVs still awaits experimental trials. This potential preexisting cross-reactive T cell immunity to SARS-CoV-2 has broad implications, as it could explain aspects of differential COVID-19 clinical outcomes, influence epidemiological models of herd immunity (17, 18), or affect the performance of COVID-19 candidate vaccines.”

You don’t want to be in a bubble and never get sick unless you plan to forever to stay in your bubble. If this is true it can explain why some people have no impact from covid and the key might be just the common cold.

Where are all these test that are supposed to know results in less than a day – here is another one – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-06/how-a-dna-test-machine-mutated-to-find-covid-in-90-minutes

“the Nudgebox, delivers a result in 90 minutes on the spot — no need to ship samples to a lab — based on either a nose swab or some saliva. It can also identify the flu and another common lung ailment known as respiratory syncytial virus.”

I have read multiple Sweden analysis and each report I think they have some bias immediately by the authors. As I have been saying one cant look at country data and really understand much – so I did the work and broke down the countries to the lowest denominator I can find. The biggest grouping here is probably England,UK Hubei China, and Maharashtra India.

The results below are as of yesterday. The other major theme I have discussed is that confirmations and deaths likely need to be discussed separately before reconnecting them. A no quarantine policy IN THEORY should have higher confirmations. Deaths are a function of HOW the confirmations are distributed AND the local healthcare process and capabilities. How an open policy reduces the spread vs quarantining everyone is through society awareness, investments, and education program to reduce viral load (social distance, wear mask, improve ventilation (windows, filters, etc..)). It would seem much like most path of education you need some hard learning. Stockholm, Sweden of late is running very low confirmations. Nonetheless 5 more areas have a lot more confirmations per capita and 4 of those implemented quarantines (LA, NY, Maricopa, Miami-Dade).

The death part of the equation has a lot to do with who got sick and healthcare capabilities and treatment plan. The who got sick can probably controlled with “smart” quarantining not general population quarantining. Sweden did have issues with nursing homes and there are lawsuits in place now. On death per capita the only region worse than Sweden is NYC – they also had nursing home issues.

Putting the two stat together we get the fatality rate – IF you get confirmed with covid what are your chances of dying. Lombardia, Italy takes the prize at 17.4% and England is second place at 15.8%. Looking at overall country stat UK would have been the highest but the reality the virus is somewhat focused and not that dispersed so it wouldnt cover vast counties and states. In context the counties observing 15% of US confirmation are under 2.5% fatality rate with Harris county taking the prize of 1% – best in the world! A stat the Houston health facilities should be proud of.

If we just look at July – we can see Sweden fatality rate took a dramatic drop to only 2.7% vs. overall of 10.1% – as compared to NY dropped to 4.4% vs. 10.4% overall. Interestingly Hubei China is at zero for the entire month of July.

The best policy – as of now based on the above data – is a smart quarantine approach – quarantining the elderly and those who would considered high risk. And then massive education of ways to reduce viral load and help in investments to reduce viral load. Quarantine policy gave many families false hope and created viral load breeding grounds plus created a govt. conspiracy fuel – vs. education and trust environment. I think naturally families who felt at risk would have quarantined (limit social interaction). Education/awareness would induce people to wear mask and social distance (doing the low hanging fruit actions so they can continue with their lives). The mix message for mask due to saving it for the front line is akin to solving not the problem but a side effect. Investments/rebates/standards for better HVAC for public spaces would have given business owners a leg up to invest so society could continue the best it could.

Big number death day US 1449 Brazil 1437

Texas leads death at 435

Once again a good deal of the death in unassigned counties (58) – Highest county Hidalgo (87) on border. Webb (65) on border….IF people just looked at TX stat one might think Houston and Dallas is a death pool. Houston 16 Dallas 4

Confirmations trending down for the big 4 other than Harris