The CDC revisions of death classifications DO NOT mean covid impact was minimized. Each of those deaths still was confirmed for covid just reclassifying direct death results. As noted yesterday deaths are above average. Covid confirmation in patients exist and the more than 1 comorbidity increases your chances of death was always known. The ONLY argument that minimizes the reclassification of deaths from CDC is that those people were going to die anyway and covid just accelerated it. Quite a morbid argument – but IF true then one should see at some point the deaths below the average line – this is yet to be seen.

Cant trust the latest data points as it seems to be revised upwards every update so it must be a partial data. The point is deaths are above average more so in NY (scale different for each state) – so far not showing a trend below normal perhaps later on – and this would prove the point most were going to die anyway – but how much faster did covid cause this to occur time will tell when that line is below the average of the past years.

As noted before to – age plays a very important part in deaths from covid.

Also in a separate database they also show breakout from deaths with confirmed patient and they are only attributing a quarter of deaths directly to covid.

Covid is not trivial but also not catastrophic and perhaps not worth shutting down the economy given the collateral damage. At the beginning we did not know this – but we do now. Stay healthy and the odds will be in your favor! Stay in places where the viral load is managed.

Collateral damage – https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-01/male-suicide-rate-highest-in-twenty-years-new-data-shows

“The rate of male suicide in England and Wales last year reached its highest level for two decades, according to new figures.”

“Men aged 45 to 49 had the highest age-specific suicide rate at 25.5 deaths per 100,000.”

“NS warned that the suicide rate among women aged 10 to 24-year-old had also increased "significantly" since 2012 to its highest level, with 3.1 deaths per 100,000 females in that age group”

In essence the data indicates a sacrifice is being made from the younger generation for quarantine/lifestyle change to save the older generation with additional collateral damage for younger as suicide rates among older are much lower.

On a more cheery note vaccine development is going quite well – https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/health/novavax-vaccine-safe/index.html

“Early stage clinical trial results show the Covid-19 vaccine candidate made by Novavax is safe and elicits an immune response, according to a study published Wednesday in The New England Journal of Medicine. The results had previously been announced by the company in early August.”

“Five vaccines are in clinical trials in the US, and 33 around the world, according to the World Health Organization.”

There are already 9 vaccines in phase 3 – I believe the odds of passing phase 3 for vaccines is around 60% this means the odds of an improved vaccine is very high.

Brazil tops death chart second is the US at 1056

Texas leads the death at 165 – CA leads confirmation at 5664

Leading death county is LA at 49 which also leads the confirmation.

The big 4 counties are still declining in confirmation using a 7 day moving average.

All the major European countries are now on a uptrend in confirmations -as noted previously Spain back to April levels.