Covid 10/16/20 | COVID 19 Information Page

Covid19mathblog.com

Well HCQ on a cost benefit analysis did perform better than Remdesiver, Lopinavir, and Interferon given the conclusion from WHO megastudy as they conclude they all did not demonstrate any mortality improvement – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20209817v1

“These Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on hospitalized COVID-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay. The mortality findings contain most of the randomized evidence on Remdesivir and Interferon, and are consistent with meta-analyses of mortality in all major trials.”

Looks like marginally HCQ performed better than Remdesivir

On other more depressing 2020 news – excess deaths in 2020 ONLY 67% can be attributed to covid-19 – https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761?guestAccessKey=92828e1e-363a-491b-83af-ec3ce0cde3f6&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=101220

“Between March 1 and August 1, 2020, 1 336 561 deaths occurred in the US, a 20% increase over expected deaths (1 111 031 [95% CI, 1 110 364 to 1 111 697]). The 10 states with the highest per capita rate of excess deaths were New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Arizona, Mississippi, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Michigan. The states with the highest per capita rate of excess deaths changed from week to week (Video). The increase in absolute deaths in these states relative to expected values ranged from 22% in Rhode Island and Michigan to 65% in New York (Table). Three states with the highest death rates (New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts) accounted for 30% of US excess deaths but had the shortest epidemics (ED90 < 10 weeks). States that experienced acute surges in April (and reopened later) had shorter epidemics that returned to baseline in May, whereas states that reopened earlier experienced more protracted increases in excess deaths that extended into the summer (Figure).

Of the 225 530 excess deaths, 150 541 (67%) were attributed to COVID-19. Joinpoint analyses revealed an increase in deaths attributed to causes other than COVID-19, with 2 reaching statistical significance. US mortality rates for heart disease increased between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 5.1 [95% CI, 0.2-10.2]), driven by the spring surge in COVID-19 cases. Mortality rates for Alzheimer disease/dementia increased twice, between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 7.3 [95% CI, 2.9-11.8]) and between weeks ending June 6 and July 25 (APC, 1.5 [95% CI, 0.8-2.3]), the latter coinciding with the summer surge in sunbelt states.”

Covid-19 super spreading event is a function of our behaviors – in regions it is cold we go inside when temps get below 50 in hot regions when temps start going above 70 we go inside….No coincidence we have hot and cold states given the diversity of the US. It is this behavior that caused the massive spreads and our inability to execute simple mechanical solutions from forcing more outdoor air (open windows/ decrease economizer) to putting better filters in HVAC (MERV 13 to special deactivating coated filters). All the craze for hand sanitizers all for nothing – solving root causes is how problems are solved. Inventing a miracle cure or vaccine does nothing in the mean time that simple logic could have done.