Covid 10/24/20

Big smile on my face as I read the article – https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54599593 – but a big disappointment sets in as it took this long for A country to realize what the data had been saying all along. I hope crony capitalism has not caused this misallocation of capital and human resource. Certainly vaccine would bring more $ than fixing/modifying HVAC and the distribution of funds would be distributed among society as you have skilled labor winning out vs. executives. True capitalism could have brought this to the US sooner – but we put so many barriers and legal ramifications for people to implement potential lifesaving mechanical solutions.

“The German government is investing €500m (£452m; $488m) in improving ventilation systems in public buildings to help stop the spread of coronavirus.

The grants will go to improve the air circulation in public offices, museums, theatres, universities and schools. Private firms are not yet eligible.”

“The government also wants schools lacking central air conditioning systems to at least get mobile air purifiers. But much will also depend on how easily rooms can be ventilated simply by opening the windows.

The Bavarian broadcaster BR24 reports that the mobile ventilators, which filter out tiny particles and cost from €2,000 each, can effectively purify a room within minutes.

But German experts say apparatus that relies on UV-light, ionisation or ozone can be ineffective against coronavirus, and in some cases worsen the air quality.”

“Fresh air has, for a while now, been seen as a key to dealing with coronavirus too. L for Luft (air) was recently added to A for Abstand (distance), H for Hygiene and A for Alltagsmaske (mask) – the official government directives on how to live in corona times.

So choirs rehearse in rooms open to the elements. Train windows are cranked open. Diners are still being served outdoors at many establishments, prompting a national ethical debate over patio heaters.

But, as the air turns sharper and colder, it is education ministers who are feeling the chill. It has been mooted – not always in jest – that children should attend lessons wrapped in coats, gloves, hats and perhaps a duvet, prompting fury among teachers.”

“And many German classrooms, in poor repair after prolonged underinvestment, simply do not have windows that open. German engineers are on the case though. I recently visited a company which usually manufactures heating and ventilation systems. It has now created an air filtration system designed with windowless classrooms in mind.”

“The German government’s advice is to open windows for at least five minutes every hour, for example during class changeovers in schools.

The UK’s Health and Safety Executive also recommends fans to dissipate pockets of stale air in rooms and using a fresh air supply, instead of just recirculating air through the air conditioning system.”

Lets review the US county data as this is where the truth lies – not in country data, not in state data – aggregation of data is statistical killer. The level of precision is needed to at least a county level given the spread is somewhat focused.

Below is every county with over 1000 confirmations. You will note the avg confirmation in the US is 3.2% with the highest being 22% Trousdale TN – as noted https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/6/covid-6-27-20/ – this is a prison county. Nonetheless months later the death per capita there ended up at only 0.1%! You can also see that population and the amount of confirmed is independent of the death per capita.

If we zoom in to only counties with 8% of confirmed/capita we get the following

Researching Chattahoochee given essentially 0% death – its hard to find out what really is going on.

I came across this article which shows perhaps they are more cognizant of other issues beyond covid?

https://www.wtvm.com/2020/10/22/chattahoochee-county-school-district-puts-focus-mental-health-students/

“The school district is putting the mental health of their students first during this school year due to COVID-19.

A study conducted at the national level says roughly 72 percent of children ages five through 17 are suffering from some sort of mental condition triggered by the coronavirus.

To help students cope with that, Chattahoochee schools are focusing more on mental health awareness and making sure every child is heard in their Free Your Feels program.

Fifth-grader Taylor Leach said with her counselor’s help, she has been able to work through feelings like anxiety.”

This is so real – there is going to be a big mental health impact on this youth and I hope policy makers realize this.

I also found this article – https://www.gpb.org/news/2020/08/06/georgia-surpasses-200000-covid-19-cases-hot-spots-remain

We are well past the timeline if deaths were going to knock – article August 6th 2020 – https://www.gpb.org/news/2020/08/06/georgia-surpasses-200000-covid-19-cases-hot-spots-remain

“One of the continuing COVID-19 hot spots is in Chattahoochee County, near Columbus in west Georgia.

The county contains a large part of Fort Benning, an Army post that is implementing strict measures to contain the spread of COVID-19.”

Chattahoochee County is listed as having the highest virus rate in Georgia over the past two weeks and among the highest in the nation, according to state Public Health figures and the New York Times.

In mid-June, the county had 304 people infected. Now it’s at 696, up 31 cases just over the past day. Fortunately, Chattahoochee has recorded just one COVID-related death.

ConnectingVets.com reported in June that more than 140 new recruits at Fort Benning had tested positive for COVID-19. All but four had tested negative previously, when they arrived at the facility. “

One would think this would be worthy of a study? Perhaps just youth sick – perhaps test bad – perhaps they have great treatment? Prisons and Army facility is where you want to get covid? Given the results SHOULD Chattahoochee kids be isolated and not allowed to go to school?

Another day below 1K worldwide – US leads at 943

Texas leads in death 114

Hidalgo TX county leads the US – once again a border county in TX – Mobile AL post 2320 confirmation day.

Deaths are not coming down in Europe – this along with confirmation rising. Quarantine is not WORKING – it could actually cause more as people are not going into facilities that COULD reduce viral load – e.g. public/office buildings Germany deaths are way lower than most of the other major European countries.