Covid19mathblog.com

Daily dose of wellness in the flu season – and now Covid season – Vitamin C D Zinc and some melatonin – another reason for Vitamin D – https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33164936/

“Vitamin D supplementation for 12 months appears to improve cognitive function through reducing oxidative stress regulated by increased TL in order adults with MCI. Vitamin D may be a promising public health strategy to prevent cognitive decline.”

Vitamin D should be free for the public. Likely more effective than unenforceable laws/restrictions.

Continuing with the Vaccine news – we have CureVac say its RNA vaccine doesn’t require the refrigeration load required from Pfizer – https://nypost.com/2020/11/12/curevac-says-its-covid-19-vaccine-can-be-stored-in-standard-fridges/

“German biotechnology firm CureVac boasted Thursday that its potential COVID-19 vaccine can be stored at standard refrigerator temperatures — unlike rival Pfizer’s, which needs to be kept in ultra-frigid storage.

The company said the liquid vaccine is able to be maintained at 41 degrees Fahrenheit for at least three months before it spoils.

The vaccine, which is anticipated to soon enter Phase III trials, can also be kept at room temperature for up to 24 hours, the company said.”

“Though most vaccines are protein-based, CureVac and Pfizer’s ones are formulated from a synthetic mRNA. However, the mRNA component in the Pfizer vaccine can fall apart if not stored at the correct temperature, experts said.

“The vaccine is so fragile. This mRNA begins to degrade at warmer temperatures very quickly and so it has to be maintained at this very, very cold temperature,” Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of infectious disease at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told The Post.

It’s unclear why the CureVac shot has a better shelf life, but the company said it is continuing to study such factors.”

Testing concern noted here several times – more evidence that PCR test are not testing for what you really want to know – infectious – not existence – can you imagine testing to see if someone had traces of a cold virus of recent (this year) you would find a lot of people both symptomatic and asymptomatic – https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.7570?guestAccessKey=26a817a5-2e73-4c00-9fc8-42493feb1b6e&utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jamainternalmedicine&utm_content=olf&utm_term=111220

“32 of 176 NOS samples (18.2%) tested positive for total SARS-CoV-2 RNA, with viral loads ranging from 1.6 × 101 to 1.3 × 104 SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies per mL. One of the 32 samples (3.1%) had replicative SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Samples from the 32 patients at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis were also tested and, expectedly, had replicative SARS-CoV-2 RNA. All but 1 of 32 patients had a positive serology result against SARS-CoV-2 (Table), as well as 139 of remaining 144 patients (data not shown), at COVID-19 follow-up. The patient who tested serologically negative was not the one with a positive test result for replicative SARS-CoV-2 RNA. The mean (SD) time from COVID-19 diagnosis to follow-up was 48.6 (13.1) days in 32 patients (Table) and 57.7 (16.9) days in 144 patients (data not shown).”

“18% of patients with COVID-19 in our institution became RT-PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA after clinical recovery and previous negative results.5 As positivity in the patients was suggestive, but not necessarily a reflection, of viral carriage, we used replicative SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection as a proxy for virus replication in culture.4

Only 1 of 32 patients retesting positive had replicating virus in the NOS sample, suggesting either recurrent infection or reinfection, which is impossible to separate because no whole-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analyses were performed.3 The patient retested positive 16 days after COVID-19 recovery (ie, 39 days from COVID-19 diagnosis) and was symptomatic. The patient was an older adult with hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease but no evidence of close contacts with people with SARS-CoV-2 infection or persons who became RT-PCR positive. In the 31 remaining patients (who were asymptomatic), their positive result likely represented either recurrent or resolving infection, but in either case, they were unlikely to be infectious. The limitations of our study are the lack of data from viral cultures or whole-genome sequencing analysis and the small sample size.”

“This study highlights that many patients who recovered from COVID-19 may be still positive (albeit at lower levels) for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, but only a minority of the patients may carry a replicating SARS-CoV-2 in the respiratory tract. Further studies are needed to verify whether such patients can transmit the virus.”

IF true we are quarantining unnecessary – we need to identify super spreader and the current PCR testing is a very crude approach.

School review – overall shows schools are not super spreader environment – something else causing most of the increases:

El Paso TX awful surge of covid – was not due to school as they have been the most closed in TX – never opening beyond 30% in person. Could it have been worse if they were open? Perhaps but looking at the counites that have been open Ft. Bend,Travis, and Bexar this has not been the case.

FL – rise in confirmation seen in Broward county as they opened However the other schools are also seeing the rise recently BUT they have been opened for 50 days before and did not see the rise till now – so this could be a natural rise whether schools open or not

CA has no diversity off school opening – the entire state quite uniform. San Diego is seeing a slight more rise than Santa Clara as they have a slight edge on in person school 10%

Ohio Stark county is taking off – but notice Lorain is also taking off and they have no in person school

Colorado Boulder shows a better control of increase confirmation and they have the lowest in school.

PA – Dauphin has been 0 in person for school yet confirmation has been rising they recently open 50% but yet no dramatic increase relative to centre who has been at 50%

No country above 1K

FL lead in deaths with Il continuing enormous confirmations 12+K

County leader in death Osceola FL – first time leader – Cook IL testing is off the chart

Lots of dispersion compared to summer time months

World view – we are past the spring peak in terms of death per day. Confirmations are almost 6X from spring. Testing data is very sporadic but the trend is clearly more testing – confirmation/testing has declined and now is around 6.5% worldwide. But imagine if we tested asymptomatic cold/flu people how much confirmation we would see in those categories.