Covid19mathblog.com
I am sure you are seeing articles such as this – which are for sure very alarming – https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/13/us-states-covid-coronavirus-hot-spot-pandemic-catastrophe/
This would surely support a massive quarantine and travel restrictions, but state level numbers though show high numerical numbers are not really explaining the issue.
Below are charts for the last 30 days (large assumption going past 30 days – those confirmations are no longer infectious given recovered or past away (some are noting longer infectious than 30 days but seem very rare))
Everyone loves to talk about TX and their big numbers and TX citizens should be banned from traveling to other states.
So the past 30 days show the big numbers are from El Paso TX a border county. Very serious for sure as the odds of bumping into an individual that is infectious is 5% – so if you meet with 20 people likely you have met with 1 person that is infectious. However if you go to the more popular region – Harris County (Houston) you would have to meet with 200 person before bumping into someone that is infectious. Childress TX – county near OK small population of 7K the odds is almost 1 out of 10. Clearly that region needs to be careful and figure out what to do. But on a county basis large dispersion of odds – with most of the population less than 1%
The other big number state for the last 30 day IL. They have had some astronomical figures – almost to the point of unbelievable. They have tested – IF you believe their testing numbers are unique persons – but they don’t clarify that on site https://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/covid19-statistics – they have tested 70% of population of the state! IF lets say it really 3 test for per person then its still 23% of the state. Nonetheless the epicenter of the numbers is Cook County IL. Still the odds of bumping into someone infectious in that county is meeting with 66 people. But unlike TX the dispersion of odds is relatively consistent across IL so there is a real concern in this state vs. TX. A travel ban to IL perhaps is reasonable.
LA in CA has shown big numbers but they have the population to disperse the odds. They are showing similar odds to Harris County TX – so roughly have to meet with 200 before bumping into someone that is infectious. There are some hot spots Mono and Alpine County.
Big deaths and confirmation reporting for the US
TX leading both confirmation and deaths. IL 2nd in confirmation.
County view – Cook IL leads in confirmation 6k – then El Paso TX at 3K – El Paso TX also leads all US county at 49 deaths.
Dispersion of results continue – unlike the summer time.
Europe is no longer spiking. Some are coming down e.g. France and Belgium. Does quarantine mean less testing to?
