Covid19mathblog.com

Well what is making the round is A study potentially concluding mask are not effective – another proof of confirmation bias – as people are seriously reading into the study what they WANT to see/hear – https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817

“Conclusion: The recommendation to wear surgical masks to supplement other public health measures did not reduce the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate among wearers by more than 50% in a community with modest infection rates, some degree of social distancing, and uncommon general mask use. The data were compatible with lesser degrees of self-protection.”

“The findings, however, should not be used to conclude that a recommendation for everyone to wear masks in the community would not be effective in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections, because the trial did not test the role of masks in source control of SARS-CoV-2 infection. During the study period, authorities did not recommend face mask use outside hospital settings and mask use was rare in community settings (22). This means that study participants’ exposure was overwhelmingly to persons not wearing masks.”

“In addition, the wearer of a face mask may change to a less cautious behavior because of a false sense of security, as pointed out by WHO (17); accordingly, our face mask group seemed less worried (Supplement Table 4), which may explain their increased willingness to wear face masks in the future”

The conclusions of the report for the anti-mask folks is interpreted mask has not effect – even though in the report it clearly says in the conclusion section by more than 50%…..so 49% is still better than 0%?

In addition though they did a good job of normalizing occupation – they didn’t do any normalization or discussion on normalizing personalities/social preferences/family size/ etc…

They also note in the study they didn’t make sure the candidates did not behave the same way if they were without the mask. Okay seriously its JUST COMMON SENSE – do we really need a study for common sense? Mask wearing will reduce the probability of infection in a same setting/same behavior than without a mask. This type of “study” is complete BS as one cannot normalize the multiple variables of life. However we can do this in a very black and white setting on non-humans e.g. Guinea pigs and have proven that a filtration mechanism REDUCES viral load and chances of infection.

Personally I wear in public setting the Acteev mask as they are lined with zinc/magnesium to deactivate the virus so it goes beyond just holding the virus from getting in.

It is amazing what China has achieved in terms of eliminating Covid – but our society just isn’t designed for this. Can we implement quarantine camps? This would be a disaster PR – separating kids and parents – potentially moving a disproportionate race into camps – remember the crap given preventing certain foreigners in – Imagine trusting your neighbor to shop for you? – no debate on measures – immigrants left in the dust – https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-crushed-coronavirus-pandemic

“Committee members live within the residential compounds they manage. They kept track of those entering and exiting, enforced lockdown orders, recorded temperatures. If a case occurred, they locked the apartment block’s main door. They tracked down those who didn’t want to quarantine – in those situations a nosy neighbour was often more effective than any technological notification. They organised grocery deliveries so that people could stay at home.”

“This employee says that outsiders coming in must isolate to “become a normal person.” Only then can they rejoin society. The heart of China’s coronavirus response is, in short, infected until proven healthy.

Chinese nationals and foreign workers fly in from other countries everyday, some of them carrying Covid-19. These “imported cases” can number in the double digits. The aviation authority throttles flights to control the number of people coming in. People returning from high-risk countries such as the UK need to present a negative on both a nucleic acid and antibody test before boarding the plane, and they are tested again upon arrival.”

“Each person flying into Shanghai has a group of three people assigned to them: a doctor, a policeman, and a neighbourhood committee member. Quarantine is mandatory – at home or in a hotel – and the quarantined are not allowed to venture outside. Those who choose home will find a device mounted on their front door. Whenever they open it, the doctor and the Party committee member’s phones receive an alert, and a call will come in to ask why they have opened the door”

“Supply shortages were dealt with by leveraging China’s supply chain advantages – within two weeks, electric vehicle manufacturer BYD had started producing millions of masks, which it is now shipping overseas to California too. After patients with mild symptoms were discovered to have infected their family members, the government changed its policy. Instead of allowing people to stay at home, medical authorities took them to shelter hospitals called fangcang, separating them from their families. Fangcang are, in essence, large convention centres with rows of beds. Those staying there describe 600-people-strong dorm rooms where the lights are always on. Later, asymptomatic cases had the same treatment. Patients could only leave these hospitals after they tested negative twice, and then stayed in quarantine wards for another two weeks. Avoiding quarantine, hiding symptoms or concealing that you had been to a virus hotspot were designated crimes.”

“China’s virus control effort was single-minded – the goal was always total elimination. Officials were fired for perceived dereliction of duty, or promoted for successfully controlling the virus. There was never large-scale debate on the efficacy of masks, or whether only vulnerable people should shelter, or whether there was a trade off between saving the economy and saving lives, or whether the cost was greater than the cure. And it was costly: 25 million migrant workers may be out of a job. There is no furlough scheme for them. As in other countries, Covid-19 revealed social inequities – it is no coincidence that those detected in clusters since have been workers at markets in Beijing, docks in Qingdao, and a factory in Kashgar. And the narrative of success is such that those who might feel otherwise, who lost relatives in Wuhan, have faced interrogations and suspicion from local authorities.”

Even healthy and young probably not worth the risk to get covid given 10% of covid-19 develop lasting symptoms – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/19/long-covid-overlap-emerges-with-me-including-debate-over-treatment

“Based on current estimates, about 10% of Covid-19 patients develop lasting symptoms, one of the most common being fatigue. The underlying mechanism is still unclear, but possible explanations include reduced oxygen supply to tissues caused by heart or lung damage, or muscle weakness from prolonged bed rest.”

“Like people with ME/CFS, many long-Covid patients report headaches, brain fog, sleep problems, a racing heart, joint and muscle pain and fatigue. Some also experience a relapse of fever, muscle pain and exhaustion, known as “post-exertional malaise”, if they exercise beyond their capabilities.

Lets get more vaxphoria – certainly seems the vaccine should be right around the corner – I wonder how the vaccine impacts other coronavirus e.g. common cold – Imagine the productivity boost if common cold is also reduced. – https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/19/oxford-covid-vaccine-prompts-immune-response-among-all-adults-study.html

“The study of 560 healthy adults, including 240 over the age of 70-years-old, found the vaccine to be safe and produced a similar immune response among people aged over 56-years-old and those aged between 18 and 55.

British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca, which is working in collaboration with the University of Oxford, has previously said interim data showed their experimental vaccine had produced an immune response in older and younger adults.

The authors of the Oxford study said their results could be encouraging if the immune responses are found to be associated with protection against Covid-19 infection.

The phase two trial did not assess vaccine efficacy, however, and phase three trials are ongoing to confirm this.”

US leading death and confirmation

TX leads in both death and confirmation

Cook County fell to 3rd place in confirmation – LA back on top – RI second place. Cook IL however leads in death. A TX county doesn’t show up till 4th place – El Paso TX. The dispersion and geographical largess makes TX seem to be a hot spot – but that’s not the reality.

Map is less disperse today.

Last 30 days the top counties you probably don’t want to be socializing in – Salt Lake Utah, Cook IL, Hennepin Mn, Tarrant TX

Country wise – the US is not the worse place in terms of the odds of bumping into someone with covid – Eastern Europe countries looking bad – along with Belgium, France, and Switzerland. Asian countries very low.

Death wise US is even lower in terms of relative to the avg of those countries 1K+