Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine wars – AstraZeneca vaccine study about to be released and will be a fraction of the price set by Pfizer. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-22/astra-oxford-shot-is-key-to-escaping-pandemic-for-many-nations

“Findings from the final stage of AstraZeneca Plc’s vaccine studies are due to be released shortly, and the stakes for lower- and middle-income nations are immense. The shot developed with the University of Oxford accounts for more than 40% of the supplies going to those countries, based on deals tracked by London-based research firm Airfinity Ltd.

The Astra vaccine costs a fraction of the price set by Pfizer and will be manufactured in multiple countries, from India to Brazil. It should be easier to deploy far and wide than other shots that need to be stored at ultra-cold temperatures. But if the U.K. partners can’t match the lofty efficacy levels Pfizer and Moderna delivered or roll out their inoculation quickly, the pandemic might continue spreading death and disease in countries relying on it.”

“Pfizer applied Friday for an emergency use authorization in the U.S., and may begin the rollout in mid-December. While wealthy nations are in a position to receive the first supplies of the Pfizer and Moderna shots thanks to significant quantities they’ve snapped up in advance, most regions are depending heavily on companies following the front-runners, especially AstraZeneca, Novavax Inc. and Johnson & Johnson. Supplies will likely struggle to meet demand in the months after vaccines arrive, raising concerns about global access.”

“Astra has said it won’t profit during the pandemic and that the vaccine will cost between $4 and $5 a dose, though health advocates worry what that company and others will charge when the crisis is deemed over.

The U.S. agreed in July to obtain the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine in a deal that sets the price at $19.50 a dose, or $39 for a two-shot immunization, a level BioNTech said could become a benchmark for developed nations. Moderna said it’s charging $32 to $37 a dose for smaller deals and less for bigger purchases.”

“Astra-Oxford also has advantages beyond cost when it comes to the rollout in low- and middle-income countries. The global scope of manufacturing eases worries about countries restricting exports, and the product should be easier to transport and store, according to Eccleston-Turner, the Keele expert.

The jab importantly can be kept at refrigerator temperatures, while those from Pfizer and Moderna, based on novel messenger RNA technology, require freezing for longer-term storage and transport.

That’s why so many countries are eagerly awaiting the Astra results and focusing on the next candidates, including those from China. Russia also plans to produce the Sputnik V vaccine in other countries such as India and Brazil.

“All of the wealthy countries are now fairly well positioned,” said Moon, the health specialist in Geneva.”

Within the world context there will be disparity to those who get it and those that don’t. The distribution in the US will likely have their own disparity from who (age? Health? Access?) and where (states, counties). Clearly if the goal is to minimize deaths then the initial vaccine should be directed to the hotspots to the elder group with multiple comorbidity.

Good write up describing mRNA vaccine – https://www.sciencealert.com/the-pfizer-and-moderna-vaccines-are-a-breakthrough-here-s-how-they-work

“Vaccines traditionally contain either weakened viruses or purified signature proteins of the virus.

But an mRNA vaccine is different, because rather than having the viral protein injected, a person receives genetic material – mRNA – that encodes the viral protein.

When these genetic instructions are injected into the upper arm, the muscle cells translate them to make the viral protein directly in the body.

This approach mimics what the SARS-CoV-2 does in nature – but the vaccine mRNA codes only for the critical fragment of the viral protein. This gives the immune system a preview of what the real virus looks like without causing disease… After an mRNA injection, this molecule guides the protein production inside the muscle cells, which reaches peak levels for 24 to 48 hours and can last for a few more days..”

“For example, for seasonal flu, it takes roughly six months from identification of the circulating influenza virus strain to produce a vaccine. The candidate flu vaccine virus is grown for about three weeks to produce a hybrid virus, which is less dangerous and better able to grow in hens’ eggs.

The hybrid virus is then injected into a lot of fertilized eggs and incubated for several days to make more copies. Then the fluid containing the virus is harvested from eggs, the vaccine viruses are killed, and the viral proteins are purified over several days.

The mRNA vaccines can leapfrog the hurdles of developing traditional vaccines, such as producing non-infectious viruses, or producing viral proteins at medically demanding levels of purity.

MRNA vaccines eliminate much of the manufacturing process because rather than having viral proteins injected, the human body uses the instructions to manufacture viral proteins itself.

Also, mRNA molecules are far simpler than proteins. For vaccines, mRNA is manufactured by chemical rather than biological synthesis, so it is much quicker than conventional vaccines to be redesigned, scaled up, and mass-produced.

In fact, within days of the genetic code of the SARS-CoV-2 virus becoming available, the mRNA code for a candidate vaccine testing was ready. What’s most attractive is that once the mRNA vaccine tools become viable, mRNA can be quickly tailored for other future pandemics.”

“MRNA technology isn’t new. It was shown a while back that when synthetic mRNA is injected into an animal, the cells can produce a desired protein. But the progress remained slow.

That’s because mRNA is not only notoriously unstable and easy to degrade into smaller components, it is also easily destroyed by the human body’s immune defenses, which make delivering it to the target very inefficient.

But beginning in 2005, researchers figured out how to stabilize mRNA and package it into small particles to deliver it as a vaccine. The mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are expected to be the first using this technology to be approved by the FDA.

After a decade of work, the mRNA vaccines are now ready for evaluation.”

“The most important challenge for development of an mRNA vaccine remains its inherent instability because it is more likely to break apart above freezing temperatures.”

“The Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine will need to be optimally stored at minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 70 degrees Celsius) and will degrade in around five days at normal refrigeration temperatures of slightly above freezing.

In contrast, Moderna claims its vaccine can be maintained at most home or medical freezer temperatures for up to six months for shipping and longer-term storage. Moderna also claims its vaccine can remain stable at standard refrigerated conditions, of 36 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit (2 to 8 degrees Celsius), for up to 30 days after thawing, within the six-month shelf life.”

Likely collateral damage of Covid actions – https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/state/suicide-is-now-the-leading-cause-of-death-for-children-ages-10-to-14-in-ohio

“Suicide is now the leading cause of death for children ages 10 to 14 in Ohio, according to a report from the Ohio Department of Health about suicide in Ohio.”

Super high confirmation day for the US along with 1.4K deaths Italy is 2nd place

Europe confirmations are flattening out. US still climbing.

CA leads confirmation with IL leading in death

Cook county leading in death by a long shot after leading the US with confirmation for so many days – now LA leading in confirmation. El Paso TX continues to be very high in death. To understand the largess of TX and to rollup the data to state level is ridiculous – El Paso is 10 hour+ drive to Houston TX.

You can see El Paso TX is not surrounded with deaths in the interior of TX to any major metropolitan for 100’s of miles.