Covid19mathblog.com
Happy Thanksgiving – It has been a very tough year – but there are certainly silver linings in the cloud to be thankful for. Vaccine seems to be inevitable in some form. We have learned a lot and should take our learnings for future pandemics so we will do better next time. Health is the most valuable asset as it is intertwined with Time – which no matter how much your bid is you just can’t buy it. The rich and famous suffer the inevitable destination we are all set on sooner than expected – RIP Kobe and his daughter Gianna, the honorable Ruth Bader Ginsburg, great actors Sean Connery & Chadwick Boseman, actress Naya Rivera, host Alex Trebek & Regis Philbin, mythbuster Grant Imahara, – dang 2020 was tough I was thinking maybe a list of 20 – but its way longer 69 listed here – https://www.popsugar.com/celebrity/photo-gallery/47084634/image/47951566/Alex-Trebek
The data clearly shows if you are healthy you will survive covid plus all the many other comorbidities.
Prevention of reduction of viral load has been a big message. It was always premised on the fact your body has natural defenses and as long as you are healthy you can take on SOME viral load. This study quantifies that level of viral load – which is not 0! – https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/11/20/scitranslmed.abe2555.full
“We found that most of the investigated infections likely involved the effective transmission of at least 1000 viral particles between individuals, suggesting that social distancing and mask wearing may be effective even when they cannot prevent the spread of all viral particles. As a future perspective, our study supports the relevance of investigating viral genome evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in order to enable informed decision-making by public health authorities”
I have run out of logic to talk to people who don’t want to wear mask – and all the recent study showing mask is ineffective – these studies don’t take into account how individual acts and associations etc…IF you are in a room with a person with covid-19 – you WILL reduce SOME probability of getting infected because you WILL lower the viral load coming into your body – and vice versa IF you are the person infected and you don’t want others to be infected. As noted above IF you can keep the viral load below 1000 viral particles you will increase your chances of not getting infected. You don’t have to wear your mask ALL the time – but when in a situation involving others in an enclosed space or nearby a mask will shift the odds to your favor.
Vaccine news – China has tested their vaccine on 1 Million! https://www.vox.com/2020/11/25/21612338/does-china-have-a-covid-19-vaccine-1-million-sinopharm-sinovac
“Two other vaccine makers — Moderna and AstraZeneca and Oxford in the UK — have also released promising phase 3 data showing high efficacy and no serious adverse events for their candidate vaccines.
The three vaccines approved in China’s emergency use program, on the other hand, have yet to report any results from their phase 3 trials. The trials are underway in countries other than China where transmission is still high enough to quickly test the protectiveness of the vaccine. A Sinovac official said they are likely to report initial phase 3 data within the next month.”
“International public health experts have warned that vaccination before the evidence is in from phase 3 trials could expose recipients of the vaccine to unknown risks without actually protecting them from the virus, if the vaccine doesn’t prove to be sufficiently effective.
Yet Chinese central government officials have defended the program as necessary to protect Chinese citizens, even though Covid-19 cases in China remain very low. Local officials are under pressure to keep transmission at zero, so they have an incentive to allow vaccine distribution in their regions, said Yanzhong Huang, a professor of global health at Seton Hall University.”
“Chinese companies have five of the 13 vaccines in phase 3 trials. Sinopharm’s vaccines are already being deployed outside China — the United Arab Emirates has also approved the vaccines for emergency use.”
“Zhejiang province appears to be particularly open to administering the vaccines. As of mid-October, the provincial government said almost 750,000 doses of Covid-19 vaccines have been doled out in Zhejiang. The news site Caixin reported that health care workers had received a vaccine at a Hangzhou hospital.”
“Local governments want to keep the virus completely contained to avoid consequences from higher-ups and the mass testing campaigns and lockdowns that have followed China’s small outbreaks over the previous months. Meanwhile, vaccine makers are making money through the emergency use program, Huang said.
The Chinese public has also been shown to be very open to Covid-19 vaccines. A survey published in Nature found that 90 percent of respondents in China would accept a vaccine — the highest rate among the 19 countries in the study.”
“Interim results from the phase 1 and 2 trials of the Sinopharm vaccine developed by subsidiary Wuhan Institute of Biological Products published in JAMA showed that the vaccine produced an immune response and recipients had low rates of adverse effects. A study of the phase 1 and 2 results from Sinopharm’s other vaccine, developed by the Beijing Institute of Biological Products, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases last month, had similar findings.
Last week, results from Sinovac’s combined phase 1 and 2 trials were also published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases. The data shows that the vaccine doses triggered an immune response and did not cause any severe reactions among the 700 people tested,”
“Inactivated virus vaccines, like the three distributed Chinese vaccines, do not have to be kept so cold, and therefore don’t require the same kind of investment for distribution. “CoronaVac could be an attractive option because it can be stored in a standard refrigerator between 2 and 8 degrees centigrade, which is typical for many existing vaccines including flu,” Gang Zeng, a medical manager at Sinovac, stated in a press release for the Lancet study. “The vaccine may also remain stable for up to three years in storage, which would offer some advantages for distribution to regions where access to refrigeration is challenging.”
Zheng Zhongwei, the Chinese official in charge of vaccine development, has said that the country plans to have 600 million doses of vaccine ready by end of this year and 1 billion by the end of 2021.”
US continues to soar in confirmation and deaths
US has not fared well the last 30 days for confirmation. Confirmation per capita is getting up there but looks like E. Europe is worse.
On the death front US absolute numbers are high but on a per capita they are faring below the avg – with European countries much worse.
TX leads US in death – CA leads in confirmation
Unfortunately I had to up the limit on the charts so it would be readable. Confirmation now 1000+ deaths 10+
Rhode Island leading all counties in confirmation – then LA.
Deaths LA leads – then a new one Clark OH in second place.
Very disperse vs. the summer run up
LA has surpassed their daily summer peak for confirmation – deaths are getting up there.
