Covid 12/12/20

Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine news….

FDA issue emergency use authorization of Pfizer vaccine – https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19

“The FDA has determined that Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine has met the statutory criteria for issuance of an EUA. The totality of the available data provides clear evidence that Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine may be effective in preventing COVID-19. The data also support that the known and potential benefits outweigh the known and potential risks, supporting the vaccine’s use in millions of people 16 years of age and older, including healthy individuals. In making this determination, the FDA can assure the public and medical community that it has conducted a thorough evaluation of the available safety, effectiveness and manufacturing quality information.”

A good summary of all the Chinese vaccines and where they are – certainly more volume of testing than Pfizer – https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/chinas-covid-vaccines-how-do-they-work/

“Sinovac Life Sciences is a private Chinese company that focuses on research, development and manufacturing of human and animal vaccines. It has developed and commercialized six vaccines for human use, and one for animals.

The company’s Covid-19 vaccine, called CoronaVac, is an inactivated vaccine. It has recently been shipped to Indonesia.

It’s manufactured by growing the Covid-19 virus in laboratories and treating it with a chemical that inactivates it. The chemical locks the virus in a state where it’s unable to replicate, but its structure is maintained, allowing the body to recognize it as foreign and mount an immune response….Having shown a substantial immune response and minimal safety concerns (mostly mild pain at the injection site) in phase 1 and 2 clinical trials, CoronaVac is now in phase 3 clinical trials. The phase 3 trials have recruited tens of thousands of participants to test vaccine efficacy and safety, and are taking place in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey.”

“Sinopharm is a state-owned Chinese company that researches, develops and distributes vaccines and other pharmaceuticals. It has produced a number of drugs that’ve been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, and by EU authorities.

The two Covid-19 vaccines being developed by Sinopharm are both inactivated vaccines. Both follow a similar inactivation process as the Sinovac vaccine, and also use adjuvants to stimulate an immune response.

Both have undergone phase 1 and 2 clinical trials with encouraging results. They produced an effective immune response in participants and reported adverse reactions, including pain at the injection site and fever, were mild and quickly resolved. Certain doses generated SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies in all phase 1 and 2 trial participants. Both vaccines are currently in phase 3 trials. Again, despite incomplete clinical trials, both are reported to have been distributed for use by Chinese government officials and health-care workers.

What’s more, the United Arab Emirates, a site of ongoing phase 3 trials, granted emergency use for one of Sinopharm’s vaccines in September, following testing in 31,000 participants.”

"CanSino Biologics This Chinese company has developed a Covid-19 vaccine based on an adenovirus in partnership with the Chinese Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The adenovirus is unable to cause disease itself, but is used to deliver a coronavirus protein.

Phase 2 clinical trials reported the vaccine to be safe and induce significant immune responses in most participants.

This vaccine was also approved for limited use by the Chinese military in June, around the time of the conclusion of phase 2 trials.

Phase 3 clinical trials, which began in August, are ongoing in countries including Saudi Arabia.”

Bad news on vaccine front – delayed until late 2021 – https://www.axios.com/glaxosmithkline-sanofi-covid-vaccine-delayed-pfizer-7ee72f10-5315-4454-8baf-0f2960205482.html

“GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi announced on Friday that their coronavirus vaccine program would be delayed until late 2021 in order to improve immune response in older adults.

Why it matters: It’s a blow to hopes that the U.S. will have an array of vaccines available for distribution by early 2021. The Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed paid the companies $2.1 billion over the summer to cover some manufacturing costs and purchase an initial batch of 100 million doses.

The state of play: GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi said they plan to launch another study in February that will include comparing its vaccines to an authorized one. If the results are promising, Phase 3 trials — which were scheduled to begin next month — could start in the second quarter of next year, moving the vaccine’s possible availability to the third or fourth quarter.”

It is interesting to ponder how much the government can/should impact society. Banning business and curfews – it would seem perhaps the power should be used to produce positive outcomes. One the silver lining in covid was perhaps we could get healthy as a society but for some reason that message has gotten lost and we can just take a vaccine or expect the medical industry to save you with innovative drug so you can maintain your existing lifestyle. Here is an interesting piece of suggesting to make America more physically active – https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/what-if-all-americans-exercised-regularly

“Fewer than one in four Americans get enough physical exercise, defined as at least 150 minutes of moderate or 75 minutes of vigorous activity each week, coupled with two bouts of muscle-strengthening. While this statistic may come across as societal scolding – easily ignored – it has huge ramifications for Americans’ lives and the economy.”

“Regular exercise prevents and even reverses type II diabetes, drastically reduces the chances of heart attack and stroke, lowers the odds of developing cancer and dementia, and boosts the immune system, shortening the duration of syndromes like the common cold, influenza, and COVID-19 as well as reducing their severity. There’s more: exercise improves your sex life, prevents or ameliorates depression, helps you sleep, alleviates chronic pain, and makes you less susceptible to all sorts of injuries.

Unfortunately, hundreds of millions of Americans are unable or unwilling to take advantage of these real and tangible advantages. This has consequences. According to a 2018 study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control, 8.3% of yearly deaths in nondisabled adults 25 or older can be attributed to inadequate physical activity. MBA students at the University of North Carolina (UNC) translated these preventable deaths into terms of life expectancy. They estimated that Americans’ lack of exercise cost men 6.2 years of life and women 5.6 years.

Regular physical activity gives you longer to live, and as an added bonus, puts more money in your pocket. In 2016, research published in the Journal of the American Heart Association found that regular exercisers spent between $500 and $2,500 less on medical bills each year. These savings add up. The UNC team found that if all Americans were diligent about exercise, there would be a nationwide annual cost reduction of $143 Billion just from controlling diabetes and lowering blood pressure.”

No doubt Covid is real and impactive – but it is not far and away the worse category of death – yet – it did just pass heart disease – next is Cancer. However a healthy lifestyle will reduce the top 3 significantly (including covid) – should we focus on that vs closing business and gatherings?

Interesting Data update – Turkey magically added 824K confirmed case – not sure one could even test that much in a day! US deaths back above 3K

We know have a new number 1 death state in US – Iowa with 469

Linn Iowa is driving Iowa in deaths – however there has been significant data issues in that county of recent – https://kwwl.com/2020/12/04/235-linn-county-area-residents-mistakenly-told-they-were-covid-19-positive-after-first-getting-negative-results/

So I am suspect of this data point.

The typical LA and Cook and Maricopa makes sense

Still large parts of the country show minimal issues