Covid19mathblog.com
Big news is the new mutant strain in Covid identified in UK – supposedly more contagious – this article actually produces a percentage transmissible – https://au.news.yahoo.com/travellers-with-covid-mutant-strain-ravaging-uk-arrive-in-australia-062600021.html
“UK Health Minister Matt Hancock said a new strain of Covid-19 was 70 per cent more transmissible than the original.”
There goes Christmas for people in London:
“On Saturday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson tore up plans to allow three households to mix indoors for five days over the festive period and imposed new Tier 4 curbs – similar to a national lockdown in March – on London and southeast England.”
How enforceable will this be? Could we spend better resource and time to educate and help implement viral load reduction? I suspect when they say this strain is more transmissible they are still referring to viral load – in that to get infected by this strain the viral load can be lower than the original strain. So if you are in room with poor ventilation and the original strain took 10 min – now this one takes 3 minutes?
Ventilation can be checked with a cheap CO2 sensor. One can open windows – one can look into Air Free air unit – modify HVAC to add in an Energy Recovery Ventilator….There are many engineer solutions to reduce viral load. Material science adding a zinc/magnesium polymer can help deactivate the virus when added to filtration or mask (acteev). They have found sprays for nasal to block the spike connection for certain amount of time. All these SIMPLE things need to be promoted vs. spending so much trying to implement/enforce rules that are too restrictive to work. Deeming certain people less or more essential is very demoralizing. Also we do know who are likely to get infected with low viral load (elder with comorbidity) this section of society must be protected. Education and appreciation of peoples lives will go a long way vs. this massive shotgun approach with no precision.
Sunday reporting’s are the best…US only 1509 deaths under 200K confirmation!
US confirmation is a story of CA – southern CA – mainly LA. TX and NY tied for deaths.
However as a county – TX or NY don’t even show up in the top counts for deaths. Should issue being driven by Southern CA drive the entire country?
Not too much dispersion country wide
LA is just out there now….
What makes San Francisco so different than LA? It truly is a tale of two cities…San Fran is more dense – more public transport – yet multiple times less in death and confirmed per capita.
