Covid19mathblog.com
Endemic….this was brought up earlier. Largely as a result of the similarity of the common cold. It would be interesting to see how much the vaccine also limits the common cold. Article notes the relationship and study showing Covid will be an endemic but because of vaccine its outcome will be more inline with the common cold – which if you look at the data it is for the youth. The big conclusion not discussed as it becomes endemic for the elder the key thing will be to get more healthy as a society.
“Once we’ve all been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 or the vaccine, the virus will become “endemic,” the Times explains, meaning it’ll still hang around, but at low levels, rarely resulting in the serious symptoms we see now.”
“The researchers referred to six human coronaviruses, including the four responsible for the common cold, as well as SARS and MERS, to help predict SARS-CoV-2’s trajectory, per the Times. All six trigger a similar immune response, but SARS-CoV-2 seems to most closely resemble the four cold coronaviruses, which are endemic and cause only mild illness. (The SARS and MERS coronaviruses led to severe illness but were less widespread.)”
“Based on earlier data, Lavine and colleagues saw that most of us get infected with common cold coronaviruses for the first time when we’re around 3 to 5 years old, on average. We may then become re-infected multiple times, increasing our immunity and spreading the virus in the process, but without getting sick. SARS-CoV-2 may follow a similar path, the researchers assert.
It might be matter of years to decades of natural infections before SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic, Lavine told the Times, leaving large-scale illness and death in its wake. But with a quickly administered vaccine, this timeline could look more like a year or even half a year. The vaccine probably wouldn’t eradicate SARS-CoV-2, but instead render it less harmful.”
Interesting the Moderna CEO is saying the same thing now….perpetual earnings outlook? https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/13/moderna-ceo-says-the-world-will-have-to-live-with-the-coronavirus-forever.html
“Stephane Bancel, CEO of Covid-19 vaccine maker Moderna, warned Wednesday that the virus will be around “forever.”
Public health officials and infectious disease experts have said there is a high likelihood that Covid-19 will become an endemic disease, meaning it will be present at all times, though likely at lower levels than it is now.
“SARS-CoV-2 is not going away,” Bancel said during a panel discussion at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference.”
Once you got covid no need to get vaccine at least not until 5 months – probably should be as effective as the vaccine in timeline – https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/14/recovering-from-covid-gives-similar-level-of-protection-to-vaccine
“People who recover from coronavirus have a similar level of protection against future infection as those who receive a Covid vaccine – at least for the first five months, research suggests.”
Another big death day in the world
CA leads again in US
LA county by a long shot
LA likely still to get worse than better
