Covid19mathblog.com

Good news on vaccine front – https://fortune.com/2021/01/24/israel-covid-vaccine-cases-hospitalizations-decline/

“Israel’s world-leading campaign to vaccinate its citizens is beginning to rein in the disease, according to the country’s second-largest health network.

Maccabi Health Services studied a sample group of 50,777 people over the age of 60 inoculated in late December and then again in mid-January. Raw data showed that two days after the second shot, the number of new infections and hospitalizations were both down about 60% from their peak, researchers reported.

Trends began to shift around two weeks from the first dose, according to the analysis Maccabi’s KSM Research and Innovation Center did in collaboration with Israeli computational health researchers KI Institute.”

“A separate Israeli study of health workers who received two doses of the Pfizer Inc. shot found elevated levels of antibodies in nearly every participant that matched or exceeded clinical results. Israel has been largely using Pfizer’s vaccine since it began its immunization drive in late December, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offering data on the campaign to expedite and expand shipments. The country has been adhering to Pfizer’s guidance of a second shot about three weeks after the first, reserving second doses.

So far about 2.5 million people, or more than a quarter of the population, have received a first dose, with almost a million more getting the second. Children under 16, who have not been approved to take the vaccine, account for about 30% of the country’s 9.3 million people.

The country is currently in the midst of a third lockdown that began in late December to control a resurgence of the outbreak. In total, Israel has had nearly 600,000 cases and more than 4,360 deaths.”

More testing and more awareness of any little symptom required testing probably the largest driver on why younger are testing positive for covid-19 – https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2021/01/24/why-are-so-many-more-young-adults–testing-positive-for-covid-19/?sh=3a5ae98b745f

“New findings from a CDC study (conducted from March through December) indicate that young adults, 24 and younger, were more likely to test positive (RT-PCR) for Covid-19, and drive transmission, compared to the summer of 2020. But the study’s findings come with a caveat, as explained by one expert.”

“Data from the study revealed that close to 3 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 were reported in those 24 and younger. The study also found that close to 60 percent of newly diagnosed cases were seen in those 18-24 years of age. This suggests that the virus is striking younger age groups at an increased rate; in fact, the greatest incidence of new cases was seen during the final week of the study in December.”

“Anotther recent CDC study, conducted July through Sept 2020, and published in earlier this month found that U.S. counties with university in-person instruction had a 56% increase in incidence of Covid-19, by comparing the 21-day periods before and after classes began. Meanwhile, U.S counties with large colleges or universities with remote instruction had close to an 18% decrease in incidence of Covid-19. Another study published last month in Science also found that closing schools and universities reduced transmission R(t) by 38%. Limiting gatherings to less than 10 people also led to an impressive 42% reduction of transmission. This data clearly argues for instituting remote learning as a way to reduce the elevated risk for transmission with in-person college instruction, as eloquently presented on Twitter by Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist, health economist and Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, DC.”

““However, despite young children being susceptible [to infection], epidemiology does not show in-person PreK-12 to be a driver of infection,” emphasized Adalja. “Colleges with in-person learning are different and require significant testing protocols and guidance for off-campus activities to minimize the impact of COVID.”

The bottom line is that clear and explicit messaging to younger persons promoting mask wearing, physical distancing and avoiding crowded spaces as the primary strategy to contain Covid-19 is imperative until vaccines become more readily available, especially in light of the uneven rollout of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines over the past 6 weeks. The arrival of additional vaccines (Johnson and Johnson, AstraZeneca) is forthcoming in the next several weeks to months, and will be welcome as the Biden administration ramps up vaccine production using the Defense Production Act (DPA).”

I think this message from Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is weak – it’s a total cop out. The data also shows there are more successful schools and perhaps we should learn from the successful openings and applied those to others vs. close it all down. We can see it our county school data – certain counties are much more effective in managing covid transmission – what are they doing – modify ventilation? – mask wearing? Parent support? Etc….

CDC vaccine data pulled in….and what does it tell us….distribution of vaccine is not by need….if it was by need there distribution should be a function of confirmation by state…. Why Alaska the highest per capita? South Carolina at bottom?

Vaccine should be distributed by need? South Carolina top 3 confirmation per capita.

We also can learn how well states are doing disseminating the vaccine….Prisons did a great job!…..States like CA and AZ who have huge issues are doing an awful job!

Great Sunday report – US under 2K deaths no other country above 1K

CA still in the lead

No surprise LA county the leader

Good news LA is still on decline for confirmation.