Covid19mathblog.com

Pointed out very early here and also now documented that Dr. Fauci himself takes vitamin D – this should be distributed free to society particularly in the hotspots. There is no excuse for this. Another Vitamin D supported study – this time showing a reduction in advance cancer – also important note to reduce obesity as that impacts Vitamin D efficacy – lets get healthy! – https://scitechdaily.com/study-finds-vitamin-d-supplements-reduce-risk-of-developing-advanced-cancer/

“In a paper published in JAMA Network Open, the team reports that vitamin D was associated with an overall 17 percent risk reduction for advanced cancer. When the team looked at only participants with a normal body mass index (BMI), they found a 38 percent risk reduction, suggesting that body mass may influence the relationship between vitamin D and decreased risk of advanced cancer.

“These findings suggest that vitamin D may reduce the risk of developing advanced cancers,” said corresponding author Paulette Chandler, MD, MPH, a primary care physician and epidemiologist in the Brigham’s Division of Preventive Medicine. “Vitamin D is a supplement that’s readily available, cheap and has been used and studied for decades. Our findings, especially the strong risk reduction seen in individuals with normal weight, provide new information about the relationship between vitamin D and advanced cancer.”

“Of the 7,843 participants with a normal body mass index (BMI less than 25) taking vitamin D, only 58 were diagnosed with advanced cancer compared with 96 taking the placebo.

While the team’s findings on BMI could be due to chance, there is previous evidence that body mass may affect vitamin D action. Obesity and associated inflammation may decrease the effectiveness of vitamin D, possibly by reducing vitamin D receptor sensitivity or altering vitamin D signaling. In addition, randomized trials of vitamin D and type 2 diabetes have found greater benefits of vitamin D in people with normal weights and no benefit among those with obesity.

Vitamin D deficiency is common among cancer patients, with one study reporting rates of vitamin D deficiency as high as 72 percent among cancer patients. There is also evidence that higher amounts of body fat are associated with increased risk for several cancers.”

LA times self-analysis of crisis sounds like an excuse laden article to me. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-28/why-covid-19-cases-have-spread-wildly-in-l-a

There is nothing in this article in my mind that should not have been understood by now. They want to say they are so unique – its LA – that’s such a cop out – Taiwan and Japanese areas are a lot more population density with much lower buying power. One could look at Japan or Taiwan by mid year 2020 and figure an appropriate playbook. “Fatigue” “Indoor” excuses should have been understood. There was 0 possibility vaccine was going to be developed and distributed by year end – so we know its at least 9 months more of this you had to implement policies that could survive that time. It was understood early in Japan and also from the data we observed it was a viral load / ventilation issue. Why not implement standards to HVAC in commercial and industrial areas? Retrofit HVAC systems in those areas with govt. subsidies would have played a huge role in reduction. Support local businesses to create a safer environment. CO2 monitors should have been promoted and guidelines for numbers set – very cost effective. Then a society outreach in terms of understanding viral load and what people could do. Mask education and outreach – explain not perfect but does something and note when and where to use it. Open windows and fans may have increased power usage but that cost is very incremental to the cost being observed now. Comparing deaths to NYC when the county hasn’t even past peak confirmation is absurd – anything to feel better I guess….

Vaccine news – India approves 2 vaccines – https://www.24matins.uk/topnews/int/india-approves-two-covid-19-vaccines-for-emergency-use-261133

India has authorised the emergency use of two coronavirus vaccines developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University and by local pharmaceutical firm Bharat Biotech, the country’s drug regulator said Sunday.

“The… vaccines of Serum Institute (AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine) and Bharat Biotech are being approved for restricted use in emergency situations,” the Drugs Controller General of India, V.G. Somani, said at a briefing.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted that the fast-track approvals were “a decisive turning point to strengthen a spirited fight” that “accelerates the road to a healthier and Covid-free nation”.

Not much global press on the Bharat Biotech vaccine – https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/great-milestone-bharat-biotech-on-approval-for-emergency-use-of-covaxin-2347124

“Covaxin is being indigenously developed by Bharat Biotech in collaboration with the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) – National Institute of Virology (NIV).

Covaxin is a highly purified and inactivated 2 dose SARS-CoV2 vaccine, manufactured in a Vero cell manufacturing platform with an excellent safety track record of more than 300 million doses, he said.

The Phase III human clinical trials of Covaxin began mid-November targeted to be done in "26,000" volunteers across India, and this is India’s first and only Phase III efficacy study for a COVID-19 vaccine, Krishna Ella said.

It is the largest phase III efficacy trial ever conducted for any vaccine in India, he added.

Covaxin has been evaluated in approximately 1,000 subjects in Phase I and Phase II clinical trials, with promising safety and immunogenicity results, with acceptance in international peer-reviewed scientific journals, Krishna Ella said.

This indigenous, inactivated vaccine is developed and manufactured in Bharat Biotech”s BSL-3 (Bio-Safety Level 3) bio-containment facility.

The evaluation of Covaxin has resulted in several unique product characteristics including long term persistence of immune responses to multiple viral proteins, as opposed to only the spike protein, and has demonstrated broad-spectrum neutralising capability with heterologous SARS-CoV2 strains, thus potentially reducing or eliminating escape mutants, the statement said.

"It has also shown to generate memory T cell responses, for its multiple epitopes, indicating longevity and rapid antibody response to future infections. Its most critical characteristic is the demonstrated safety profile, which is significantly lower than several other vaccines with published data," it said.

The future has been permanently changed due to covid 2020 experience. Working from home and less commuting is likely the new norm – the question is more at what level. For those refusing that possibility is refusing reality. Peak oil demand in countries like the US is a high outcome as less commuting and even less traveling with virtual conferences and meetings will have their place in the future. https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20201023-coronavirus-how-will-the-pandemic-change-the-way-we-work?sf241549940=1

“Our Future Forum research of 4,700 knowledge workers found the majority never want to go back to the old way of working. Only 12% want to return to full-time office work, and 72% want a hybrid remote-office model moving forward.”

US death under 3K – 2398

Ca leads confirmation and second place in death with MI leading in deaths.

LA county leads in both death and confirmation for all US counties. MI just has a much larger death dispersion.

You can see the Michigan death dispersion

LA has crossed Cook IL for confirmed per capita at 7.7% – Death reporting in LA likely to continue to be very robust for the following weeks. Recent 3wk confirmation death rate sits at 1.5%….so the 15K daily confirmations will lead to 200+ daily deaths.