Covid19mathblog.com

Good news on vaccine variant front – https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/vaccines-are-working-shouldnt-panic-variants-rcna372

“Several new coronavirus variants have been identified in the United States in recent weeks, and scientists are grappling with whether these strains threaten the country — and, if so, how.

One thing experts agree on, though, is that the available vaccines have outperformed expectations — even when it comes to what are known as the "variants of concern."

"This virus is not invincible, and despite all these variants, the vaccines are working great," said Jeremy Kamil, an associate professor of microbiology and immunology at Louisiana State University Health Shreveport. "That is really outstanding and people should be celebrating that."”

“All three vaccines appear to offer strong protection against the U.K. variant. In early analyses, both the Moderna and the Pfizer vaccines were found to be less protective against the South African variant, although neutralizing antibodies, which can bind to viruses and block them from getting into cells, remained above protective levels for both.

Johnson & Johnson conducted trials in South Africa, where the variant first identified there is widespread, and found that its vaccine was 64 percent effective at preventing moderate to severe disease. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was also found to be 66 percent effective against the variant that was first reported in Brazil. In trials, the vaccine prevented 100 percent of hospitalizations and deaths related to Covid-19.”

“"Protection from infection and disease are two different things," Kamil said. In other words, a vaccinated person could still become infected with the coronavirus, but that infection likely wouldn’t lead to illness. "The worst case scenario is you might get sick, but you likely wouldn’t have to go to the hospital."”

With the J&J vaccine the 2 doses graph is less important. Probably need to add a category called fully vaccinated vs. 2 doses.

US death still under 2K. Brazil unfortunately above 2K. Isolating Brazil is likely an outcome if this continues this way.

Brazil certainly a lot more of concern than many others such as Germany.

Strange Missouri unconfirmed -12K netting out the unassigned county – but significant added confirmation in known counties. NY leads confirmation and CA leads death

Large adds in individual counties in MO – LA leads death

LA still in the right direction