Covid 3/19/21

Covid19mathblog.com

WHO report on origin of Covid19 coming out – https://www.livescience.com/who-says-china-wildlife-farms-may-be-source-covid-19.html

“After a months-long investigation, the World Health Organization (WHO) has found that wildlife farms in China are likely the source of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

“The wildlife farms are part of a project that the Chinese government has been promoting for 20 years to lift rural populations out of poverty and close the rural-urban divide, according to Daszak and NPR.”

“But in February 2020, China shut down those farms, likely because the Chinese government thought that they were part of the transmission pathway from bats to humans, Daszak said. The government sent out instructions to farmers about how to bury, kill or burn the animals in a way that wouldn’t spread disease, Daszak told NPR.”

Collateral damage from covid response and it’s the youth who is seeing the most negative impact from the response the very group who is least rewarded from the actions – https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/08/covid-set-to-cause-400000-surge-in-tb-deaths-as-medics-diverted

“In many countries – including South Africa, India and Indonesia – doctors and health workers have been shifted from tracking TB cases to tracing people infected with Covid-19. Equipment and budgets have also been reassigned, an investigation by the World Health Organisation (WHO) has revealed.

As a result, millions of TB diagnoses have been missed, and according to the WHO this is likely to result in 200,000 to 400,000 excess deaths from the disease this year alone, with a further million new cases occurring every year after that for the next five years”

https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/across-virtually-every-key-measure-childhood-progress-has-gone-backward-unicef-says

“As of March 2021, 13 per cent of 71 million COVID-19 infections in 107 countries (62 per cent of the total global infections) with data by age are among children and adolescents under 20 years of age.

In developing countries, child poverty is expected to increase by around 15 per cent. An additional 140 million children in these countries are also already projected to be in households living below the poverty line.

Schools for more than 168 million schoolchildren globally have been closed for almost a year. Two-thirds of countries with full or partial closures are in Latin America and the Caribbean.

At least 1 in 3 schoolchildren has been unable to access remote learning while their schools were closed.

Around 10 million additional child marriages may occur before the end of the decade, threatening years of progress in reducing the practice.

At least 1 in 7 children and young people has lived under stay-at-home policies for most of the last year, leading to feelings of anxiety, depression and isolation.

As of November 2020, an additional 6 to 7 million children under age 5 may have suffered from wasting or acute malnutrition in 2020, resulting in almost 54 million wasted children, a 14 per cent rise that could translate into more than 10,000 additional child deaths per month – mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. With a 40 per cent decline in nutrition services for children and women, many other nutrition outcomes can worsen.

As of November 2020, more than 94 million people were at risk of missing vaccines due to paused measles campaigns in 26 countries.

As of November 2020, in 59 countries with available data, refugees and asylum seekers are unable to access COVID-19-related social protection support due to border closures and rising xenophobia and exclusion.

Around 3 billion people worldwide lack basic handwashing facilities with soap and water at home. In the least developed countries, three quarters of people, more than two-thirds of schools and a quarter of health care facilities lack the basic hygiene services needed to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. On average 700 children under-five die every day from diseases caused by the lack of water, sanitation and hygiene.”

Vaccine benefit being passed to newborn – https://abc7ny.com/florida-baby-boca-raton-covid-antibodies-newborn/10421074/

“A woman in Florida is believed to be the first to give birth to a baby with COVID antibodies.

The Boca Raton woman received a single dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine. Three weeks later, doctors say she gave birth to a healthy baby girl.

They say her cord blood had antibodies against COVID.

Doctors hope this leads to further studies of maternal COVID vaccinations to protect babies as well.”

Brazil continues to lead both confirmation and deaths US under 2K

There is still much chatter about 3rd wave in Europe – not seen in Germany or UK yet. But Brazil is going parabolic

NY leads in confirmation – Kentucky leads death – likely data revision

Confirmation limits likely need to be lowered in the graph – as the typical big three county showing up – Miami-Dade, Cook, and LA. Jefferson leads LA but likely not for long as this is likely a reclassify.

US death still above normal range but getting close to coming back to normal that is 2014-2019 avg.

You can see dispersion throughout KY indicating a reclassification.

Europe is showing an increase but its still not a full blown ramp as compared to S. America driven by Brazil. US continues to decline