Covid19mathblog.com
Bad news first – less than a year those who got sick from covid are getting infected again from a new variant – another sign of endemic ☹ – https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html
“Scientists have also had their eye on a third concerning variant that arose in Brazil, called P.1. Research had been slower on P.1 since its discovery in late December, leaving scientists unsure of just how much to worry about it.”
“Now three studies offer a sobering history of P.1’s meteoric rise in the Amazonian city of Manaus. It most likely arose there in November and then fueled a record-breaking spike of coronavirus cases. It came to dominate the city partly because of an increased contagiousness, the research found. But it also gained the ability to infect some people who had immunity from previous bouts of Covid-19. And laboratory experiments suggest that P.1 could weaken the protective effect of a Chinese vaccine now in use in Brazil.”
“P.1 is now spreading across the rest of Brazil and has been found in 24 other countries. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recorded six cases in five states: Alaska, Florida, Maryland, Minnesota and Oklahoma.”
Besides endemic – another reason to get healthy is the vaccines are not effective for obese patients – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.24.21251664v1.full.pdf
“Findings: 248 HWCs were analysed, 158 women (63.7%) and 90 men (36.3%). After the second dose of
BNT162b2 vaccine, 99.5% of participants developed a humoral immune response.
The geometric mean concentration of antibodies among the vaccinated subjects after booster dose (285.9
AU/mL 95% CI: 249.5-327.7); was higher than that of human convalescent sera (39.4 AU/mL, 95% CI:
33.1-46.9), with p<0.0001. The antibody titre was found to be higher in young and female participants. A
strong correlation of BMI classes with antibody titres was noticed: humoral response was more efficient in
the group with under- and normal-weight vs the group with pre- and obesity participants (p<0.0001 at T1).
Interpretation: These findings imply that females, lean and young people have an increased capacity to
mount humoral immune responses compared to males, overweight and the older population. Although
further studies are needed, this data may have important implications for the development of vaccination
strategies for COVID-19, particularly in obese people”
Logical but also likely highly abusive to create a digital pass for those with vaccine and without – what about creating pass for those very healthy and those not? – https://www.timesofisrael.com/following-israel-eu-to-propose-vaccine-green-pass/
“The European Commission will propose rules for an EU vaccine “green pass” this month, as the bloc prepares to ramp up its Covid-19 immunization drive, commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said Monday.
“We’ll present this month a legislative proposal for a Digital Green Pass,” she tweeted, explaining it would aim to provide proof both of vaccination and of Covid test results. The pass would allow people to gradually “move safely in the European Union or abroad — for work or tourism,” she said.”
If getting covid doesn’t help BUT only vaccine works then US ½ as effective as getting this covid in control. US deaths below 2K
TX leading confirmation – likely Ice storm limited ventilation. CA still leading deaths
New first to see Williamson County TX lead confirmation – perhaps true up with data due to ice storm. Nueces TX also leads death from covid – LA is actually 6th place
Confirmations are certainly being dispersed through the country – perhap variants are making their way through the US
LA deaths still need to come down with confirmation else will continue to show very high fatality rates.
