Covid 3/24/21 | COVID 19 Information Page

Covid19mathblog.com

Pandemic not endemic – pharma can do only so much at so much cost – its time to get healthy – IF serious certain foods should be banned/restricted this cost is much less than closing society and funding perpetual vaccine development – https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-24/when-will-covid-end-we-must-start-planning-for-a-permanent-pandemic

“Most epidemics disappear once populations achieve herd immunity and the pathogen has too few vulnerable bodies available as hosts for its self-propagation. This herd protection comes about through the combination of natural immunity in people who’ve recovered from infection and vaccination of the remaining population.

In the case of SARS-CoV-2, however, recent developments suggest that we may never achieve herd immunity. Even the U.S., which leads most other countries in vaccinations and already had large outbreaks, won’t get there. That’s the upshot of an analysis by Christopher Murray at the University of Washington and Peter Piot at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

The main reason is the ongoing emergence of new variants that behave almost like new viruses. A clinical vaccine trial in South Africa showed that people in the placebo group who had previously been infected with one strain had no immunity against its mutated descendant and became reinfected. There are similar reports from parts of Brazil that had massive outbreaks and subsequently suffered renewed epidemics.”

Brazil was detected as an issue for awhile here – now finally getting some press perhaps too late as noted above variants make it impossible to stop – https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/03/23/980391847/brazil-is-looking-like-the-worst-place-on-earth-for-covid-19

“The country is now widely viewed as the epicenter of the pandemic, with the highest number of daily deaths of any nation. On Tuesday, that number topped 3,000 for the first time, with 3,251 deaths recorded.

And this week, Brazil’s registered COVID-19 deaths will rise above 300,000 — a toll exceeded only by the United States. Ribeiro bleakly remarks that this number is about the same as the population of her city.”

“So far, three COVID-19 vaccines have been authorized by Brazil’s health regulators: – AstraZeneca, Coronavac and Pfizer. Fewer than 7% of Brazilians have had one dose.”

“With the virus out of control, he believes Brazil is a breeding ground for more variants, that could prove even more lethal and spread to other countries.

"The virus is circulating so widely in Brazil that it is possible, and I would say likely, that new variants will appear in the near future. We need to stop that urgently," he said.

Hallal wants an international task force, comprised of governments, health organizations and pharmaceutical companies, to get far more vaccines to Brazil as soon as possible. If not, "global efforts to control COVID-19 will be jeopardized", he says.”

“"We need vaccines now! We have to intercept the transmission of this virus in the community. We already have four variants . . . responsible for most of the cases in seven states of Brazil. This is [a] very, very worrying fact."

Dr. Hallal puts this in starker terms: "If we do not have enough vaccines in the next 30 to 45 days, the situation will be terrible — not only for Brazil, but for the rest of the world."”

I still find it interesting discussion of shutting down Europe. The data perhaps shows a potential for a third wave buts its not there. The weather plus the vaccine distribution SHOULD put Europe in a better spot than the last wave. Brazil as noted in the graph below is in another league – that’s serious world global issue – unless planning to lockdown Brazil which is a major exporter of various commodities.