Covid19mathblog.com
Vaccine real life study shows effectiveness 90%- also second dose only adds 10% more –https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm7013e3_w
“Prospective cohorts of 3,950 health care personnel, first responders, and other essential and frontline workers completed weekly SARS-CoV-2 testing for 13 consecutive weeks. Under real-world conditions, mRNA vaccine effectiveness of full immunization (≥14 days after second dose) was 90% against SARS-CoV-2 infections regardless of symptom status; vaccine effectiveness of partial immunization (≥14 days after first dose but before second dose) was 80%.”
WHO report pointing to wildlife farms not sea market as source – https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/03/29/982272319/who-report-wildlife-farms-not-market-likely-source-of-coronavirus-pandemic?
“NPR has obtained an early copy. According to the report, data suggests that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was not the original source of the outbreak.
In addition, the report noted that "introduction through a laboratory incident" — a leak from the lab in Wuhan — "was considered to be an extremely unlikely pathway."
The report further suggests that animals in livestock farms in southeast Asia could be "linked to early human cases" and that further study on these farms is needed.
In an exclusive interview with NPR last week, Peter Daszak, a disease ecologist who was part of the investigative team that did two weeks of research in China, noted that wildlife farms supply vendors at the Wuhan market, which early had been identified as a possible starting point of the pandemic.”
IF there is another wave its our failure to recognize the simple plain truth that we spend enormous times indoor and we need to reduce viral loads in those environments. There are mechanical solutions and detection systems to understand you may not be in safe environment. CO2 sensors can be purchased for under 100 on amazon. One can modify HVAC to introduce more fresh air. This article highlights levels to watch for and shows the obvious – https://english.elpais.com/usa/2021-03-29/how-to-avoid-coronavirus-infection-in-indoor-spaces-dont-breathe-other-peoples-air.html
“During this pandemic, it has been shown that poorly ventilated buildings are the most dangerous environments of all because particles containing the virus can linger in the air until someone breathes them in. And although we do not have a device that can show these particles, we can measure the air quality and CO₂ concentration using a meter. The higher the concentration of CO₂, which is exhaled when we breathe, the worse the room’s ventilation. A simple measurement allows us to know if the room is loaded with air exhaled by other people or if it is well ventilated, thereby drastically reducing the risk of infection.”
“The air we breathe outside contains an average of 412 parts-per-million (ppm) of CO2. If we observe this figure on a meter, the air has not been exhaled by anyone.”
“1000 ppm WHO limit for healthy air quality”
US under 1K. Brazil continues to lead deaths
Brazil confirmation is starting to slow…so that’s a good sign – unfortunately death is still exponential.
Michigan leads confirm followed by NY. NY leads death followed by CA
Dispersion of confirmation is alarming.
Even though MI and NY are relatively closed they are still registering high confirmations – clearly policy is not leading to results.
Last 30 days confirmation view by county in US. Perhaps NY opening up restaurants without guidelines for ventilation/CO2 measure may have led to increased confirmation.
