Covid 4/10/21 | COVID 19 Information Page

Covid19mathblog.com

As we have been saying since May of last year (https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/05/covid-5-21-20/ ) – better late than never but we sure bought and cleaned surfaces way too much for over a year. Also closed unnecessary places. I suspects young kids did not build their natural immunity and will likely suffer in the long run as we got too clean. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/health/coronavirus-hygiene-cleaning-surfaces.html

“This week, the C.D.C. acknowledged what scientists have been saying for months: The risk of catching the coronavirus from surfaces is low.”

“Americans responded in kind, wiping down groceries, quarantining mail and clearing drugstore shelves of Clorox wipes. Facebook closed two of its offices for a “deep cleaning.” New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority began disinfecting subway cars every night.

But the era of “hygiene theater” may have come to an unofficial end this week, when the C.D.C. updated its surface cleaning guidelines and noted that the risk of contracting the virus from touching a contaminated surface was less than 1 in 10,000.”

““There’s really no evidence that anyone has ever gotten Covid-19 by touching a contaminated surface.””

““The scientific basis for all this concern about surfaces is very slim — slim to none,” said Emanuel Goldman, a microbiologist at Rutgers University, who wrote last summer that the risk of surface transmission had been overblown. “This is a virus you get by breathing. It’s not a virus you get by touching.””

““This should be the end of deep cleaning,” Dr. Allen said, noting that the misplaced focus on surfaces has had real costs. “It has led to closed playgrounds, it has led to taking nets off basketball courts, it has led to quarantining books in the library. It has led to entire missed school days for deep cleaning. It has led to not being able to share a pencil. So that’s all that hygiene theater, and it’s a direct result of not properly classifying surface transmission as low risk.””

Awful thing the article failed to note solutions to the way it is being transmitted via air. Where is the CO2 guideline? Why is that so hard to understand? CO2 is produce by people via breathing. IF well ventilated CO2 levels will be equivalent to ambient outdoors (400-600ppm) – IF it doubles that than you know the ventilation is limited in the facility you are in and you are at risk IF anyone is infected in the room. CO2 monitors are cheap. HVAC systems can be modified to push more fresh air. SO simple SO obvious…..

UK headed towards herd immunity? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-10/u-k-races-toward-elusive-milestone-in-quest-to-control-covid?

“UCL model suggests some 75% of U.K. population has antibodies”

“According to researchers at University College London, that’s when so-called herd immunity could be achieved in the U.K. Almost three-quarters of the population will have antibodies against the virus, either through vaccination or past infection, they estimate.

Britain has already seen a plunge in new cases and deaths, and the government will relax restrictions, including on outdoor dining, on Monday. Those developments have fueled hopes that the nation will soon shake off its Covid shackles.”

“Many other scientists think the U.K. is much further from herd immunity than UCL’s model suggests. It’s come under fire from some who say it overestimates the strength of vaccines and doesn’t adequately account for waning immunity and new virus variants. No more than 40% of the country has protection from Covid, according to estimates by Imperial College London.”

“Almost half of Britons have received at least one vaccine dose, compared with just 14% in the European Union, according to Bloomberg’s Vaccine Tracker. Still, after becoming an epicenter of a fresh Covid surge, there are tentative signs that Western Europe is turning the corner.”

“Shots may be needed for years to come, especially if the virus continues to mutate and circulates at lower levels, much like the flu.

“Longer-term, it’s going to be more like an epidemic where there are sometimes outbreaks and you’ll need to manage that,” said Matt Linley, a senior analyst at Airfinity.”

It is a fact UK is plummeting particularly when we look at other countries in Europe e.g. France Still big issues seen in India and Brazil as left unconstrained variants will be produced.