Covid19mathblog.com

Lets look back at the data and see if we can understand anything. Would opening up society with cautious warning to the public (e.g. Sweden, S. Korea) fare better than draconian/authoritarian quarantine (UK, Germany)? Unfortunately its not that clear cut given every country had differences of degree rules and the overall health of society certainly matters the most to the outcome.

A popular comparison is Sweden vs. Germany – but to be fair Sweden is less population density, younger, and lower BMI so they SHOULD fare better. The one thing that would make a better clear cut example of whether it was worth it would be to have a psychology question of happiness – perhaps suicide metric- to balance the question of whether quarantine is the right approach. People always want to talk about GDP – but seriously here is a case where money is not everything.

Here are a few key things I see from the data – as expected confirmation per capita SHOULD be higher for an open society vs. quarantine – Sweden saw one of the highest confirmation per capita at 8.5% – the US toped at 9.4%. – restrictive countries such as Germany had 50%+ less confirmation- however THIS did not translate to deaths – the death per capita did not get a 50% reduction – only 30% less. This indicates – IF DEATH major metric – closing up society did not benefit the many who sacrificed.

Countries who shut down still saw significant deaths e.g. UK. Asian countries amazingly saw limited issues. Perhaps we can say China is lying but doubt S. Korea, Thailand and Japan would be that far off. Western society lifestyle needs to be questioned IF we care to reduce the death impact of covid.

IF we can be all on an island and become isolated perhaps we can live with a high BMI as see in New Zealand.

Brazil and India is a global problem

Good thing India has some immunity/health – compared to Brazil

3rd wave driven by Brazil

US needs to help MI

LA back to leading deaths but it’s a small number relative to the peak.