Covid 4/15/21 | COVID 19 Information Page

Covid19mathblog.com

Wow better late than never message – needed a “study” to know what common sense should tell you – but the details are interesting in the study…. https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2021/04/07/bjsports-2021-104080

“We identified 48 440 adult patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis from 1 January 2020 to 21 October 2020, with at least three exercise vital sign measurements from 19 March 2018 to 18 March 2020. We linked each patient’s self-reported physical activity category (consistently inactive=0–10 min/week, some activity=11–149 min/week, consistently meeting guidelines=150+ min/week) to the risk of hospitalisation, ICU admission and death after COVID-19 diagnosis. We conducted multivariable logistic regression controlling for demographics and known risk factors to assess whether inactivity was associated with COVID-19 outcomes.

Results Patients with COVID-19 who were consistently inactive had a greater risk of hospitalisation (OR 2.26; 95% CI 1.81 to 2.83), admission to the ICU (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.18 to 2.55) and death (OR 2.49; 95% CI 1.33 to 4.67) due to COVID-19 than patients who were consistently meeting physical activity guidelines. Patients who were consistently inactive also had a greater risk of hospitalisation (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.32), admission to the ICU (OR 1.10; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.29) and death (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.60) due to COVID-19 than patients who were doing some physical activity.

Conclusions Consistently meeting physical activity guidelines was strongly associated with a reduced risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes among infected adults. We recommend efforts to promote physical activity be prioritised by public health agencies and incorporated into routine medical care.”

“The population had a mean age of 47.5 years (SD 17.0), with a median of 47 years (IQR 33.0, 60.0) and included 61.9% females (table 1). 6.4% were consistently meeting PA guidelines and 14.4% were consistently inactive, with the remainder falling in the some activity category. White patients were most likely to consistently meet PA guidelines (9.4%), followed by Asian patients (7.3%), Hispanic patients (5.5%) and African-American patients (4.6%). The mean BMI was 31.2 (SD 7.07). 51.4% of the study cohort had no comorbidities while 17.4% had only one, and 31.3% had two or more. The percentage of those who were consistently meeting PA guidelines was lower among those with chronic diseases (including obesity) and those who smoked.”

“This study was conducted at Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), which is an integrated healthcare system that serves approximately 4.7 million residents in Southern California at 15 medical centres.”

The figure below represents “Adjusted risk factors for hospitalisation in patients with COVID-19. BMI, body mass index; ED, emergency department.”

Interesting to see Asian race is the worse – My hypothesis perhaps has to do with living in larger families in CA with small spaces causes higher viral loads which lead to hospitalization.

Being INACTIVE – you might as well have had cancer and be 60 yr old! – do we care about people covid/hospitalization/death? We should use phone tracking to see if each and everyone does an activity? I think it would be interesting to put vaccinations to non-vaccination on this table. Also understand the cost impact/benefits of “forcing” exercise.

Also what if we compound BMI and Activity – would this create a reduced odd equal to vaccination – my hypothesis it would or be very close.

There are only a few days I skip swimming even in the 50 degree water days – and here is a study that shows chlorinated pool water eliminates covid – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9465679/amp/Health-Swimming-pool-water-inactivate-COVID-19-virus-just-30-SECONDS-study-finds.html?

“London-based experts studied how chlorinated pool water affects SARS-CoV-2

They concluded the risk of transmission during swimming is ‘incredibly’ low

Swim England, Water Babies and the Royal Life Saving Society aided the study”

“Chlorinated swimming pool water can inactivate the virus that causes COVID-19 in just 30 seconds, a study found as indoor pools re-open across England this week.

Virologists from Imperial College London studied the impact of varying concentrations of chlorine in water on the SARS-CoV-2 virus.”

Antivaccine for the youth – https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/304124

“93 doctors have signed a joint letter of protest calling to refrain from administering Covid-19 vaccines to children.

In a letter, the contents of which reached Channel 12, submitted this morning, the doctors explained that "There is no room to vaccinate children at this time," and based the call on "the following values – the value of caution, the value of humility", as well as understanding that "haste is from the devil." They also cited "the recognition that we do not understand everything about the virus and the vaccine against it," and "the first commandment of medicine – ‘First do not harm.’"

The letter includes the signatures of Dr. Amir Shachar, director of the emergency room at Laniado Hospital, Dr. Yoav Yehezkeli, an expert in internal medicine and a lecturer at Tel Aviv University, and Dr. Avi Mizrahi, director of the intensive care unit at Kaplan Hospital.”

“They noted that "the increasingly prevalent opinion within the scientific community is that the vaccine cannot lead to herd immunity, therefore there is currently no ‘altruistic’ justification for vaccinating children to protect at-risk populations."”

“"We believe that not even a handful of children should be endangered through mass vaccination against a disease that is not dangerous to them," they wrote. "Furthermore, it cannot be ruled out that the vaccine will have long-term adverse effects that have not yet been discovered at this time, including on growth, reproductive system or fertility. Children should be allowed a quick return to routine; the many tests and broad isolation cycles should be stopped, and no separation between the vaccinated and unvaccinated should be created in the public sphere. Vaccination of at-risk populations should be allowed, and under the almost complete vaccination of this population – it is possible to return to full routine (with periodic adjustments) even in the presence of COVID-19 virus."”

India super spreader event? https://www.cityam.com/millions-bathe-together-in-india-despite-200000-new-covid-cases-a-day/

“This week, around three million Hindus have started to come together in the north Indian city of Haridwar, celebrating an auspicious bathing day in the Ganges river.

There are no restrictions at the week-long event, which started on Monday and takes place every 12 years, and officials acknowledged to local media it was impossible for attendees to maintain social distancing.”

It is really bad in India – deaths are starting to rise now. The positive is that Brazil is flattening out.