Covid 4/16/21

Covid19mathblog.com

Clotting is the news du jour – well this clotting issue should be known for adenovirus – note 2006 vintage https://ashpublications.org/blood/article/109/7/2832/125650/Adenovirus-induced-thrombocytopenia-the-role-of

Also adenovirus vaccine is WELL established as with most things because of the military – interestingly they used a pill not an injection – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7151885/

“The routine administration of the Ad4 and Ad7 vaccines, which began in 1971, resulted in an extremely efficacious, cost-effective, and safe immunization program.19, 336, 337, 338 Initially, the vaccines were administered only during the high-risk winter months. The occurrence of spring and fall outbreaks prompted a modification of the program to administration of the vaccines year-round.19 From 1971 to 1999, except for a period in the 1970s when ineffective vaccines thought to be contaminated with solvent were used,15 there has never been a reported outbreak of ARD caused by Ad4 or Ad7 in U.S. military units that received the vaccines.”

“The excess morbidity caused by ARD and associated costs are of significant concern to the U.S. military. A number of cost-to-benefit analyses have been performed each showing significant benefit in using the vaccines.336, 337, 338 Using an estimated cost for receipt of both vaccines at $150 and using the vaccines year-round in approximately 200,000 trainees per year, Radin and colleagues,303 estimated the U.S. Department of Defense would prevent approximately 6000 to 13,000 clinical adenovirus cases and 1100 to 2700 hospitalizations per year, saving the U.S. government approximately $20 million per year in training and medical costs.”

Using adenovirus as carrier has also been very well established – 2013 paper – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4507798/

“Adenovirus vectors are the most commonly employed vector for cancer gene therapy. They are also used for gene therapy and as vaccines to express foreign antigens. Adenovirus vectors can be replication-defective; certain essential viral genes are deleted and replaced by a cassette that expresses a foreign therapeutic gene. Such vectors are used for gene therapy, as vaccines, and for cancer therapy”

This halting is completely BS in my mind given the numbers – this move is big boost to mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna over AstraZenaca and J&J). At least in this sense the treatment is better than without by multiples as highlighted in this article – https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/04/study-covid-much-more-likely-vaccines-cause-blood-clots

“COVID-19—the actual disease—poses 8 to 10 times the threat of blood clots in the brain than do coronavirus vaccines, a large, non–peer-reviewed study led by University of Oxford researchers finds.”

CVT is happening for mRNA vaccines too! AND at a higher rate! –

“The risk of CVT was 8 to 10 times higher in the 513,284 patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis than in the 489,871 vaccinees and 100 times greater than in the general population. There were only two cases of CVT in the vaccine population, one after vaccination with the Pfizer vaccine and one after receipt of an undetermined mRNA vaccine. Patients younger than 30 years accounted for 30% of coronavirus-related CVT. The rate in the 172,742 flu patients was 0 per 1 million.”

“"The researchers are not claiming that vaccines do not increase the risk at all compared to the risk in people who have not been vaccinated and have also not had COVID-19—but they say the CVT risk in people who have had COVID-19 is about 100 times the risk in the general population," he said. "I do think this puts things into context."”

In the mRNA case we have 2/489,871=0.0004% …..in the recent J&J we have 6/7,000,000=0.00009%…..REALLY?

Ever feel like you get sold something only having to buy more – https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfizer-ceo-says-third-covid-vaccine-dose-likely-needed-within-12-months.html

“Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said people will “likely” need a third dose of a Covid-19 vaccine within 12 months of getting fully vaccinated.

He also said it’s possible people will need to get vaccinated against the coronavirus annually.”

At what point do you chance it and not vaccinate because treatment options are plenty and effective and the odds of being confirmed is falling?

Treatment options growing – https://www.showbiz411.com/2021/04/15/exclusive-breakthrough-covid-19-red-light-treatment-in-canada-kills-coronavirus-in-nasal-passages-could-have-major-impact-on-entertainment-industry

“Now a clinic in Toronto is treating patients with red light photodynamic therapy that’s having excellent results successfully converting individuals who have tested COVID-19 positive to COVID-19 negative in the the front of the nasal passages.

Ondine Biomedical’s Steriwave treatment is used in the nose, basically, to eradicate COVID-19. It’s not a nasal spray. It’s the use of a red light on nasal passages. It takes a few minutes and is relatively inexpensive. You just sit in a chair, as you would for a COVID-`19 test. From pictures it looks like you’re holding thin fiber cables in each nostril. The light is emitted in the nose.

Their own description: “The technology uses red light—which is safe for human tissues, unlike UV light—to activate a special light-sensitive liquid (called a photosensitizer) that is naturally attracted to germs. The activated photosensitizer destroys the germs physically within moments. This reaction is so quick that germs have no way to resist or adapt. As soon as the light turns off the reaction stops.””

Chile was noted as the most per capita vaccinated in S. America

However they are also now the most confirmed per capita in S. America

Another 200K+ day of confirmation for India. Brazil death still up there over 3.5K

MI leads both categories for the US

It has been cold in MI and IL which could be causing this issue for them. Avg state temp below 50F

Wayne MI and Cook IL showing up in both categories