Covid 4/20/21

Covid19mathblog.com

Limiting travel seems to be the news of choice – https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-will-boost-do-not-travel-advisories-80-world-2021-04-19/

“The U.S. State Department said on Monday it will boost its "Do Not Travel" guidance to about 80% of countries worldwide, citing "unprecedented risk to travelers" from the COVID-19 pandemic.

"This update will result in a significant increase in the number of countries at Level 4: Do Not Travel, to approximately 80% of countries worldwide," the department said in a statement.”

I wonder if the bailout for the airlines comes with some following of the science? I know every time I have flown it has been packed – no spare seats for the last few months – https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7016e1.htm?s_cid=mm7016e1_w

“Based on laboratory modeling of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 on single-aisle and twin-aisle aircraft, exposures in scenarios in which the middle seat was vacant were reduced by 23% to 57%, compared with full aircraft occupancy, depending upon the model.”

“Physical distancing of airplane passengers, including through policies such as middle seat vacancy, could provide additional reductions in risk for exposure to SARS-CoV-2 on aircraft.”

It is quite ironic how they tell everyone to stay apart but once we get into the airplane its packed. BTW CO2 sensor in IAH stayed below 1000ppm they are doing a great job in ventilation.

This is an informative graph from the economist showing age and risk for both female and male and the additional risk for 1 type of comorbidity. Age the biggest driver. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/13/our-covid-19-model-estimates-odds-of-hospitalisation-and-death

In theory if society followed a risk/reward profile – females SHOULD be less vaccinated than male given risk for females are less than males.

Brazil confirmations are slowing – as they are reaching the 6-10% range of confirmation per capita seen in well tested countries. India has a far ways to go at only 1.1% confirmed per capita.

Japan is the lowest on this list for 7 Day MA confirmation per capita along with UK – yet there are rumors they might be shutting down.

MI needs help – they are becoming the epicenter for the US

Bexar TX (San Antonio) tops the confirmation with Wayne MI second

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