Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine news shows Sputnik V likely going to be used worldwide. https://theconversation.com/russian-covid-vaccine-why-more-and-more-countries-are-turning-to-sputnik-v-159158

“While the initial reception of Sputnik V was critical, in February 2021, preliminary results of the phase 3 trials were reported with a 91.6% efficacy rate – the percentage reduction of disease in a vaccinated group of people compared to an unvaccinated group under trial conditions.

The scientific results were clear. A commentary published in the Lancet concluded: “Another vaccine can now join the fight to reduce the incidence of COVID-19.””

“Sputnik V uses a viral-vector platform – which uses a harmless virus to introduce genetic material from the virus that causes COVID to your immune system – like the Oxford/AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines do. It was developed by the Gamaleya National Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, which has also been involved in developing vaccines for Ebola and Mers.

Sputnik V has two key advantages that make its distribution easier: it is among the cheapest COVID-19 vaccines and it can be transported easily. At US$10 (£7) a dose – the same as Johnson & Johnson – Sputnik V is only beaten on cost by the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, which comes in at US$4 a dose. This means Sputnik V is more easily accessible for many countries struggling with the cost of vaccinating their population.”

For perspective Moderna $15 Pfizer ~$20 but 2X(two dose required)….so then when you look at J&J, Sputnik V, and Astrzeneca – the math does not work out for Moderna and Pfizer given their efficacy are nowhere near 2X-4X? Perhaps a perfect reason to find fault with these “old” fashion vaccine.

Vaccine studies show interesting results too bad did not compare J&J and Astrazenecaq12 q1 – https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210421/Antibody-response-induced-by-mRNA-vaccination-differs-from-natural-SARS-CoV-2-infection.aspx

“Researchers tested the antibodies elicited from mRNA vaccination and compared them to those from natural SARS-CoV-2 infection. They found the vaccine did not have antibodies to the virus nucleocapsid protein but had potent RBD antibodies.”

“vaccination induces a more robust antibody response, and even people who have been previously infected may benefit from the vaccine.”

Good news on vaccine effectiveness overtime – https://abc7chicago.com/covid-booster-shot-moderna-pfizer-vaccine/10531053/

“Doctor says there’s ‘good evidence’ COVID-19 booster shots may not be necessary”

“Aside from the promising trial data, Gandhi says all three COVID-19 vaccines are also producing a high level of T cell immunity, which is effectively fighting variants.

"I’m very hopeful that we won’t need these booster vaccines, but if we do, the technology will make this very easy for us to get them in the future if we have outbreaks pop up," she said.”

Bad news which I have started hearing about this side effect more often – interesting all female again – starting to shift the risk/reward profile more to less female taking the vaccination – https://academic.oup.com/rheumatology/advance-article/doi/10.1093/rheumatology/keab345/6225015?searchresult=1

“Herpes zoster following BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccination in patients with autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases”

“The prevalence of HZ was 1.2% (n = 6) in patients with AIIRD compared with none in controls. Six female patients aged 49 ± 11 years with stable AIIRD: rheumatoid arthritis (n = 4), Sjogren’s syndrome (n = 1), and undifferentiated connective disease (n = 1), developed the first in a lifetime event of HZ within a short time after the first vaccine dose in 5 cases and after the second vaccine dose in one case. In the majority of cases, HZ infection was mild, except a case of HZ ophthalmicus, without corneal involvement, in RA patient treated with tofacitinib. There were no cases of disseminated HZ disease or postherpetic neuralgia. All but one patient received antiviral treatment with a resolution of HZ-related symptoms up to 6 weeks. Five patients completed the second vaccine dose without other adverse effects.”

Not sure why in the world this is happening given the data presented with age hospitalization and deaths….why what is the reward?- https://www.insideedition.com/children-participate-in-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-trial-66366

“About 5,000 children are participating in a Pfizer trial involving kids ages 2 to 5.

Children in the U.S., some only months old, are participating in the COVID-19 vaccine trials currently underway. “

India flight restriction very likely – as noted I suspect will see a rise of 6X to get to confirmation per capita to at least 6% https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/covid-sick-people-arrive-in-b-c-from-india-as-trudeau-ponders-restriction

“COVID-infected people arrive in B.C. from India as Trudeau ponders flight restriction

“We are continuing to look at more and I have asked our officials to look carefully at, for example, what the U.K. has done very recently on suspending flights from India,” says prime minister”

Many will start taking credit for reduction of covid including the vaccinations – but in reality it’s the weather. This has always been the reason May was a projected end to covid in the US. Note outliers in chart are likely data revisions not reality. Clearly shows the cold is your enemy- hence colds are colds. In hot humid climates the heat is not your friend…which ultimately always leads to our conclusion it has and always will be about ventilation!

May enough temps high enough but low enough to have open windows.

Brazil and India….ugh….not sure why media continues to present global numbers – they really mean nothing when distribution is a majority in a few countries

FL leads confirmation CA leads death

Miami-Dade leads all counties in confirmation.