Covid19mathblog.com

How about killing the virus vs having an immune response kill it – https://www.freethink.com/health/coronavirus-transmission-2

“Using CRISPR, Australian researchers have prevented a coronavirus infection from spreading in human cells in the lab. They’re now looking for a way to develop the treatment into an oral drug that could halt coronavirus transmission in people — and potentially stop other viruses as well.”

“CRISPR is a gene editing tool that originally evolved in bacteria as an antivirus system, for searching out viral genes and destroying them.

In a newly published study, Australian scientists demonstrate how they programmed a CRISPR system to bind to and degrade specific parts of the coronavirus’ genome, blocking transmission between human cells.

“Once the virus is recognized, the CRISPR enzyme is activated and chops up the virus,” Lewin said. “We targeted several parts of the virus — parts that are very stable and don’t change and parts that are highly changeable — and all worked very well in chopping up the virus.””

Delta information – https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/delta-variant-everything-you-need?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&utm_source=twitter

What was missing was how they knew the amount of Delta so precisely – its not precise but likely ballpark. The only WAY to know variant is genome sequencing – when you get your covid test PCR or antigen – they cannot know the variant. Do they get permission to run genome sequence or just do it when they want? Does the patient ever get informed? https://www.wmtw.com/article/experts-answer-whether-covid-19-tests-can-detect-specific-variants/37051361

“Erich Fogg, who oversees the testing site at York Hospital, said COVID-19 tests are only looking out for the presence of the virus.

"All the PCR test will tell you is whether you test positive for COVID-19, but it doesn’t specify. It is not sophisticated enough to tell you specific variants of the virus," Fogg said. PCR tests use the genetic material contained in the COVID-19 virus to identify If someone is positive, regardless of the mutation or variant.”

“"Keep in mind, there are thousands of variants of COVID-19 at this point, that the far majority don’t change the behavior of the virus," Fogg said.

To determine if a positive COVID-19 test sample is a variant of the virus, it must undergo genomic sequencing, which helps monitor changes to the virus over time.”

“Earlier this week, MaineHealth reported that additional testing on 49 positive COVID-19 samples from patients found that 18 were the delta variant.

MaineHealth Chief Health Improvement Officer Dr. Dora Anne Mills said the additional testing is expensive and was done for epidemiological purposes. She said the samples will undergo further genomic testing.

“We just can’t go in and say, ‘Can I have a delta test?’ It is really just testing you for COVID. That is the important thing, and the treatment doesn’t matter if you have COVID or the delta variant of COVID,” Mills said.”

To be vaccinated or naturally get covid – finally an analysis of the two paths to future immunity as we speak – https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/309762?fbclid=IwAR10LYZviX9Lpf5MgzP-y6Hit2ZTXM8wrGy4IPc-ikzHfEfSQhgey4V85Ig

“More than 7,700 new cases of the virus have been detected during the most recent wave starting in May, but just 72 of the confirmed cases were reported in people who were known to have been infected previously – that is, less than 1% of the new cases.”

Roughly 40% of new cases – or more than 3,000 patients – involved people who had been infected despite being vaccinated. With a total of 835,792 Israelis known to have recovered from the virus, the 72 instances of reinfection amount to 0.0086% of people who were already infected with COVID.

By contrast, Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection, with over 3,000 of the 5,193,499, or 0.0578%, of Israelis who were vaccinated getting infected in the latest wave.”

“…some saying the data proves the higher level of immunity provided by natural infection versus vaccination, while others remained unconvinced.”

Could Sweden have been right all along?

Sydney Australia what are we targeting? Any mental health concerns? https://twitter.com/LHatesYouALot/status/1417118833865854978?s=19

Back to J&J bashing while concluding to take the competitors vaccine as a remedy – https://www.post-gazette.com/news/nation/2021/07/20/One-Dose-of-J-amp-J-Vaccine-Is-Ineffective-Against-Delta-Study-Suggests/stories/202107200188

“The coronavirus vaccine made by Johnson & Johnson is much less effective against the delta and lambda variants than against the original virus, according to a new study posted online Tuesday.

The findings add to evidence that the 13 million people inoculated with the J&J vaccine may need to receive a second dose — ideally of one of the mRNA vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna, the authors said. But the conclusions are at odds with those from smaller studies published by Johnson & Johnson earlier this month suggesting that a single dose of the vaccine is effective against the variant even eight months after inoculation.”

On the conspiracy front lab leak still gaining momentum. Latest Fauci vs. Rand Paul became divisive https://twitter.com/feeonline/status/1417583818882551808?s=19 – I don’t think they like each other. Nonetheless there is an admittance of Funding the LARGEST virology lab in the world – hard disclaimer from Fauci: Obviously not on any projects to do with the potential to create covid. HOWEVER capital allocation doesn’t quite work that way – if you fund a pot and a pot allocates your money to something doesn’t mean you didn’t have a hand in enabling the other experiments. My quest to answer can it really just be a coincidence that it started in Wuhan led me to the following facts– is Jon Stewart perhaps right (https://youtu.be/sSfejgwbDQ8) Well it turns out there are ONLY 59 bsl4 labs in the world with Wuhan being the largest at this time. There are only 3 in China. They have 687 cities in China but covid started up in Wuhan – coincidence? https://theconversation.com/fifty-nine-labs-around-world-handle-the-deadliest-pathogens-only-a-quarter-score-high-on-safety-161777

Data manipulation and scare tactic? WSJ puts out – https://www.wsj.com/articles/indias-covid-19-death-toll-is-likely-in-the-millions-study-finds-11626792531 which is really regurgitating this report – https://cgdev.org/publication/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic

“We reportexcess mortality estimates from three different data sources from the pandemic’s start through

June 2021. First, extrapolation of state-level civil registration from seven states suggests 3.4 million

excess deaths. Second, applying international estimates of age-specific infection fatality rates (IFR)

to Indian seroprevalence data implies a higher toll of around 4 million. Third, our analysis of the

Consumer Pyramid Household Survey, a longitudinal panel of over 800,000 individuals across all

states, yields an estimate of 4.9 million excess deaths”

Likely the numbers are low but to the extent suggested in the report very unlikely. Lets start debunking….well what we do know they have confirmed cases with deaths. They have a fatality rate of 1.34% clearly low relative to many countries but in line with Asian countries. Even if you double this number it would put it over the average of the world which is around 2% – you could get to the 3-4 Million alluded but that’s a lot more confirmations. (3.5 Million / .03 = 117 Million confirmed /1380 Million = 8.4% confirmed per capita). Potentially possible given the US sits 10% confirmation per capita but there ae many factors at play here. Number one large part of ventilation in India is through windows and fans. Their BMI is way lower – their age demographic is way lower which then supports lower fatality rates and confirmation (youth spread is much lower). MOST of Asia shows low confirmed per capita even from countries who typically would be transparent Thailand, Singapore, and South Korea (0.6%,1.1%,0.36%) – fatality rates also low (0.8%,0.1%,1.1%). Therefore to bump India up to non-Asian country seems to be disingenuous. L. America and S. America countries the report tries to allude to Brazil Peru Mexico have much higher BMI and access to drugs are much more limited than in India.

So why this report – a potential lead is to follow the money. Center for Global Development is funded by the Gates foundation – who also funds https://www.gatesfoundation.org/about/committed-grants/2017/11/opp1137437 – which is a political opponent of the current regime – perhaps a conflict of interest?

In addition Mondi has been noted to say they could get the numbers down without vaccines – this puts a big target on him. They used a war chest of drugs from HCQ and Ivermectin and local remedies – and who knows which work since no control cases but the numbers are down amazingly fast as compared to Brazil. There is some credit IF the numbers are even HALF true for the remarkable turnaround.

Clearly something is happening in terms of spread in UK, Spain etc… Below are the top countries observing large 7 Day Moving Average confirmation per capita. Sweden I put as benchmark given they did not lockdown and was criticize. Perhaps they support the Israel study that natural immunity is more sustainable?

It would be nice to say it’s just countries who haven’t vaccinated. This is not true. Deaths are certainly helped with Vaccines but the best performing for the past 7 days death is Sweden and their vaccine levels in the middle of the pack. UK deaths climbing even though 53% fully vaccinated.

Ecuador on top of the death count followed by Brazil

State view we have FL, CA, and TX leading the way

In terms of hot spots just not much out there in terms of deaths. The spread is happening regardless of vaccination levels as noted below. Vaccines helping out in deaths but seem to not significantly alter spread. They need to focus on ventilation.