Covid19mathblog.com
Personal update – fever broke Fri night. Yesterday first day since last Sunday without fever and extreme weakness feeling. 48 hours of Ivermectin or was it just the body naturally winning – who knows but the risk/reward was there.
I kept reading all throughout my sickness – largely to keep my mind strong given all the reports of losing my IQ. Anyway the study has some serious flaws in it so I wouldn’t believe the hype – else I did lose some IQ and don’t know how to read tables…. Here is the study they are all siting to fear you from getting covid – https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00324-2/fulltext#seccesectitle0013
“Findings
People who had recovered from COVID-19, including those no longer reporting symptoms, exhibited significant cognitive deficits versus controls when controlling for age, gender, education level, income, racial-ethnic group, pre-existing medical disorders, tiredness, depression and anxiety. The deficits were of substantial effect size for people who had been hospitalised (N = 192), but also for non-hospitalised cases who had biological confirmation of COVID-19 infection (N = 326). Analysing markers of premorbid intelligence did not support these differences being present prior to infection. Finer grained analysis of performance across sub-tests supported the hypothesis that COVID-19 has a multi-domain impact on human cognition.”
Most important is to understand their sample they use. https://www.thelancet.com/action/showFullTableHTML?isHtml=true&tableId=tbl0002&pii=S2589-5370%2821%2900324-2
Must be an England thing but I cant see this as being a standard population sample….
Group Not ill Ill without respiratory symptoms No home assistance Home assistance Hospitalised No ventilator Hospitalised +Ventilator
Lung conditions e.g., asthma 0.097 0.071 0.212 0.295 0.324 0.409
Right off the bat those not ill 9.7% will have some sort of lung condition? This sample might have issues with just the common cold.
Retired 0.211 0.130 0.103 0.092 0.128 0.091
Not ill 21.1% retired! That cant help the mind if you are not active doing something…..
Depression 0.126 0.140 0.216 0.382 0.243 0.341
Well depression likely not a good thing to have for the mind…..
So we have a Lung issue, retired, and depression PLUS covid leads to cognitive deficits – sounds reasonable to me – how about if they caught the flu I suspect the same result?
Effectiveness of vaccine being questioned …..https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084/amp?__twitter_impression=true
“The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling.
“We do not know exactly to what degree the vaccine helps, but it is significantly less,” Bennett said.”
“The highest number of coronavirus cases in nearly four months was diagnosed on Friday – 1,118 people, according to the Health Ministry’s Saturday night report. Of those screened, 1.58% tested positive. The reproduction rate (R), the number of people a sick person infects, stood at 1.37 – meaning that Covid-19 is spreading again.
“At the moment, around 60% of the patients in serious conditions have been vaccinated. Moreover, according to Hebrew University researchers who advise the government, around 90% of newly infected people over the age of 50 are fully vaccinated.”
In the states breakthrough grows – https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/more-than-5100-breakthrough-covid-cases-reported-in-mass-at-least-80-have-died/2435719/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&&__twitter_impression=true
“More than 5,100 Massachusetts residents have tested positive for COVID-19, despite being fully vaccinated against the virus, and at least 80 of them have died, state health officials said Tuesday night.”
“As of July 17, a total of 5,166 breakthrough cases had been reported to the state DPH. Of those, 272 people were hospitalized and survived. Of the 80 people who died, 23 died without being hospitalized; 57 died following a hospital stay.
The death toll reflects 1.54% of the 5,166 confirmed breakthrough cases and 0.0018% of the 4,307,361 Bay State residents fully vaccinated as of July 20.”
“The overwhelming majority of the reported breakthrough cases — more than 93% — did not result in either hospitalization or death. Health officials insist vaccine confidence should not be shaken, and say these numbers should be put into perspective.”
The volume of those who will get infected by covid and recover will be growing immensely. There is a value add here as natural infection IS BETTER (assuming you recover without longcovid) than vaccination. Besides previous Israel study noted here are some more studies.
“The authors of this study reported that the WT strain of SARS-CoV-2 was best neutralized by Natural Infection 2020 when compared to CoronaVac and Natural Infection 2021 sera. However, the Alpha variant was best neutralized by Natural Infection 2021 sera, when compared to CoronaVac and Natural Infection 2020 sera.
In the case of the Beta variant, this form of SARS-CoV-2 was best neutralized by Natural Infection 2020 and 2021 sera with higher NAb titer levels. Although the Delta variant was neutralized well by Natural Infection 2020 and 2021 sera, levels of NAb titers were much lower when compared with the Alpha and Beta variants.
In summary, the results of the current study indicate that NAb titers elicited by CoronaVac are much lower when compared to natural infection.”
Cleveland Clinic – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v2
“Background The purpose of this study was to evaluate the necessity of COVID-19 vaccination in persons previously infected with SARS-CoV-2.”
“Among the 52238 included employees, 1359 (53%) of 2579 previously infected subjects remained unvaccinated, compared with 22777 (41%) of 49659 not previously infected. The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection remained almost zero among previously infected unvaccinated subjects, previously infected subjects who were vaccinated, and previously uninfected subjects who were vaccinated, compared with a steady increase in cumulative incidence among previously uninfected subjects who remained unvaccinated
“Conclusions Individuals who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection are unlikely to benefit from COVID-19 vaccination, and vaccines can be safely prioritized to those who have not been infected before.”
Now WHY this article has not made mainstream is BEYOND me – we have parts of the world that could be taking the vaccine we don’t need to be taking the vaccine here when its not needed – we do have one of the highest confirmation per capita in the world – we don’t need to lead in the most vaccination per capita given that stat and the above study.
Gamma variant study – https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/10/21-1427_article
“An outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 caused by the Gamma variant of concern infected 24/44 (55%) employees of a gold mine in French Guiana (87% symptomatic, no severe forms). The attack rate was 60% (15/25) among fully vaccinated miners and 75% (3/4) among unvaccinated miners without a history of infection.”
“We describe a COVID-19 Gamma variant cluster with a high attack rate even in fully vaccinated persons. The Gamma variant is the predominant variant in French Guiana which, as of July 2021, caused a third epidemic wave, threatening to overwhelm the hospital capacity (11). Such a low vaccine efficiency against infection by the Gamma variant was not expected because in vitro studies have shown a similar reduction of neutralization for Beta or Gamma variants by BNT162b2-elicited antibodies (5) and a conserved CD4+ T-cell response against spike proteins from the Beta variant”
“In conclusion, we describe a VOC Gamma COVID-19 outbreak with a strikingly high attack rate among persons fully vaccinated with BNT162b2 vaccine. Our observation suggested that BNT162b2 protected from severe COVID-19. However, this single unexpected outbreak in a small and isolated vaccinated population requires further real-life studies on BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness against the VOC Gamma. Masking and social distancing —even among those fully vaccinated— may be necessary among persons with frequent exposure in Gamma variant–endemic zones.”
Todays conclusions breakthrough will continue to grow – I estimate over 40% given I was a perfect case who is very healthy and then seeing the real life study above. Remember all the initial efficacy studies done in a very control setting. Real world is where we live. The positive side is stay healthy be active and you can get through the covid sickness and not have to deal with another infection from covid for some time. Having recovered from Covid is BETTER than a vaccination. Recovery Passports please…..IF they want to stop spread focus on ventilation not vaccinating the youth…..
Indonesia leading deaths followed by Ecuador. Ecuador could really use our vaccines. Promoting vaccines for the youth while a country in Ecuador at 0.04% vaccinated seems to be very wrong.
FL leads the US
TN is showing a hot spot BUT its an unassigned county
