Covid19mathblog.com
Mask are back – https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/danvergano/cdc-mask-guidance-vaccinated
Mask are impactful – Georgia school mask study – https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7021e1-H.pdf
We see ventilation practice is just as important as mask wearing. More important that teachers and staff wear mask than students. Don’t waste time on desk spacing and barriers.
Another study supporting the fact natural immunity superior over vaccination – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.20.21254636v1
“The estimated vaccine effectiveness in preventing infection ≥7 days after second dose was 86% (95% CI 72-94%) but only 42% (95% CI 14-63%) ≥14 days after a single dose. No difference in vaccine effectiveness was observed between females and males. Having a prior positive test was associated with 91% (95% CI 85 to 94%) effectiveness against new infection among the unvaccinated.”
IF we are so focus on prevention and hospitalization why don’t we start targeting some of the reasons resulting in it – vs just a vaccination message? https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2021/pdf/21_0123.pdf
Interesting that anxiety and fear showing up – probably we need to temper the message if this is the case – particularly for the youth for multiple reasons beyond covid.
Not sure if you have caught my reference that vaccines could be driving worse variants given the survival desire of the virus – here is a study supporting that hypothesis – we best be very careful what we wish for – https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198
“Our data show that anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent
transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that
cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts.”
“the use of leaky vaccines can
facilitate the evolution of pathogen strains that put unvaccinated hosts at greater risk of
severe disease. The future challenge is to identify whether there are other types of vaccines
used in animals and humans that might also generate these evolutionary risks.”
A piece supporting the theory vaccination reduces transmission – data yet to show conclusively this but good points are made with focus on viral load – Ventilation and being healthy also reduces viral load where is that promotion -also focus on treatment plans that reduce viral load as an objective – https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-crucial-vaccine-benefit-were-not-talking-about-enough1/
“One possible indirect benefit of a COVID vaccine, then, may be to reduce the viral load in so-called breakthrough cases, or vaccinated people who get infected.”
“Researchers in Israel studied vaccinated people who became infected. The viral load in these breakthrough cases was about three to four times lower than the viral load among infected people who were unvaccinated. Researchers in the U.K. reported a similar result. They also found that vaccinated people who became infected tested positive for about one week less than unvaccinated people.”
More analysis of our county data – each color represents a state – but each circle is a county
Our outlier is a county in Georgia hosting Ft. Benning! Perhaps inferior vaccines given or the conditions just merit spreading. Good thing not many deaths for that county. Still no conclusive statement to say more vaccination reduces transmission in real life. There are more dispersion in the middle but that could just be because of more samples. Deaths are little more obvious to show a decline as more vaccination.
Demographic view – spread/death vs median age and income. Age which is the closest metric to health clearly slopes to high deaths as you get older. Transmission wise you kind of see that too but less. It would seem the big spreading ager is in the 35-50 category. Income shows a pattern that low income likely spread more than high income. In addition the deaths would seem to lean that direction – but probably similar to many other diseases too.
Other than San Diego the top areas of confirmation per capita have very high vaccination rates. (TX, CA, and LA – missing from vaccination county data)
Indonesia leading death chart.
US front FL leads in death and confirmation.
County hot spots – confirmation for sure picking up.
