Covid19mathblog.com
There are lots of confusion now with multiple statements going around with unknown leaks from the admin…..https://www.chron.com/news/article/Experts-ask-to-see-data-behind-new-policy-16347545.php
“New recommendations from federal health officials this week on when vaccinated Americans should don face masks came with a startling bolt of news: People who have had their shots and become infected with the delta variant of the coronavirus can harbor large amounts of virus just like unvaccinated people. That means they could become spreaders of the disease and should return to wearing masks indoors in certain situations, including when vulnerable people are present. But the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did not publish the new research.”
“Some outside scientists have their own message: Show us the data.
"They’re making a claim that people with delta who are vaccinated and unvaccinated have similar levels of viral load, but nobody knows what that means," said Gregg Gonsalves, an associate professor at the Yale School of Public Health. "It’s meaningless unless we see the data."”
“"These data were alarming and recently presented," the official said Wednesday. "We saw the data and thought it was urgent enough to act – in the context of a steeply rising, preventable fourth surge of covid-19."
Because tests showed similar levels of virus in the vaccinated and unvaccinated, the CDC inferred the delta variant can be transmitted by people with breakthrough infections.
"I think the implications [of the data] are that people who are vaccinated, even when they’re asymptomatic, can transmit the virus, which is the scientific foundation of why this recommendation is being made," Anthony Fauci”
“"You can make a reasonable assumption that vaccinated people can transmit the virus just like unvaccinated people can," Fauci said.”
“"The immune response, once activated, takes a while to kick in even among people who have been vaccinated," Hanage said in an email. "As a result if the virus can copy itself really quickly it might be able to get a few rounds of replication in, even in vaccinated folks, before the immune system brings it under control."”
“Research by Chinese scientists posted online and not yet peer-reviewed describes the stunning ability of the delta variant to replicate in the human body. The viral load from the delta is 1,000 times that detected in the earliest variants of the virus. That is about 10 times the viral load sparked by the alpha variant, which was first seen in the United Kingdom and became dominant in the United States this spring before the delta overcompeted it.”
As noted vaccines CAN have the potential to make things worse – and potentially for just a very few – but nonetheless it’s a risk that should be clear and understood by all so they can make their own educated decision. As noted on a biological standpoint vaccines can be problematic in genetic survival mutation – https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198
Another question being highlighted in the confusion above is can the potential vaccination actually makes infections more likely. THIS has occurred in the past – it is called Antibody-dependent Enhancement (ADE). Here are three articles independently discussing ADE and the history of it with vaccines.
“ADE occurs when the antibodies generated during an immune response recognize and bind to a pathogen, but they are unable to prevent infection. Instead, these antibodies act as a “Trojan horse,” allowing the pathogen to get into cells and exacerbate the immune response.”
“Most diseases do not cause ADE, but one of the best studied examples of a pathogen that can cause ADE is dengue virus. Dengue virus is one of the most common infections in the world, infecting hundreds of millions and killing tens of thousands of people each year. Unlike viruses like measles or mumps that only have one type, dengue virus has four different forms, called “serotypes.” “if that person is infected with a second serotype of dengue virus, the neutralizing antibodies generated from the first infection may bind to the virus and actually increase the virus’s ability to enter cells, resulting in ADE and causing a severe form of the disease, called dengue hemorrhagic fever.”
“On a few occasions ADE has resulted from vaccination:
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) — RSV is a virus that commonly causes pneumonia in children. A vaccine was made by growing RSV, purifying it, and inactivating it with the chemical formaldehyde. In clinical trials, children who were given the vaccine were more likely to develop or die from pneumonia after infection with RSV. As a result of this finding, the vaccine trials stopped, and the vaccine was never submitted for approval or released to the public.
Measles — An early version of measles vaccine was made by inactivating measles virus using formaldehyde. Children who were vaccinated and later became infected with measles in the community developed high fevers, unusual rash, and an atypical form of pneumonia. Upon seeing these results, the vaccine was withdrawn from use, and those who received this version of the vaccine were recommended to be vaccinated again using the live, weakened measles vaccine, which does not cause ADE and is still in use today.
Both the RSV and measles vaccines that caused ADE were tested in the 1960s. Since then, other vaccines have successfully been created by purifying and chemically inactivating the virus with formaldehyde, such as hepatitis A, rabies, and inactivated polio vaccines. These more recent vaccines do not cause ADE.”
“In 2016, a dengue virus vaccine was designed to protect against all four serotypes of the virus. The hope was that by inducing immune responses to all four serotypes at once, the vaccine could circumvent the issues related to ADE following disease with dengue virus. The vaccine was given to 800,000 children in the Philippines. Fourteen vaccinated children died after encountering dengue virus in the community. It is hypothesized that the children developed antibody responses that were not capable of neutralizing the natural virus circulating in the community. As such, the vaccine was recommended only for children greater than 9 years of age who had already been exposed to the virus.”
“Today’s routinely recommended vaccines do not cause ADE. If they did, like those described above, they would be removed from use. Phase III clinical trials are designed to uncover frequent or severe side effects before a vaccine is approved for use”
“Neither COVID-19 disease nor the new COVID-19 vaccines have shown evidence of causing ADE. People infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, have not been likely to develop ADE upon repeat exposure. This is true of other coronaviruses as well. Likewise, studies of vaccines in the laboratory with animals or in the clinical trials in people have not found evidence of ADE.” (however likely not tested with the recent variants- also conflicts with the next article which demonstrates in multiple cases in SARS-CoV)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220307311
“In this review, antibody-dependent enhancements in dengue virus and two kinds of coronavirus are summarized. Possible solutions for the effects are reported. We also speculate that ADE may exist in SARS-CoV-2.”
“Studies so far have presumed that there are five mechanisms that underlie ADE and that various viruses work under different mechanisms and are not necessarily facilitated by a single mechanism.”
“Several different kinds of coronavirus have been shown to cause disease in mammals and birds. Among these, seven are known to infect humans (Table 1), including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which has overwhelmed the whole world this year. Four of the remaining six just elicit common cold symptoms; these are human coronavirus 229E, NL63, OC43, HKU1 (Fung and Liu, 2019). All of these are known to be endemic. The final two are well known and highly pathogenic betacoronaviruses, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV).”
“Early in the last century, researchers discovered coronaviruses in animals, like feline enteric coronavirus. This is exploited by ADE because of ineffective antibodies (Takano et al., 2019), leading to an exacerbation of disease symptoms. Antibodies to feline infectious peritonitis virus also enhance infection of monocytes. It has been sequentially confirmed in subsequent studies that ADE of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV also occur, with different mechanisms. Whether ADE works in other kinds of coronavirus infections remains to be investigated.”
“SARS-CoV enters host cells by recognizing and binding to its viral receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) in the classical pathway, while antibodies neutralize the viruses by blocking the interaction of viral spike proteins and ACE2. This block was confirmed in a type of human antibody extracted from the antibody library of non-immune people early in 2004 (Sui et al., 2004). Then in 2007, Yiu Wing Kam et al. explored whether antibody against SARS-CoV viral spike protein can induce viral entry into FcR-bearing cells and evoke ADE (Kam et al., 2007). The results showed that these antibodies increase the affinity of SARS-CoV towards FcγRII-bearing cells. This increase is mediated by the Fc portion of anti-spike antibody and FcγRII on cells, while ACE2 is not required in the process. Later research by Jaume et al. in 2014 showed that antibody against SARS-CoV viral spike protein strengthened the infection towards monocytes and lymphocytes, both of which do not express viral receptors (Yip et al., 2014). This was in agreement with the results of Yiu Wing Kam’s team. In the same year, studies conducted by Chen and Huang’s team indicated that ADE is mainly induced by diluted antibodies against spike proteins rather than nucleocapsid protein(Wang et al., 2014). These studies further demonstrated that anti-spike antibodies induce ADE during SARS-CoV infection, and this effect mainly works in immune cells. In 2018, the rhesus monkey was used as an animal model to study the relationship between ADE and the antibody titer induced by vaccine. The results demonstrated that those vaccines that elicit low titers of antibody may not induce ADE after infection with SARS-CoV (Luo et al., 2018), while highly diluted serum may in turn promote the infectivity of the virus.”
“ADE may exist in SARS-CoV-2
The 2019 novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerged this year and has caused high numbers of deaths. The most recent sequencing results have shown that SARS-CoV-2 shares a similar genome sequence of up to 79.5% with SARS-CoV, and the viral receptor for both is ACE2. A team from the University of Texas found that SARS-CoV-2 has affinity for the ACE2 receptor 10–20 times that of SARS-CoV (Wrapp et al., 2020), which explains why it has a higher basic reproduction number. These results also indicate a pathogenic similarity between the two viruses.
Studies on SARS-CoV have highlighted the complexity of the role of antibodies in the pathogenesis of highly pathogenic coronaviruses (Fleming and Raabe, 2020). Not long after the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared, the heterogeneity of severe cases in Hubei Province, China and in other areas was noted and this was attributed to ADE.”
“From previous research on ADE in other coronaviruses, in particular SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, it appears that the existence of ADE will elicit more severe body injury, while actually reducing the viral load at the same time. This may affect the results of vaccine therapy. The presence of this phenomenon in these two coronaviruses indicates a potential risk in the vaccine therapy for the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, as it shares the same viral receptor and similar genome sequence with SARS-CoV. SARS-CoV-2 may have a similar mechanism of viral entry and thus may share similar mechanisms of ADE. This novel coronavirus has not long been known, so studies in this field have not yet led to any conclusions.
Previous studies have shown that different teams have sometimes given different explanations for ADE in the same virus. A possible important factor may be the late emergence of human coronaviruses that cause severe symptoms. Understanding of ADE in SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV infections has taken several years and was relatively clear till these two years. From this, we speculate that studies on ADE in this newly emerged coronavirus will take some time, but the elucidation of this effect is of great importance.”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7943455/
“Summary
Given past data on multiple SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV vaccine efforts have failed due to ADE in animal models (75, 81), it is reasonable to hypothesize a similar ADE risk for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and vaccines. ADE risks may be associated with antibody level (which can wane over time after vaccination) and also if the antibodies are derived from prior exposures to other coronaviruses. In addition, ADE with mast cells likely plays a role in MIS-C for infants and possibly older MIS-C and MIS-A patients. While expanded trophism of SARS-CoV-2 represents a possible ADE risk in the subset of COVID-19 patients with disease progression beyond the mild disease stage.”
I came across this from CDC and WHO pushing vaccines for those with natural immunity without any solid proof just statements – but why ignore major studies https://twitter.com/i/events/1420274680531800065?s=09
Studies showing natural immunity is better:
Cleveland Clinic – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v2
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.20.21254636v1
Positive news for youth vaccination – but not much timeline either – https://www.timesofisrael.com/no-major-side-effects-among-vaccinated-children-initial-data-suggests/
“Initial data from 200,000 inoculated Israeli children published on Thursday indicated that the COVID-19 vaccine has no major side effects, and almost no side effects in general.
Health official were most worried about myocarditis — an inflammation of the heart muscle — but only three such cases were observed among the 200,000 recipients of the vaccine between the ages of 12 and 15, data published by the Kan public broadcaster showed.
However, the report stressed that more data is needed with a larger sample to draw definitive conclusions.”
Indonesia continues to lead deaths followed by Brazil.
Certainly in another wave
FL leading death and confirmation
Fixed the Louisiana counties so they show up in table. They do fit the story of low vac high confirmation – but then we also have McKinely, NM at 99.9% vac but showing high confirmation rate per capita. Unlike Chattahoochee which you can say is a military base I couldn’t find a simple explanation.
Volumetric LA still leads in confirmation along with Miami Dade
