Covid19mathblog.com

Not the best of news – efficacy of Pfizer vaccine drops with delta variant – good news hospitalization/seriousness stayed relatively strong – https://fortune.com/2021/07/05/israel-data-plunge-efficacy-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-delta-variant/

“The figures show that between May 2 and June 5, the vaccine had a 94.3% efficacy rate. From June 6, five days after the government canceled coronavirus restrictions, until early July, the rate plunged to 64%. A similar decline was recorded in protection against coronavirus symptoms, the report said. At the same time, protection against hospitalization and serious illness remained strong. From May 2 to June 5, the efficacy rate in preventing hospitalization was 98.2%, compared with 93% from June 6 to July 3. A similar decline in the rate was recorded for the vaccine’s efficiency in preventing serious illness among people who had been inoculated.”

“Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla has said people will “likely” need a third dose of a Covid-19 vaccine within 12 months of getting fully vaccinated.”

More bad Pfizer press -very sad as the risk/reward was not properly assessed here – https://nypost.com/2021/07/05/michigan-boy-dies-in-his-sleep-three-days-after-getting-vaccine/

“A 13-year-old Michigan boy died in his sleep three days after receiving the coronavirus vaccine in June and the Centers for Disease Control has opened an investigation into the death, a report said on Sunday.

Jacob Clynick — who was preparing to enter high school in the fall — received his second dose of the Pfizer vaccine at a Walgreens in Zilwaukee, Mich. on June 13, his aunt told the Detroit Free Press.

Jacob was healthy and had no underlying health conditions. In the two days following the second jab, the only side effects he had experienced were the same ones most others had to deal with: fatigue and fever.

On June 15, two nights after receiving the second dose, Jacob complained of a stomach ache before going to sleep and never woke up.”

“The American Academy of Pediatrics agreed, calling the ailment “an extremely rare side effect,” adding that most cases are not severe and people normally recover without treatment.”

What if besides a vaccine you just get a common cold to build your immunity – as noted living too clean is not good for you – https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/mild-covid19-prior-exposure-common-cold-coronavirus-stanford/

“A new study from Stanford University researchers has found previous recent exposure to common coronaviruses could help explain why some people infected with SARS-CoV-2 only suffer mild symptoms. The research showed specific immune cells from patients with mild cases of COVID-19 exhibit signs of prior encounters with common-cold-causing coronaviruses”

““It may be that patients with severe COVID-19 hadn’t been infected, at least not recently, by gentler coronavirus strains, so they didn’t retain effective memory killer T cells,” hypothesizes Davis. The new study offers some clues to why children have been less susceptible to severe COVID-19. Prior research has suggested the frequency of recent exposure to common coronaviruses in children could play a role in reducing disease severity, and Davis believes his new findings back up that hypothesis.

“Sniffles and sneezes typify the daycare setting and coronavirus-caused common colds are a big part of the reason,” he says. “As many as 80 percent of kids in the United States get exposed within the first couple of years of life.” A recent study from researchers at Johns Hopkins Medicine found this compelling cross-reactive immune response between SARS-CoV-2 and common coronaviruses could mean COVID-19 vaccines generate a small degree of protection against the common cold.”

Another country throws in the white towel – https://apnews.com/article/europe-coronavirus-pandemic-business-health-government-and-politics-650b09e7babe362e1777606e6b1a369b

“British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to unveil plans Monday to scrap mandatory mask-wearing and social distancing in England in two weeks’ time, despite surging coronavirus infections driven by the highly contagious delta variant.

Johnson said he would set out how the country would “learn to live with this virus” — a major shift in tone from a leader who has previously painted COVID-19 as an enemy to be vanquished.”

Imagine if they just gave out Vitamin D for free in hotspots -7X improvement -….note Fauci was taking it – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.04.21258358v1.full.pdf

“Of 1176 patients admitted, 253 had VitD levels prior to COVID-19 infection. Compared with mildly or

moderately diseased patients, those with severe or critical COVID-19 disease were more likely to have

pre-infection vitamin D deficiency of less than 20 ng/mL (OR=14.30, 95%, 4.01-50.9; p < .001); be older

(OR=1.039 for each year, 95% CI for OR, 1.017-1.061; p< .01), and have diabetes (OR=2.031, 95% CI

for OR, 1.04-3.36; p= 0.038). Vitamin D deficiency was associated with higher rates of mortality

(p<0.001) and comorbidities including COPD (p=0.006), diabetes (p=0.026), and hypertension (p

=0.016).

Conclusions:

Among hospitalized COVID-19 patients, pre-infection deficiency of vitamin D was associated with

increased disease severity and mortality.”

Nothing like a holiday weekend for low numbers….not one country over 1K death

Russia, S. Africa, and UK are seeing confirmation rise

Not much reporting in the US over the weekend

Death reporting looks to have taken a break.