Covid 8/14/21 | COVID 19 Information Page

Covid19mathblog.com

Perhaps what makes this a “perfect” virus from China is not the viral lethality of it (1.7% US fatality rate) – but the ability to break the country apart via the debate of vaccination. As noted in this opinion piece the focus of immunity and immune health perhaps is the right “passport” – https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/why-covid-19-vaccines-should-not-be-required-for-all-americans

“instead of talking about the vaccinated and the unvaccinated, we should be talking about the immune and the non-immune. Immunity is something people can test for with a simple antibody test. I would never recommend that anyone intentionally acquire the infection in order to get natural immunity, but vaccine passports and proof-of-vaccine documents should recognize it.

Now, if someone does not have natural immunity from prior infection, then they should immediately go out and get the vaccine. I’m pro-vaccine. But the issue of the appropriate clinical indication of the vaccine is not an all-or-nothing phenomenon, as we frequently see in American culture and politics.

I’m perplexed at the vitriol directed at folks who are reluctant to get vaccinated. For some, the biggest driver of their hesitancy is the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which has failed to issue the long-overdue full approval of the COVID-19 vaccines due to stability testing which has nothing to do with safety. The goal of our pandemic response should be to reduce death, illness and disability, but instead what you’re seeing is a movement that has morphed from being pro-vaccine to vaccine fanaticism at all costs.”

He fails to note or even push harder the message should not be vaccination – but to get healthy. We should promote vaccines for those that are far from healthy – but there is a path to get healthy in 1 month. Fat Sick and Nearly Dead Documentary showed/proved it can be done – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1z5WjjVL5c

In the last blog https://covid19mathblog.com/2021/08/covid-8-7-21/ we showed being obese increases your propensity to be a carrier of the virus – I would contend more than a healthy young unvaccinated person. The vitriol for the unvaccinated is inconsistent with how the health of society has crumbled. The excuse is Covid is transmissible and will have significant impact to the hospital load. Perhaps obesity doesn’t spread via a virus – but it does spread via society acceptance and continued propaganda of unhealthy food. AND for sure it has significant impact on hospital load.

A compromised vaccination report documenting that those previously infected can get just 1 shot….https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2782762

“individuals with a documented prior COVID-19 infection may be sufficiently protected from reinfection after a single mRNA vaccine dose, which could free up availability of millions of additional doses. We evaluated the SARS-CoV-2 spike immunoglobin (Ig) G antibody levels after 1 and 2 BNT162b2 doses in previously infected individuals compared with those without previous infection.”

The youth vaccination push is irrational given the risk/reward profile. It is one thing to contract the disease through chance (11% confirmed/capita for US) and then suffer the issues with it – vs. to purposely subject your child to an issue and develop issues from that – the guilt has to be way larger. Vaccination for a youth is not clear cut. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2783052?

“Conclusions and Relevance In this small case series study, myocarditis was diagnosed in children after COVID-19 vaccination, most commonly in boys after the second dose. In this case series, in short-term follow-up, patients were mildly affected. The long-term risks associated with postvaccination myocarditis remain unknown. Larger studies with longer follow-up are needed to inform recommendations for COVID-19 vaccination in this population”

NPR debating the CDC? In this article evolutionary biologist and biostatistician Tom Wenseleers at the University of Leuven in Belgium argue that CDC is overstating. Should govt overstate for the “benefit” of society or should they just be more factual and wish for the best from society? Surprise the article is not banned on the internet by now…. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/11/1026190062/covid-delta-variant-transmission-cdc-chickenpox

“When scientists measure a virus’s transmissibility, they often use what’s known as R0, or "R nought. " It’s the number of people a sick person will infect when the entire population is vulnerable to the virus.

"So it’s the virus’s potential of spreading, given ideal conditions for the virus, when no one has any immunity," says computational biologist Karthik Gangavarapu at the Scripps Research Institute.

For example, the flu has an R0 of about two. Each person infected with flu passes the virus on to two people on average. Some people will infect more than two people, and some will infect fewer. But over time, the average will be about two.”

“Chickenpox, on the other hand, is way more contagious, Gangavarapu says. Chickenpox has an R0 of about nine or 10. So each person with chickenpox infects about 10 other people on average. Outbreaks are explosive.

For SARS-CoV-2, the R0 has actually risen over the course of the pandemic as the virus evolved. When the coronavirus first emerged in 2019, SARS-CoV-2 was slightly more contagious than flu, Gangavarapu says. "The initial COVID-19 strain had an R0 between two and three."”

"For the delta variant, the R0 is now calculated at between six and seven," Wenseleers says. So it’s two- to three-times as contagious as the original version of SARS-CoV-2 (R0 = 2 to 3) but less contagious than the chickenpox (R0 = 9 to 10).”

“So why did the CDC say the delta variant was "just as transmissible as" the chickenpox?

For one, the leaked document underestimated the R0 for chickenpox and overestimated the R0 for the delta variant. "The R0 values for delta were preliminary and calculated from data taken from a rather small sample size," a federal official told NPR. The value for the chickenpox (and other R0s in the slideshow) came from a graphic from The New York Times, which wasn’t completely accurate.

"At the end of the day, this delta variant is much more transmissible than the alpha variant," the official added. "That’s the message people need to take from this." The official requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media on this topic.

The difference between an R0 of three and six is massive. For example, with the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, one person would infect about three people, and each of those people would infect three more. So after only two rounds of transmission, cases would rise by nine (3 x 3 = 9). After three rounds, cases would rise by 27 (3 x 3 x 3 = 27). But with the delta variant, the first person would infect six others, who would each then infect six more people. So after two rounds of transmission, cases would already rise by 36 (6 x 6 = 36). After three rounds, cases would surge by 216 (6 x 6 x 6 = 216).

With an R0 of six, delta will be extremely difficult to slow down unless populations reach high levels of vaccination, Wenseleers says. And even then surges in cases will still occur, as is now happening in Iceland and parts of the U.S. The vaccine is less than 90% effective at stopping infections with delta, meaning at least 1 in 10 people could have breakthrough infections. And vaccinated people can still spread the virus. In addition, people who aren’t vaccinated have a very high risk of infection, Wenseleers says. "Anyone that chooses not to get vaccinated will in all likelihood get infected by the delta variant over the coming months."”

Not the best news for vaccines…good for moderna as they are “beating” Pfizer vacccines in VE 76% vs 42%….the message really needs to be get healthy…also PLEASE review demographic data in all studies.. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1.full.pdf

“The effectiveness against infection was lower for mRNA-1273 (76%, 95% CI: 58-87%) compared

to prior months, with an even more pronounced reduction for BNT162b2 (42%, 95% CI: 13-

62%) (Figure 2A; Table 3). Importantly, the effectiveness of mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2

against COVID-19 associated hospitalization has remained more consistently high (Figure

2B, Table 4)”

“These cohorts are not demographically

representative of the American population (Table 1, Table S1), which may limit the

generalizability of our findings”

More vaccine reviews – https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/eu-drugs-regulator-looking-new-possible-side-effects-mrna-vaccines-2021-08-11/

“Three new conditions reported by a small number of people after vaccination with COVID-19 shots from Pfizer (PFE.N) and Moderna (MRNA.O) are being studied to assess if they may be possible side-effects, Europe’s drugs regulator said on Wednesday.”

A very informative article – good read for those interested in variants…somber ending – https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/dissecting-the-unusual-biology-of-the-sars-cov-2-delta-variant-69068

Good news for school opening – https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-study-finds-lower-prevalence-in-schools

“A coronavirus (COVID-19) study has found that prevalence of the virus was lower in schools in June 2021 than in the autumn term 2020.”

Herd immunity a myth…but yet the only answer is vaccines…what about getting healthy? …https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/12/herd-immunity-is-mythical-with-the-covid-delta-variant-experts-say.html

“Achieving herd immunity with Covid vaccines when the highly infectious delta variant is spreading is “not a possibility,” a leading epidemiologist said.”

“What was important, Altmann said, was that “the more people on the globe effectively vaccinated, the fewer viral copies we’ll have on the planet, thus the less spread and fewer lungs in which for virus to mutate and spread the next wave of variants.””

Indonesia continues to lead – positive news no other country above 1K deaths