Covid19mathblog.com
TX vs NY comparison for some reason seems to be an important comparison – but its not apples to apples….
“Texas has passed New York to become the state with the second-most COVID-19 deaths, a feat experts say was driven by an inability to control transmission of the virus here.”
Well one part of the inability to control is the border issue – https://www.hendersonvillestandard.com/news/national/texas-border-city-sues-biden-administration-over-illegal-immigration/article_5baf223d-f576-5d16-9f41-8e690583689b.html
““As Laredo is an underserved medical community with limited resources, it simply cannot accommodate a surge in COVID-19 positives,” the complaint states. The sheer volume of people being brought to a city with a population of 262,000 could expose “the community and fellow citizens to this deadly virus during their travels all over the country,” city officials argue.
“The release of people who are COVID-19 positive and/or have been exposed to someone who is COVID-19 positive poses a danger that this city and country have endeavored to remedy since the inception of this pandemic,” the complaint states.”
With 17% of deaths from border counties with less than 10% of population this issue is beyond just the standard TX vs. NY setup. Fatality rate in Mexico one of the worse in the world at 8.4% vs. Canada at 1.9% – don’t think Canadians rushing into NY to get medical assistance….
To vaccinate the youth or not? This study high level says the issues are rare – BUT the numbers are not as rare as you may think – they stopped J&J for much less likelihood. I wouldn’t take these odds given limited reward (young youth generally do not experience issues with covid infection) . How in the world do they conclude what they conclude with these results? https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e1.htm?s_cid=mm7031e1_w
“What are the implications for public health practice?
Mild local and systemic reactions are common among adolescents following Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, and serious adverse events are rare. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices conducted a risk-benefit assessment and continues to recommend the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for all persons aged ≥12 years.”
THE MATH 14/9246 = 0.15% chance to DIE from taking vac 849/9246=9% chance for a SERIOUS outcome – really you want to recommend it still for the youth who doesn’t really benefit?
The other reason to push the youth to take the vaccine is to reduce transmission with no proof. Back in December it was demonstrated children spread covid 50% less – https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/12/covid-12-11-20/
“This 40,000-person study found that children under 15 were about half as likely as adults to be infected, and only half as likely as adults to transmit the virus to others. Almost all the coronavirus transmissions to children came from adults.”
Licorice time – https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33918301/
“We demonstrated that glycyrrhizin potently inhibits SARS-CoV-2 replication in vitro. Furthermore, we uncovered the underlying mechanism and showed that glycyrrhizin blocks the viral replication by inhibiting the viral main protease Mpro that is essential for viral replication. Our data indicate that the consumption of glycyrrhizin-containing products such as licorice root tea of black licorice may be of great benefit for SARS-CoV-2 infected people. Furthermore, glycyrrhizin is a good candidate for further investigation for clinical use to treat COVID-19 patients.”
Interesting article reviewing the demographics of the unvaccinated – certainly not clear cut as social media would indicate it as uneducated trump supporters – https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/31/us/virus-unvaccinated-americans.html
At the same time you can see it in the data – https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/
“As of July 19, less than half of Black and Hispanic people have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose in the vast majority of states reporting data. The vaccination rate for Black people is less than 50% in 38 of 42 reporting states, including 14 states where less than a third of Black people have received one or more doses. Similarly, less than half of Hispanic people have received a COVID-19 vaccine dose in 34 of 40 reporting states, including 10 states where less than a third have received at least one dose. At least half of White people have received a COVID-19 vaccine dose in 17 of 42 states.”
Indonesia continues to top the death charts – they are trying to reduce it – https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/indonesia-distributes-medicines-for-free-as-daily-covid-19-infections-soar-to-56757
“Indonesia’s food and drug agency has authorised ivermectin for emergency use against Covid-19, Reuters reported, although the World Health Organisation, as well as European and the US regulators did not recommend its use for Covid-19 patients.”
The positive note the world fatality rate has dropped in all regions since the beginning. But this could be more reporting of confirmations per more access to testing.
FL and TX leads in the US
In terms of concentration on a per capita basis we see Nassau FL leading – even with a 51.5% vaccination rate for 18 and older.
On a absolute we have LA leading followed by Miami Dade
