Covid19mathblog.com

Can we admit there is more than deaths at risk to covid – can we also admit there is great risk to other parts of life beyond infection to covid in our approach to preventing covid? First hand I have seen the psychological damage done to my teenage kids. A top straight A student to doesn’t care about school nearly failing. In every day life before covid we managed the risk/reward. The unknown of covid correctly made us respond perhaps irrationally but we have the data now. What if we knew ahead of time that the vaccine were not going to be as effective? Would we have approached the problem differently? Would we have promoted health over quarantine – could we have made people eat healthier and exercise knowing that was ALL that could be done to save them? Telling people to stay home resulted in stress eating and watching Netflix may likely have done more harm than good. My latest thoughts on the surge of sickness is the concept the immune system is a muscle – use it or lose it. What do you expect if you are inside and separated from society and dosed with hand sanitizers – then a year later you go out into society…..what do you expect? Its like doing 50 push ups a day then stopping for a year and then expecting to do even 20?

Articles are coming out to really questioning our approach – if we don’t question we won’t learn.

Testing pointless now? Perhaps even vaccination….get healthy! https://amp.smh.com.au/world/europe/astrazeneca-lead-scientist-says-delta-makes-mass-testing-pointless-in-uk-20210811-p58hpe.html?

“The Delta variant of COVID-19 has wrecked any chance of herd immunity, according to the Oxford scientist who led the AstraZeneca vaccine team, as he called for an end to mass testing so Britain could start to live with the virus.”

“Professor Andrew Pollard, who led the Oxford vaccine team, said it was clear that the Delta variant can still infect people who have been vaccinated, which made herd immunity impossible to reach, even with Britain’s high uptake.”

““We don’t have anything that will stop transmission, so I think we are in a situation where herd immunity is not a possibility, and I suspect the virus will throw up a new variant that is even better at infecting vaccinated individuals.””

“Analysis by Public Health England has shown that when vaccinated people catch the virus, they have a similar viral load to unvaccinated individuals, and may be as infectious.”

““We need to move away from reporting infections to actually reporting the number of people who are ill. Otherwise we are going to be frightening ourselves with very high numbers that don’t translate into disease burden.””

““I think as we look at the adult population going forward, if we continue to chase community testing and are worried about those results, we’re going to end up in a situation where we’re constantly boosting to try and deal with something which is not manageable,” he said.”

““It needs to be moving to clinically driven testing in which people are willing to get tested and treated and managed, rather than lots of community testing. If someone is unwell, they should be tested, but for their contacts, if they’re not unwell, then it makes sense for them to be in school and being educated.””

“Dr Ruchi Sinha, consultant paediatrician at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, told MPs and peers that choosing not to vaccinate children would be unlikely to cause problems in the health service.

“What matters is the burden of patient hospitalisation and critical care and actually there hasn’t been as much with this Delta variant,” she said. “They tend to be the children who have got their comorbidities, obesity, or severe neurological problems and those children are already considered for vaccination. COVID-19 on its own in paediatrics is not the problem.”

What have we done to the current youth and the future….the good news the stress from the mom is not materially past to the child – there is hope…. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.10.21261846v1.full

“The human brain is unique in its prolonged developmental timeline [13, 14]. Infants are born with relatively immature brains that, like them, are simultaneously competent and vulnerable. Infants are inherently competent in their ability to initiate relationships, explore, seek meaning, and learn; but are vulnerable and depend entirely on caregivers for their survival, emotional security, modeling of behaviors, and the nature and rules of the physical and socio-cultural world that they inhabit [15]. The infant brain is likewise born with immense capacity to learn, remodel, and adapt, but is sensitive and vulnerable to neglect and environmental exposures that begin even before birth [16-18]. Optimal brain development depends on secure and trusting relationships with knowledgeable caregivers who are responsive to the infant’s needs and interests. Neurodevelopmental processes, including myelination and synaptogenesis, for example, are stimulated by external cues and experiences like maternal interaction, and physical skin-to-skin “kangaroo” care, touch, and warmth [19-22]. The brain’s adaptive plasticity, however, is a double-edged sword. While positive and enriching environments can promote healthy brain development [23-27], neglect insecurity, stress, and lack of stimulation can impair maturing brain systems and disrupt cognitive and behavioral outcomes”

“Maternal stress, anxiety, and depression in pregnancy can impact the developing fetal and infant brain structure and connectivity, leading to potential delays in motor, cognitive, and behavioral development [31, 32]. It is believed that alterations in fetal exposure to stress-related hormones, including cortisol, affect theses changes in brain structure and function [33-35]. Past analysis has revealed strong associations between maternal prenatal stress and anxiety related to maternal or paternal displacement and job loss and infant health (birth weight and gestation duration), mortality, temperament, and cognitive development [36]. Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, maternal and paternal job-loss, employment furloughs, or increased food / housing insecurity have been experienced by many families. Survey results at the beginning of the pandemic showed significantly increased rates of clinically relevant symptoms of maternal depression and anxiety”

“Overall, we find that measured verbal, non-verbal, and overall cognitive scores are significantly lower since the beginning of the pandemic. Looking further, we find that children born before the pandemic and followed through the initial stages do not show a reduction in skills or performance, but rather that young infants born since the beginning of the pandemic show significantly lower performance than in-fants born before January 2019. Thus, our results seem to suggest that early development is impaired by the environmental conditions brought on by the pandemic.

In contrast to other on-going studies through the pandemic [37, 39], we did not find an increase in general maternal stress and, thus, this was not a significant predictor factor in our analysis.”

Another study indicating blood group O showing lower risk for Covid – and now perhaps an explanation – The good news O group represents ~40-50%….bad news A 40% https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0753332221000135

“Free unbound iron possibly contributes to the hypercoagulation and inflammation found in severe COVID-19.

The nonapoptotic and immunogenic cell death “ferroptosis” may be a potential contributor to the pathogenesis of COVID-19.

The bioactive compound lactoferrin and other iron chelators may provide a high therapeutic value in the treatment of COVID-19.

The relatively lower risk for COVID-19 found in individuals with blood group O may be linked to a lower serum iron status in these individuals.”
“Interestingly, increasing evidence is rapidly emerging on the association between blood groups and COVID-19 infection, with blood type A individuals being at the highest risk and those of blood type O at the lowest risk for developing the disease”

“A few studies reported that some serum iron indicators are lower in individuals with blood group O compared to those with other blood groups”

“Since iron overload contributes to COVID-19, one of the potential treatments used is lactoferrin (Lf). This glycoprotein has remained a part of the body’s natural immunity due to its range of therapeutic effects”

“Another method of treating iron overload lies in the usage of iron chelators. Excessive amounts of free iron in the blood of patients with iron overload can cause cardiac iron toxicity due to a rise in ROS production. This has been treated with the chelators, including deferoxamine, deferasirox, and deferiprone; each with different properties that may determine their efficiency in relation to treating iron overload.”

More proof no need shame the unvaccinated – they are not causing anymore harm than those vaccinated. One could argue they could be overwhelming the healthcare system BUT also being obese, smoking, drinking, drug abuse ALSO overwhelm the health system. It also promotes wearing face mask forever….but does it balance the psychological issues- I don’t know…. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v2

“Using PCR threshold cycle (Ct) data from a single large contract laboratory, we show that individuals in Wisconsin, USA had similar viral loads in nasal swabs, irrespective of vaccine status, during a time of high and increasing prevalence of the Delta variant. Infectious SARS-CoV-2 was isolated from 51 of 55 specimens (93%) with Ct <25 from both vaccinated and unvaccinated persons, indicating that most individuals with Ct values in this range (Wilson 95% CI 83%-97%) shed infectious virus regardless of vaccine status. Notably, 68% of individuals infected despite vaccination tested positive with Ct <25, including at least 8 who were asymptomatic at the time of testing. Our data substantiate the idea that vaccinated individuals who become infected with the Delta variant may have the potential to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. Vaccinated individuals should continue to wear face coverings in indoor and congregate settings, while also being tested for SARS-CoV-2 if they are exposed or experience COVID-like symptoms.”

Covid treatment potential – https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/a-readily-available-drug-may-help-fight-covid-19

“Laboratory studies indicate that a cheap generic drug reduces SARS-CoV-2 infection in human cells by up to 70%.

The drug, called fenofibrate, regulates cholesterol levels but also destabilizes the spike protein on SARS-CoV-2 and inhibits binding to human cells.

It was effective against all the SARS-CoV-2 variants that the scientists tested in vitro.”

Irrational response – https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/19/well/live/coronavirus-restaurants-classrooms-salons.html

“Intuition tells us a plastic shield would be protective against germs. But scientists who study aerosols, air flow and ventilation say that much of the time, the barriers don’t help and probably give people a false sense of security. And sometimes the barriers can make things worse.

Research suggests that in some instances, a barrier protecting a clerk behind a checkout counter may redirect the germs to another worker or customer. Rows of clear plastic shields, like those you might find in a nail salon or classroom, can also impede normal air flow and ventilation.

Under normal conditions in stores, classrooms and offices, exhaled breath particles disperse, carried by air currents and, depending on the ventilation system, are replaced by fresh air roughly every 15 to 30 minutes. But erecting plastic barriers can change air flow in a room, disrupt normal ventilation and create “dead zones,” where viral aerosol particles can build up and become highly concentrated.”

Noted before but once again there is something going on with vaccine which if given to the group who already has less chance to be infected or even harmed by Covid – it does question giving dose to young females – https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-Covid-vaccines-may-affect-periods.-Are-we-allowed-to-talk-about-this/amp

“Millions of British women have been jabbed, so 30,304 reports will be a tiny proportion: a negligible number, you might say. But it doesn’t seem negligible if you’re one of those women. I imagine many will keep a record of their cycle, perhaps in their diary or on an app, and will have noticed a change. In the US, one research survey tracking menstrual changes brought on by the Covid jabs received 140,000 responses. The two biological anthropologists conducting the research said they had expected to receive around 500 when they launched their survey.

The real number of cases in the UK is possibly quite a bit higher than 30,304. But it is awkward talking about what the jab has done to our periods. Friends tell me they’ve also been affected and nope, they didn’t report it either. Nobody wants to be thought of as hysterical. Emotional. A tad neurotic. So instead these conversations are going on discreetly, on WhatsApp chats, on internet threads, in hushed tones. Who wants to be accused of being a dreaded ‘anti-vaxxer’?

Is it ‘anti-vaxx’ to be concerned that these jabs may be having an effect on our menstrual cycles?”

Moderna issues? Not very much talked about had to find this article behind a paywall someone archived it so you can see it – https://archive.is/4TH8s

“Federal health officials are investigating emerging reports that the Moderna coronavirus vaccine may be associated with a higher risk of a heart condition called myocarditis in younger adults than previously believed, according to two people familiar with the review who emphasized the side effect still probably remains uncommon.

The investigation, which involves the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is focusing on Canadian data that suggests the Moderna vaccine may carry a higher risk for young people than the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, especially for males below the age of 30 or so. The authorities also are scrutinizing data from the United States to try to determine whether there is evidence of an increased risk from Moderna in the U.S. population.”

““We have not come to a conclusion on this,” one of the people familiar with the investigation said. “The data are not slam bang.””

“One individual said the Canadian data, which was provided by that country’s government, indicates that there might be a 2½ times higher incidence of myocarditis in those who get Moderna compared with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Myocarditis is an inflammation of the heart.

The myocarditis side effect is extremely rare and even if it is more likely in people receiving the Moderna vaccine, it probably is still very uncommon. Officials want to be careful not to cause alarm among the public, especially when officials are trying to persuade more people to be vaccinated amid a surge of cases fueled by the fast-moving delta variant.”

The US surges to the top of 7 day confirmation. Indonesia still leading the death chart. US confirmation per capita is getting up there. Note the Princess Diamond level is 20% which was our worse case scenario.

The US for sue in a 4th wave – this did happen last summer

We are testing more than we did last summer – but double the confirmation vs last summer- death very similar to last year. However I would contend vs. last year not as much quarantine and yet at the same number. Same three states lead as last summer.

FL, TX, and CA

Per capita county data still doesn’t show clearly the vaccinated or unvaccinated is the main driver….likely lifestyle playing the larger part. The south has been warm people inside more often.

Death is still not showing up a lot like in the winter. We have a few months left to get healthy before the real Covid season hits.