Covid19mathblog.com

The big news is the FDA advisors voted to approve Pfizer vaccine for 5-11 yr old 17-0 with one abstention https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/26/health/covid-19-young-kids-vaccine-fda-discussion/index.html

“Pfizer has cut its vaccine to one-third of the adult dose for the children under 12 and said clinical trials showed this lower dose protected children well against symptomatic infection. The hope is it will cause fewer side-effects.”

“"We’ve identified a lower dose which we expect is going to decrease the frequency of the rare side effect of myocarditos," said Dr. Arnold Monto, chairman of the committee an a professor of epidemiology at the University of Michgan.

"I am just worried that if we say yes, then the states are going to mandate administration of this vaccine for children to go to school and I do not agree with that," said Dr. Cody Meissner, a professor of pediatrics at Tufts University School of Medicine. "I think that would be an error at this time."

But Dr. Peter Marks, who heads the FDA’s vaccine arm, the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said that was unlikely.”

Here is release with the abstained persons notes – https://www.aappublications.org/news/2021/10/26/fda-pfizer-covid-vaccine-children-102621

“Michael G. Kurilla, M.D., Ph.D., director of the Division of Clinical Innovation at the National Center for Advancing Translation Sciences, abstained from the vote saying the immunobridging studies did not convince him the vaccine would provide long-term protection, and he feels children who have been infected don’t need two doses.

“I think the idea of doing under an emergency use authorization, two doses for everybody without any flexibility around this, I think is just not going to go over very well and I don’t think it’s going to give the health care community the options and parents the options to choose what’s best for their children,” he said.

Some vaccine committee members expressed a preference for limiting the vaccine to children with high-risk conditions, which CDC data showed were present in about two-thirds of hospitalized children ages 5-11 years. However, the committee was asked to vote only on whether the benefits outweigh the risks for all children. The CDC will have more latitude to determine whether the vaccine is recommended for a smaller group of children.”

The above are keypoints to understand. Adult vaccines are 3X more voluminous. We know some 11 yr olds are larger than some adults. We also know adults vary greatly in size – perhaps the vaccine effects are important to small young adults too? Should vaccines not be size specific – perhaps this is causing the efficacy to drop per large obese adults and perhaps additional side effects because of smaller fit adults taking too much of the vaccine?

The wishful thinking this will not be a mandate – is very pathetic. Clearly it will be mandated as people naturally want easy solutions to fix complicated problems.

What are we trying to fix with vaccinating the youth? Deaths and Hospitalization – this is not as a result of this age group – the death impact for this will be super minimal with deaths not even 1% of all covid deaths – ages 5-11 = 166 . https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics

Hospitalization for this age group for covid very low at estimates of 0.1%-2% AND noted above 2/3 of hospitalized were those at high-risk to begin with https://www.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

Could it be to minimize transmission? Once again multiple studies have indicated youths are not the cause of transmission in schools https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28753/w28753.pdf

Best for the child long-term immunity? – no studies have shown they are better off getting covid https://insight.jci.org/articles/view/150909

Help minimize variants? Well perhaps it could actually cause variants – note 2015 study – https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198

“Vaccines that keep hosts alive but still allow transmission could thus allow very virulent strains to circulate in a population.”

In addition, we do have history and history has shown the variants of concern are Delta from India and Lambda from Peru – what do they have in common low vaccination and poor hygiene (limited plumbing!).

Imagine if vaccinating the youth and offering boosters to the healthy young takes away from the potential to vaccinate an elderly adult in one of these types of country. Its not imagine – it is and will happen. We have finite manufacturing – if we continue to vaccinate those with VERY little impact we are essentially valuing our youth/fit adults at over 1000+X than an elderly person in another country.

Assuming we are that selfish – imagine if we did help those countries in the beginning from improving vaccinations and hygiene and that Delta was never created – imagine how many lives could have been saved.

Human behavior has been seriously discounted in understanding how this virus is being transmitted. So many people showing studies show this lab result showed this level of viral load etc…but all that is minor compared to the human behavior aspect. Lower viral load may increase your odds of not transmitting but at some point in time in a room enclosed you will likely transmit Delta. You give people a “passport” what do you think the behavior becomes – do you think they get concern about a sniffle – do they test often? – Being unvaccinated will likely make you more cautious. I for one had more bravado after my vaccination – perhaps leading to my breakthrough.

Here is a perfect article highlighting behavior – https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/leaked-government-report-finds-vaccine-passports-could-actually-increase-spread-covid

“According to the report, compiled by the the Department of Digital, Culture, Media and Sport [DCMS], introducing the scheme could actually have the opposite intended effect.

“If certification displaces some fans from structured and well ventilated sports stadia, this could lead to them attending unstructured and poorly ventilated pubs instead, where they will have access to more alcohol than if there were in the stadia,” states the report.

“Evidence from the Euros showed spikes in cases associated with pubs even when England were playing abroad.””

“Another example of how vaccine passports are largely useless is the fact that providing a negative test is no longer being offered as an option, despite the fact that the vaccinated can still transmit the virus.

As we highlight in the video below, people visiting nightclubs in Ireland had to be vaccinated to get in, but were then told that masks were not required while dancing.”

In the end these behaviors have one thing in common – an environment that allowed transmission – why not focus on fixing the environment vs the person? Ventilation!

Collateral damage from policy – https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/10/26/1046432435/ers-are-now-swamped-with-seriously-ill-patients-but-most-dont-even-have-covid

“Even in parts of the country where COVID-19 isn’t overwhelming the health system, patients are showing up to the ER sicker than they were before the pandemic, their diseases more advanced and in need of more complicated care.”

The dirt is coming – we all have skeletons some more than others – perhaps all have shades of truths but certainly not as angelic as the media likes to make him. I am not noting for the sake of bashing but the fact to understand that perhaps some shady things did happen at Wuhan Institute of Virology that could have cause this issue and as a result of the US funding – not just a China rogue scientist. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/10/wasnt-just-beagles-monkeys-faucis-nih-also-funded-medical-experiments-aids-orphans-ny-city/

“Dr. Fauci funded a study in Tunisia where beagle dogs were eaten alive by parasite-infected flies.”

“Dr. Fauci also spent over $16 million in taxpayer funds on disturbing “toxic brain injection” experiments on monkeys in 2018.”

“Dr. Fauci was more recently caught funding gain-of-function research in Wuhan, China laboratory blamed for the production and leak of the coronavirus.

Fauci lied about his funding of the lab under oath numerous times.”

“Dr. Fauci’s NIH was also caught funding experiments on AIDS orphans at a New York City hospital in 2004.”

Vaccination per capita vs confirmation per capita – country basis – note Singapore

Singapore had a lot of praise in the beginning for its strict lockdown – now its feeling some pain even though vaccination rates are very high.

Russia showing a strong second in deaths. UK confirmation actually higher than Russia – but they do in fact test more and do test asymptomatic people.

TX leading both confirmations and death but this will start changing.

On a per capita basis you are seeing the north show up